I freely admit there is a ton of time between now and November, but Gallup's first head-to-head numbers are out and they are not good for Obama.


The telling stat is where the indy vote is going -- 45 to 39 in favor of Romney.

I am no fan of popularity polls. They tend to not serve any particular candidate well and can swing on a whim. But where this could possibly play out is the state-to-state electoral battle. That's going to be the polling to watch, especially in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Romney takes FL and one of the other two, and it's really hard for Obama to catch up mathematically.

It's already a very close race, judging by RCP's Electoral Map .....