Accuscore's probablities of a Ravens win.

[kelsey59]

The following table shows various scenarios that improve the Ravens’ chances of beating the Pats and reaching the Super Bowl.

Scenario	Scenario Probability	Ravens Win
Defense allows <350 yards, forces >1 turnover	20.9%	47.8%
Defense allows <350 yards, forces >2 turnovers	12.8%	57.9%
Ray Rice rushes >75 yards	38.6%	49.1%
Ray Rice rushes >100 yards	21.7%	59.3%

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...ts_49ers012012

[Flipping Birdie]

You left out the overall Accuscore tabulations that show a Patriots victory 68.7% of the time out of 10,000 simulations. 31.3% chance of a victory for the Ravens isn't too bad of odds. Listening to the talking heads this week you'd think it was 97% in Patriots favor.

[kelsey59]

You left out the overall Accuscore tabulations that show a Patriots victory 68.7% of the time out of 10,000 simulations. 31.3% chance of a victory for the Ravens isn't too bad of odds. Listening to the talking heads this week you'd think it was 97% in Patriots favor.

I didn't want to be a downer and include that part.

[Ravenswintitle]

Last week accuscore picked saints, pats, ravens, packers so they went 2 for 4. I did better than that by picking niners. Just saying it's interesting but doesn't mean a lot.

[kelsey59]

Last week accuscore picked saints, pats, ravens, packers so they went 2 for 4. I did better than that by picking niners. Just saying it's interesting but doesn't mean a lot.

It pretty much says what everyone on here as been saying - "give Ray the ball." They just put a value on it.

[pickles]

You left out the overall Accuscore tabulations that show a Patriots victory 68.7% of the time out of 10,000 simulations. 31.3% chance of a victory for the Ravens isn't too bad of odds. Listening to the talking heads this week you'd think it was 97% in Patriots favor.

I gotta say, I'm pretty shocked the odds are so low for a Ravens victory. I would put it at least at 40% and probably closer to 45%. I mean, what do I know, but to think our odds are lower than 1 in 3 is hard to believe.

[pickles]

It pretty much says what everyone on here as been saying - "give Ray the ball." They just put a value on it.

Well, yeah, and create some turnovers.

[alien bird]

So the Ravens should force more than two turnovers, hold New England to less than 350 yards, and make sure Ray Rice rushes for over 100 yards. Okay.

[Flipping Birdie]

I gotta say, I'm pretty shocked the odds are so low for a Ravens victory. I would put it at least at 40% and probably closer to 45%. I mean, what do I know, but to think our odds are lower than 1 in 3 is hard to believe.

It's a computer programs. They ran 10,000 simulations, and the Patriots won 68.7% of the time. It isn't the same as an supposed expert, or a panel of supposed experts, setting a probability.

[Maverick Hiker]

31.3% chance of a Ravens win? That is not very good.

The big question is how accurate Accuscore has been in predicting previous games.

[Haloti92]

The last time I checked the Vegas moneyline it was actually a bit worse. Like 75/25 Pats to win. Obviously that line is subject to the whims of the betting public, but the spread is usally more sensitive to the bets of the uneducated masses than the moneyline.

There is no way around it, we are substantial underdogs this weekend. And it makes sense to some degree based on our inconsistency and our road record. It is like saying there is a 50/50 chance we lay a road egg in which case we have a 0% chance of winning, and a 50/50 chance we play well on the road (a la at Pittsburgh) in which case we have about a 50% chance of winning; net result a 25% chance.

I don't really think it is that surprising, I just hope we play well. If so, we have a decent chance of winning.

[Ravenswintitle]

There is so much focus on last week's game; that's what gives the perception that the Ravens barely made it. You could make this argument but the gameplan was very vanilla and they really didn't even try to rush the QB. It'll be all out tomorrow.