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  1. #31

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...



    Quote Originally Posted by RavensRule2 View Post
    Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite?
    Doesn't sound like you know much about spreads. I used to have a part-time job making quite a bit of money taking advantage of them. I just got tired of working 30 hours on the weekends.

    Either way, spreads have absolutely nothing to do with analysis. They have everything to do with how millions of people think, unfortunately most of them don't think with much of a basis.

    Either way, I'll defer to how many people laughed at me when I suggested that the Giants would win the SB in '07. That spread was even greater, like 15 or something. I saw it differently.

    Why do you think that spreads among the books in NE are going to be 2-4 points higher in the line than they are nationally? Likewise, local books in Baltimore would be giving fewer points.

    Why, in your geniousness, do you think that might be? ... here's a clue, it has absolutely nothing to do with sound analysis.

    And BTW, that may no longer be the case due to online books, but that's the way it used to be.

    Every week in both college and pro ball during the regular seasons there are a handful of spreads that are ripe for the taking. I could make F/T money if I had the desire.

    Spreads are purely a reaction to public opinion and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with "the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite."

    The spreads change as people wager in order to get as close to a 50/50 balance as possible generally speaking.

    Do you have any idea whatsoever on how books make their money? It has nothing to do with pure chance. If you understood that, you'd understand why what you said makes zero sense whatsover.

    Biases factor into things even more than what you said.

    I'm just curious how many unjustifiable flags Brady gets tomorrow.
    Last edited by Golden Era at The U; 01-22-2012 at 12:06 AM.




  2. #32

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by veritas View Post
    Good points but the entire game will turn on 3 things, IMO:

    1. Flacco must play well. No way Flacco is throwing 10 passes like he did two years ago. That being the case, he must be sharp. If he has one of his indecisive, throw behind guys, take sacks games, we're cooked.

    2. We must get to Brady. Stats or no stats, this guy will murder you if he gets comfortable. Pagano better have some exotic pressure packages up his sleeve.

    3. If we have the lead at halftime or later, Cam CANNOT take his foot off the gas. He did that last year up there and we saw the result.
    If the Pats can't stop Rice, ... game over.




  3. #33

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Golden Era..seriously?

    We aren't stupid here--we understand how spreads are made. That said, Favorites of 7 or more win a very good % of the time...and for a reason--the betting public has access to expert opinion, analysis, can watch both teams' games, etc. Most people will generally make informed decisions. Other factors involved? Absolutely. But when a team is favored by 7 or more they generally are the better team and/or are in a favorable situation.

    Am I discounting the Giants win as a 10 point dog in 07? No. But that is clearly the exception, not the rule.




  4. #34

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Era at The U View Post
    Doesn't sound like you know much about spreads. I used to have a part-time job making quite a bit of money taking advantage of them. I just got tired of working 30 hours on the weekends.

    Either way, spreads have absolutely nothing to do with analysis. They have everything to do with how millions of people think, unfortunately most of them don't think with much of a basis.

    Either way, I'll defer to how many people laughed at me when I suggested that the Giants would win the SB in '07. That spread was even greater, like 15 or something. I saw it differently.

    Why do you think that spreads among the books in NE are going to be 2-4 points higher in the line than they are nationally? Likewise, local books in Baltimore would be giving fewer points.

    Why, in your geniousness, do you think that might be? ... here's a clue, it has absolutely nothing to do with sound analysis.

    And BTW, that may no longer be the case due to online books, but that's the way it used to be.

    Every week in both college and pro ball during the regular seasons there are a handful of spreads that are ripe for the taking. I could make F/T money if I had the desire.

    Spreads are purely a reaction to public opinion and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with "the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite."

    The spreads change as people wager in order to get as close to a 50/50 balance as possible generally speaking.

    Do you have any idea whatsoever on how books make their money? It has nothing to do with pure chance. If you understood that, you'd understand why what you said makes zero sense whatsover.

    Biases factor into things even more than what you said.

    I'm just curious how many unjustifiable flags Brady gets tomorrow.
    The line for the SB in 07 was 7 by the way, and it took a miraculous helmet catch by the Giants to pull it out.

    I know how the lines are set and move during the course of the week, no thanks to you.

    That being said, the bettors, the people who are putting their $$$ on the line, mostly believe the Pats will win by 7. Of course, nothing is set in stone and anything can happen, as the saying goes. Basically, they are making a decision with their money, their livelihood. My hunch is they're much more objective than the musings and ramblings of a anonymous poster in an internet message board who would love nothing better than Brady breaking his leg stepping off the team bus before the game.




  5. #35

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensRule2 View Post
    Very thorough research but I'm curious....Since a Joe Average like yourself can come up with these numbers, how come the guys who make football their business and livelihood, guys who analyze the sport in every conceivable manner, guys who live and breath football, pegged the Pats as a 7 pt favorite? Since the line hasn't moved since then, the vast majority of the OBJECTIVE betting public has mainly agreed. Or should I trust the ramblings and analysis of an anonymous poster on an Internet message board? To actually think that the Pats will lose based on data as far back as 5 YEARS AGO, when half of the Rosters were different borders on desperation. I'm a realist and believe that the Ravens will lose this game unless they win the Turnover battle in a BIG way. But I supposed you won't stop throwing out immaterial stats until you're blue in the face and convince yourself the Pats have no chance. In that case, call your friends and family and bet the house.
    Because Brady blows the media and is a prince valient.
    All these stats posted mean nothing, all what the media says mean nothing. Play the game, hopefully the refs dont dangle from Brady and his crying . If these things happen , the team that wins deserves to win




  6. #36

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Welka_fan View Post
    Golden Era..seriously?

    We aren't stupid here--we understand how spreads are made.
    No, I don't think you do, b/c if you did, then the statements are vapid.


    Quote Originally Posted by Welka_fan View Post
    Am I discounting the Giants win as a 10 point dog in 07? No. But that is clearly the exception, not the rule.
    LMAO!! You're funny...

    Unfortunately this merely reinforces that you have zero understanding of what I just tried to explain to you, hence much less how spreads are made.




  7. #37

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensRule2 View Post
    I know how the lines are set and move during the course of the week, no thanks to you.

    That being said, the bettors, the people who are putting their $$$ on the line, mostly believe the Pats will win by 7.
    Congratulations! ... You just contradicted yourself!

    ; )




  8. #38

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Grady41 View Post
    Because Brady blows the media and is a prince valient.
    All these stats posted mean nothing, all what the media says mean nothing. Play the game, hopefully the refs dont dangle from Brady and his crying . If these things happen , the team that wins deserves to win
    You got that right, media pretty-boy Brady and Belicheat who's overhyped, for some reason the media have more than manlove for.

    I agree, let's hope that we don't get three or four personal foul calls for having Suggs look at Brady's jersey number and stuff like that.

    Otherwise, there's all this nonsense about "that look in Brady's eyes when the fact of the matter is that in the playoffs his numbers are much, much lower on average than they are in the regular season, and therefore so are the team's.

    Regular Season over the last four years ('07-'10) and after Belicheat got busted for cheating (Brady didn't play '08 either):

    Brady: 2.4 TDs/game, .5 INTs/game, 108.1 Rating, 8.0 YPA
    Pats: 32.0 PPG for, 18.2 PPG against

    Playoffs Career:

    Brady: 1.8 TDs/game, .8 INTs/game, 89.1 rating, 6.7 ypa;
    Pats: 25 ppg for, ... including defensive/special-teams scores, 19 ppg against

    Playoffs over the last four seasons ('07-10) minus '08:

    Brady: 2 TDs/game, 1.4 INTs/game
    Pats: 20.2 PPG for, 22 PPG against

    On another note, this Pats' defense has allowed more points in the regular season since their '02 team which was 9-7.

    Also, the most that they've ever scored in a playoff game, ever, under Brady or anyone, was last week vs. the Broncos.

    Talk about good timing for the Ravens ...




  9. #39
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    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    The more I think about it, the more I think this game comes down to turnovers. While the Patriots defense has been average at best, what has allowed them to go on the 9 game winning streak has been turnovers. They have a huge + differential - especially INTs.

    The Ravens will need to create several on defense to slow down the Patriots offense, and in turn, the Ravens offense needs to limit them when they have the ball and maximize every possession.

    If they do that, they win.




  10. #40

    Re: Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterB58 View Post
    The more I think about it, the more I think this game comes down to turnovers. While the Patriots defense has been average at best, what has allowed them to go on the 9 game winning streak has been turnovers. They have a huge + differential - especially INTs.

    The Ravens will need to create several on defense to slow down the Patriots offense, and in turn, the Ravens offense needs to limit them when they have the ball and maximize every possession.

    If they do that, they win.
    That's likely.

    But in analyzing this it's critical to parse the data in terms of those TOs for the Pats. I'm not even remotely daunted after we do.

    For starters, they have 23 INTs and 11 FRs. I don't know how many of those FRs were on passing plays and how many were on running plays, but two things, it doesn't really matter since from a FR perspective they're in good company since 14 other teams have +/- 1 FRs, i.e., 10-12, and many of those teams sucked. Three teams, including the Vikes who sucked, have more. 15, 15, and 13.

    The Ravens have 11 too.

    So the delta there is their 23 INTs. No other team in the AFC has 20, only four teams in the NFC have more: GB 31, SF 23, Seattle 22, and Detroit 21.

    All of a sudden their success in generating INTs isn't so daunting. But wait, there's more ...

    6 were against the Fitzpatrick and the Bills, the league's leading INT team, 3 Palko, 2 Sanchez, 2 Moore, 2 Campbell, 2 Rivers, 1 Grossman, 1 Orolvsky, 1 Young, 1 the Rapist, 1 Eli, 1 Romo

    Are you impressed? ... I'm not.

    Four of those teams were among the NFL's top-5 INT throwing teams.

    Four of those QBs were among the NFL's top-5 INT throwing QBs.

    Flacco has thrown as many INTs as Brady has, 12.

    The Ravens and Pats are tied for 26th in INTs thrown, meaning fewest, not most.

    Of the bottom half of the league, best 16 teams, ranked for fewest INTs, the Pats have only logged 4 INTs. Moore 2, Orlovsky 1, and Romo 1.

    Hence, I'm not even slightly concerned. Rice has 2 FUMs all year.

    The more I turn rocks over here the less concerned I'm growing and the more I think that I'm going to be thoroughly enjoying wings at halftime!

    ; )




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