Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

[Welka_fan]

^^Depends who you ask. We faced the jets twice, giants, several other good ds. I think no question your stats are inflated by not having really faced a good offense though....I mean far and away the best offense you faced was SD (having an off year, but somewher ein top 10), and they lit you up.

[Ghoulahoo]

On a side note, I hate the ravens. I can't wait for brady to send yo a$$s home so I can come here and talk crap lolll.

But eh, fine, disqualify everyone that we played this year because they aren't all in the playoffs. Doesn't leave much to evaluate as far as the pats' season goes..I mean we shut down all the elite running games we faced, don't know what else you can expect. Some of those teams were playing very well at the time...I mean denver sent pittsburgh home..the eagles wrecked giants before we played them....but thats a long useless argument. Just know you're next.

Take the purple goggles off for a sec though..this is an away game for Baltimore right? Just like pats, one of the best home teams in league....How've they done away this year?

Baltimore 13 @ TENN 26. Early in season, one loss, no big deal

Baltimore 37 @ STL 7...see? no problem..dominated worst team in league/or 2nd worst

Baltimore 7 @ Jac 12...OK so flacco had another off day...just a letdown game

Baltimore 23 @ PIT 20...respectable

BAL 17 @ SEA 22....huh? does this team just suck on the road?

Baltimore 24 @ CLE 10...

BAL 14 @ SD 34. Jesus, does the baltimore offense just suck in away games?

BAL 24 @ CIN 16

Baltimore offense isnt inconsistent in away games--it just sucks. One good game against injury riddled, terrible rams team...maybe some respect for steelers win. Every single game mattered...winning just 1 more would have given you homefield. Look @ the rest, against some mediocre teams. Best case you're lookin at a low 20-something points from that sample...likely not good enough . pats will roll

Ravens play calling was terrible in the losses. Got away from the running game. I don't see that happening in this game unless they get down by two scores early. Ravens offense does not play Brady, it plays your D. Flacco should have a much better game against your D than against Houston's.

[Ghoulahoo]

^^Depends who you ask. We faced the jets twice, giants, several other good ds. I think no question your stats are inflated by not having really faced a good offense though....I mean far and away the best offense you faced was SD (having an off year, but somewher ein top 10), and they lit you up.

As you've made the excuse for the Ravens winning against you 2 years ago when you were missing Welker, the Ravens were missing Webb, their best cornerback in the SD loss.

[veritas]

Good points but the entire game will turn on 3 things, IMO:

1. Flacco must play well. No way Flacco is throwing 10 passes like he did two years ago. That being the case, he must be sharp. If he has one of his indecisive, throw behind guys, take sacks games, we're cooked.

2. We must get to Brady. Stats or no stats, this guy will murder you if he gets comfortable. Pagano better have some exotic pressure packages up his sleeve.

3. If we have the lead at halftime or later, Cam CANNOT take his foot off the gas. He did that last year up there and we saw the result.

[RavensRule2]

I wrote about 'em here, and there's been some implicit mention here of them, but I've not seen a lot of discussion of them much less any sound analysis on them, although perhaps I missed it here.

http://www.ravens24x7.com./columns/P...THE-MEDIA-HYPE

I'll include more detail than I put in the piece, but the fact is that Brady has really been below average in the playoffs since '07 when the Giants beat them in the SB. And FWIW, I was actually on record predicting a very close low scoring game with the Giants having as good a shot at winning as the Pats did due to the matchup. I don't say that to pat myself on the back, I say it because if you ask me, the onus is on the Pats to beat the Ravens, not visa versa as the media is making it out to be.

Since the divisional game in '07, and discounting last week's game v. D-II Denver, here are Brady's stats:

2007 AFCCG v. SD: 22 for 33, 66.7%, 209 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 66.4 Rating

2007 SB v. Giants: 29 for 48, 60.4%, 266 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 82.5 Rating

2009 WC Game v. Ravens: 23 for 42, 54.8%, 154 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 49.1 Rating

2010 D-Round v. Jets: 29 for 45, 64.4%, 299 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 89.0 Rating

Average game: 232 Yards, 61.3%, 1.75 TDs, 1.5 INTs, 71.8 Rating

This is not even remotely impressive! For Brady and Mr. "Run up the score against the weak and feeble during the Regular Season" Belicheat, this is horrid!


Meanwhile, Let's look at the Pats scoring in those same games and we'll include the D-Round Jax game from '07 too:

'07 D-Round v. Jags: 31 points
'07 AFCCG v. SD: 21 points
'07 SB v. Giants: 14 points
'09 WC Game v. Ravens: 14 points
'10 D-round Game v. Jets: 21 points

Of those 20.2 points-per-game, below average by NFL standards, only 10 were in the 1st Quarters of those games, 27 were in the 4th Quarters of those games, meaning that 74 points in those five games were in the first 3 Quarters of play, or fewer than 15 points through 3 Quarters.

What kind of nimrod thinks this stuff is impressive.

This season vs. the only two teams that were even close to as good as the Ravens the Pats put up a paltry 17 and 20 points against this season, both times in losses, and with 24 of those 37 points coming in the 4th Quarter as well.

Then there's the litany of average to fair RBs and RB tandems/trios that hung 100-yards rushing on the Pats all season long. Why on earth would anyone think that Rice/Williams won't get 100-yards easily.

And if the Pats don't go up early, who's to say that the Ravens can't run up the score first.

I just don't get it. If I were the Pats and their fans, I'd be wearing brown pants up until game time!

As I said in the piece, I see no reason why the Pats shouldn't score 27 or more and I don't see why the Pats should score that many, based upon trends/patterns established that are relevant to this game.

Consider too that the Pats' rushing game and D aren't even as good as they were in '07, '09, and '10.

The onus is on the Pats to even win this game much less cover a 7 or 7 1/2 point spread.

Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite? Since the line hasn't moved since then, the vast majority of the OBJECTIVE betting public has mainly agreed. Or should I trust the ramblings and analysis of an anonymous poster on an Internet message board? To actually think that the Pats will lose based on data as far back as 5 YEARS AGO, when half of the Rosters were different borders on desperation. I'm a realist and believe that the Ravens will lose this game unless they win the Turnover battle in a BIG way. But I supposed you won't stop throwing out immaterial stats until you're blue in the face and convince yourself the Pats have no chance. In that case, call your friends and family and bet the house.

[Golden Era at The U]

Let me help you out with the Ray Rice analysis then. I mean I know his stats werent stellar because of injury..but Oakland's McFadden is pretty elite, no? 14 carries, 75 yards? That's a good YPC..but why in the world would oakland abandon an effective run game?

Lesean Mccoy..towards the top of the league in all statistical categories...eagles were at home...actually up 10-0 early...how do you explain 10 carries for 31 yards?

I remember Denver being ranked #1 (maybe just because of tebow's bs) rushing...they wre up several possessions early in our first game...but abandoned the run even though it was doing good damage. Is this a trend?

Neither qb commanded respect. When you present only one real challenge on offense, Belichick can deal...well documented. Throw in Pats O doing their thing and you get stats like that. Isnt that objective?

Thanks for your gracious assistance, but I noticed that in your first post to my original content, that all you did was make excuses for why you think the Pats have been pathetic in the playoffs pretty much since '07 and against good teams this year.

Unfortunately, excuses do not provide invalidate proven facts.

[Golden Era at The U]

Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite?

Doesn't sound like you know much about spreads. I used to have a part-time job making quite a bit of money taking advantage of them. I just got tired of working 30 hours on the weekends.

Either way, spreads have absolutely nothing to do with analysis. They have everything to do with how millions of people think, unfortunately most of them don't think with much of a basis.

Either way, I'll defer to how many people laughed at me when I suggested that the Giants would win the SB in '07. That spread was even greater, like 15 or something. I saw it differently.

Why do you think that spreads among the books in NE are going to be 2-4 points higher in the line than they are nationally? Likewise, local books in Baltimore would be giving fewer points.

Why, in your geniousness, do you think that might be? ... here's a clue, it has absolutely nothing to do with sound analysis.

And BTW, that may no longer be the case due to online books, but that's the way it used to be.

Every week in both college and pro ball during the regular seasons there are a handful of spreads that are ripe for the taking. I could make F/T money if I had the desire.

Spreads are purely a reaction to public opinion and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with "the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite."

The spreads change as people wager in order to get as close to a 50/50 balance as possible generally speaking.

Do you have any idea whatsoever on how books make their money? It has nothing to do with pure chance. If you understood that, you'd understand why what you said makes zero sense whatsover.

Biases factor into things even more than what you said.

I'm just curious how many unjustifiable flags Brady gets tomorrow.

[Golden Era at The U]

Good points but the entire game will turn on 3 things, IMO:

1. Flacco must play well. No way Flacco is throwing 10 passes like he did two years ago. That being the case, he must be sharp. If he has one of his indecisive, throw behind guys, take sacks games, we're cooked.

2. We must get to Brady. Stats or no stats, this guy will murder you if he gets comfortable. Pagano better have some exotic pressure packages up his sleeve.

3. If we have the lead at halftime or later, Cam CANNOT take his foot off the gas. He did that last year up there and we saw the result.

If the Pats can't stop Rice, ... game over.

[Welka_fan]

Golden Era..seriously?

We aren't stupid here--we understand how spreads are made. That said, Favorites of 7 or more win a very good % of the time...and for a reason--the betting public has access to expert opinion, analysis, can watch both teams' games, etc. Most people will generally make informed decisions. Other factors involved? Absolutely. But when a team is favored by 7 or more they generally are the better team and/or are in a favorable situation.

Am I discounting the Giants win as a 10 point dog in 07? No. But that is clearly the exception, not the rule.

[RavensRule2]

Doesn't sound like you know much about spreads. I used to have a part-time job making quite a bit of money taking advantage of them. I just got tired of working 30 hours on the weekends.

Either way, spreads have absolutely nothing to do with analysis. They have everything to do with how millions of people think, unfortunately most of them don't think with much of a basis.

Either way, I'll defer to how many people laughed at me when I suggested that the Giants would win the SB in '07. That spread was even greater, like 15 or something. I saw it differently.

Why do you think that spreads among the books in NE are going to be 2-4 points higher in the line than they are nationally? Likewise, local books in Baltimore would be giving fewer points.

Why, in your geniousness, do you think that might be? ... here's a clue, it has absolutely nothing to do with sound analysis.

And BTW, that may no longer be the case due to online books, but that's the way it used to be.

Every week in both college and pro ball during the regular seasons there are a handful of spreads that are ripe for the taking. I could make F/T money if I had the desire.

Spreads are purely a reaction to public opinion and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with "the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite."

The spreads change as people wager in order to get as close to a 50/50 balance as possible generally speaking.

Do you have any idea whatsoever on how books make their money? It has nothing to do with pure chance. If you understood that, you'd understand why what you said makes zero sense whatsover.

Biases factor into things even more than what you said.

I'm just curious how many unjustifiable flags Brady gets tomorrow.

The line for the SB in 07 was 7 by the way, and it took a miraculous helmet catch by the Giants to pull it out.

I know how the lines are set and move during the course of the week, no thanks to you.

That being said, the bettors, the people who are putting their $$$ on the line, mostly believe the Pats will win by 7. Of course, nothing is set in stone and anything can happen, as the saying goes. Basically, they are making a decision with their money, their livelihood. My hunch is they're much more objective than the musings and ramblings of a anonymous poster in an internet message board who would love nothing better than Brady breaking his leg stepping off the team bus before the game.

[Grady41]

Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite? Since the line hasn't moved since then, the vast majority of the OBJECTIVE betting public has mainly agreed. Or should I trust the ramblings and analysis of an anonymous poster on an Internet message board? To actually think that the Pats will lose based on data as far back as 5 YEARS AGO, when half of the Rosters were different borders on desperation. I'm a realist and believe that the Ravens will lose this game unless they win the Turnover battle in a BIG way. But I supposed you won't stop throwing out immaterial stats until you're blue in the face and convince yourself the Pats have no chance. In that case, call your friends and family and bet the house.

Because Brady blows the media and is a prince valient.
All these stats posted mean nothing, all what the media says mean nothing. Play the game, hopefully the refs dont dangle from Brady and his crying . If these things happen , the team that wins deserves to win

[Golden Era at The U]

Golden Era..seriously?

We aren't stupid here--we understand how spreads are made.

No, I don't think you do, b/c if you did, then the statements are vapid.

Am I discounting the Giants win as a 10 point dog in 07? No. But that is clearly the exception, not the rule.

LMAO!! You're funny...

Unfortunately this merely reinforces that you have zero understanding of what I just tried to explain to you, hence much less how spreads are made.