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01-21-2012, 06:33 PM #25Rookie Poster
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
^^Depends who you ask. We faced the jets twice, giants, several other good ds. I think no question your stats are inflated by not having really faced a good offense though....I mean far and away the best offense you faced was SD (having an off year, but somewher ein top 10), and they lit you up.
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01-21-2012, 07:40 PM #26Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Ravens play calling was terrible in the losses. Got away from the running game. I don't see that happening in this game unless they get down by two scores early. Ravens offense does not play Brady, it plays your D. Flacco should have a much better game against your D than against Houston's.
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01-21-2012, 07:43 PM #27Regular 1st Stringer
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01-21-2012, 08:13 PM #28Veteran Poster
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Good points but the entire game will turn on 3 things, IMO:
1. Flacco must play well. No way Flacco is throwing 10 passes like he did two years ago. That being the case, he must be sharp. If he has one of his indecisive, throw behind guys, take sacks games, we're cooked.
2. We must get to Brady. Stats or no stats, this guy will murder you if he gets comfortable. Pagano better have some exotic pressure packages up his sleeve.
3. If we have the lead at halftime or later, Cam CANNOT take his foot off the gas. He did that last year up there and we saw the result.
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01-21-2012, 08:21 PM #29Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite? Since the line hasn't moved since then, the vast majority of the OBJECTIVE betting public has mainly agreed. Or should I trust the ramblings and analysis of an anonymous poster on an Internet message board? To actually think that the Pats will lose based on data as far back as 5 YEARS AGO, when half of the Rosters were different borders on desperation. I'm a realist and believe that the Ravens will lose this game unless they win the Turnover battle in a BIG way. But I supposed you won't stop throwing out immaterial stats until you're blue in the face and convince yourself the Pats have no chance. In that case, call your friends and family and bet the house.
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01-21-2012, 11:54 PM #30Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Thanks for your gracious assistance, but I noticed that in your first post to my original content, that all you did was make excuses for why you think the Pats have been pathetic in the playoffs pretty much since '07 and against good teams this year.
Unfortunately, excuses do not provide invalidate proven facts.
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01-22-2012, 12:00 AM #31Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Doesn't sound like you know much about spreads. I used to have a part-time job making quite a bit of money taking advantage of them. I just got tired of working 30 hours on the weekends.
Either way, spreads have absolutely nothing to do with analysis. They have everything to do with how millions of people think, unfortunately most of them don't think with much of a basis.
Either way, I'll defer to how many people laughed at me when I suggested that the Giants would win the SB in '07. That spread was even greater, like 15 or something. I saw it differently.
Why do you think that spreads among the books in NE are going to be 2-4 points higher in the line than they are nationally? Likewise, local books in Baltimore would be giving fewer points.
Why, in your geniousness, do you think that might be? ... here's a clue, it has absolutely nothing to do with sound analysis.
And BTW, that may no longer be the case due to online books, but that's the way it used to be.
Every week in both college and pro ball during the regular seasons there are a handful of spreads that are ripe for the taking. I could make F/T money if I had the desire.
Spreads are purely a reaction to public opinion and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with "the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite."
The spreads change as people wager in order to get as close to a 50/50 balance as possible generally speaking.
Do you have any idea whatsoever on how books make their money? It has nothing to do with pure chance. If you understood that, you'd understand why what you said makes zero sense whatsover.
Biases factor into things even more than what you said.
I'm just curious how many unjustifiable flags Brady gets tomorrow.Last edited by Golden Era at The U; 01-22-2012 at 12:06 AM.
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01-22-2012, 12:01 AM #32Regular 1st Stringer
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01-22-2012, 01:40 AM #33Rookie Poster
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
Golden Era..seriously?
We aren't stupid here--we understand how spreads are made. That said, Favorites of 7 or more win a very good % of the time...and for a reason--the betting public has access to expert opinion, analysis, can watch both teams' games, etc. Most people will generally make informed decisions. Other factors involved? Absolutely. But when a team is favored by 7 or more they generally are the better team and/or are in a favorable situation.
Am I discounting the Giants win as a 10 point dog in 07? No. But that is clearly the exception, not the rule.
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01-22-2012, 09:29 AM #34Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
The line for the SB in 07 was 7 by the way, and it took a miraculous helmet catch by the Giants to pull it out.
I know how the lines are set and move during the course of the week, no thanks to you.
That being said, the bettors, the people who are putting their $$$ on the line, mostly believe the Pats will win by 7. Of course, nothing is set in stone and anything can happen, as the saying goes. Basically, they are making a decision with their money, their livelihood. My hunch is they're much more objective than the musings and ramblings of a anonymous poster in an internet message board who would love nothing better than Brady breaking his leg stepping off the team bus before the game.
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01-22-2012, 11:05 AM #35On The Practice Squad
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
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01-22-2012, 11:59 AM #36Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...
No, I don't think you do, b/c if you did, then the statements are vapid.
LMAO!! You're funny...
Unfortunately this merely reinforces that you have zero understanding of what I just tried to explain to you, hence much less how spreads are made.
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