When Good Stats Go Bad

[ActualSpamBot]

Found this article on NFL.com and thought some of the posters on this board would benefit from reading it. It's a short primer on why statistics are not only frequently misleading, but sometimes they are straight up the inverse of what people think they mean. The article is from Week 10 so it's not fully up to date but the picture it paints, especially with regard to the holy standard for QB play among some of Flacco's biggest critics (Quarterback rating and yardage) is enlightening.

Perhaps the most easily misleading stat is big-yardage passing games for quarterbacks. Just as a swinging bunt looks like a line drive in the box score, a massive passing game looks awesome on your stat sheet -- until you realize it's more likely to indicate a bunch of worthless garbage-time yards.

Last season, quarterbacks who threw for 300 or more yards in a game had a combined record of 47-49. Quarterbacks who threw for 400 or more yards were 3-11. This season, we've already seen 10 400-plus yard passing games -- although, interestingly, none since Oct. 9. (Can anyone say "lockout defense"?) The combined record of those quarterbacks was 3-7, with Tom Brady accounting for two of the wins and Aaron Rodgers for the third.

To quote the embedded video, I don't want a STAT QB. I want a WINNING QB.

[Ravenswintitle]

fantasy football has skewed the view of the NFL in a lot of ways. I'll take an ugly win and like it

[Paintballguy]

big fantasy numbers =/= wins in the NFL

[Dade]

Very good ASB. Fantasy football and Madden (among other things) has ruined a generation of fan's perception of what a "good" QB stat line should like. To me biggest stats for a QB are completion percentage, 3rd down percentage and TD to INT ratio. IMO Joe has been very good in at least 2 of those 3 categories.

[ActualSpamBot]

Last season, quarterbacks who threw for 300 or more yards in a game had a combined record of 47-49

I'm personally boggled by this stat. I always knew that huge passing games are fairly overrated, but I had no idea just how little correlation their is between 300 yard games and winning and losing.

I think if more people understood just how little a QBs yardage mattered when determining how likely it is that his team won, we'd have a lot less complaining about Flacco's sub 200 yard (but TWO TD ZERO INT) game last week.

[Haloti92]

There really isn't anything misleading about it. Teams that are very behind throw; they also throw a lot of times against prevent defenses. This is much like the stat about winning and rushing 25+ times.

[Haloti92]

I'm personally boggled by this stat. I always knew that huge passing games are fairly overrated, but I had no idea just how little correlation their is between 300 yard games and winning and losing.

I think if more people understood just how little a QBs yardage mattered when determining how likely it is that his team won, we'd have a lot less complaining about Flacco's sub 200 yard (but TWO TD ZERO INT) game last week.

I am not boggled by it at all. Try to find out the record of 300+ yard passers in the 1980s, I bet it is closer to the Mendoza line than .500. If anything the record is surprisingly good, imo.

[BleedPurple92]

I'm personally boggled by this stat. I always knew that huge passing games are fairly overrated, but I had no idea just how little correlation their is between 300 yard games and winning and losing.

I think if more people understood just how little a QBs yardage mattered when determining how likely it is that his team won, we'd have a lot less complaining about Flacco's sub 200 yard (but TWO TD ZERO INT) game last week.

Its simple... I almost cant see a great QB in today's NFL with a Great Defense. You're gonna be on the field a lot. People are gonna throw on you.

That's an interesting Stat, but its pretty easy to see why that stat exist. I mean the 3 highest passers this year had the 3 worst defenses. I would definitely take a running team with a Quarterback that makes plays when asked than a team that passes the ball 40 times a game. Defense i think will always defeat Offense. Its just psychology, if you get hit hard enough times you get timid. You can change the rules, but you cant change Mentality.

[LukeDaniel]

I'm on the fence about this whole thing. I always stated my disdain for the amount press and HOF recognition Aikman and Bradshaw got. I constantly said that they did not have HOF production nor HOF talent, but rather had HOF sized luck. I still feel that way, but I guess the picture gets a bit more muddled since you could say the same things about Flacco.

If Flacco wins 2 Super Bowls in the next 8 years, is he going to be a HOFer too? Goodness knows he's been far better in his first four seasons than either of the two "Game manager" Canton QBs have been. I have a sense that no matter what Flacco does, his disposition will always leave him receiving less credit than he truly deserves.

[LukeDaniel]

Speaking of totally frivolous stats:

Here's one:

Int-to-win ratio of all NFL QBs over their first four seasons.

Best ratio of all time......Joe Flacco 46INT-44 Wins (1.045)

2nd best ratio of all-time.....Matt Ryan 46 INT-43 wins (1.069)

Others:

Tom Brady 38-34 (1.12)
McNabb 38-31 (1.22)
McNair 28-20 (1.40)
Marino 67-41 (1.63)
Elway 65-38 (1.71)
Montana 32-18 (1.77)
Brees 38-21 (1.81)
Aikman 60-27 (2.22)
Manning 81-32 (2.53)
Simms 42-14 (3.0)

Puts things in perspective a bit doesn't it?

[Tattoo]

I don't want a STAT QB. I want a WINNING QB.

Good thing for us up here, we have a QB that is both.

[ActualSpamBot]

Not this weekend you won't.