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01-21-2012, 07:09 PM #1
Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
The following table shows various scenarios that improve the Ravens’ chances of beating the Pats and reaching the Super Bowl.
Scenario
Scenario ProbabilityRavens WinDefense allows <350 yards, forces >1 turnover20.9%47.8%Defense allows <350 yards, forces >2 turnovers12.8%57.9%Ray Rice rushes >75 yards38.6%49.1%Ray Rice rushes >100 yards21.7%59.3%
Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...ts_49ers012012Sent from my Linux workstation.
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
You left out the overall Accuscore tabulations that show a Patriots victory 68.7% of the time out of 10,000 simulations. 31.3% chance of a victory for the Ravens isn't too bad of odds. Listening to the talking heads this week you'd think it was 97% in Patriots favor.
"A lot" is a two word expression denoting a great deal or greatly, as in "I like sunshine a lot." "Alot" is a lovable imaginary grammar monster. You can love a lot; you can love an alot; you can love alots a lot; but they are not the same thing.
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01-21-2012, 07:28 PM #3
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Last week accuscore picked saints, pats, ravens, packers so they went 2 for 4. I did better than that by picking niners. Just saying it's interesting but doesn't mean a lot.
World Domination 3 Points at a Time!
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01-21-2012, 07:46 PM #5
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
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01-21-2012, 08:13 PM #8
Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
So the Ravens should force more than two turnovers, hold New England to less than 350 yards, and make sure Ray Rice rushes for over 100 yards. Okay.
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
"A lot" is a two word expression denoting a great deal or greatly, as in "I like sunshine a lot." "Alot" is a lovable imaginary grammar monster. You can love a lot; you can love an alot; you can love alots a lot; but they are not the same thing.
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01-21-2012, 08:34 PM #10Pro Bowl Poster
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
31.3% chance of a Ravens win? That is not very good.
The big question is how accurate Accuscore has been in predicting previous games.
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01-21-2012, 08:46 PM #11Veteran Poster
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
The last time I checked the Vegas moneyline it was actually a bit worse. Like 75/25 Pats to win. Obviously that line is subject to the whims of the betting public, but the spread is usally more sensitive to the bets of the uneducated masses than the moneyline.
There is no way around it, we are substantial underdogs this weekend. And it makes sense to some degree based on our inconsistency and our road record. It is like saying there is a 50/50 chance we lay a road egg in which case we have a 0% chance of winning, and a 50/50 chance we play well on the road (a la at Pittsburgh) in which case we have about a 50% chance of winning; net result a 25% chance.
I don't really think it is that surprising, I just hope we play well. If so, we have a decent chance of winning.
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Re: Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.
There is so much focus on last week's game; that's what gives the perception that the Ravens barely made it. You could make this argument but the gameplan was very vanilla and they really didn't even try to rush the QB. It'll be all out tomorrow.
World Domination 3 Points at a Time!
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