Advanced NFL Stats crushes the Sun, calls out Preston

**52decleetzu** · 01-17-2012, 07:57 PM

I feel like the writer and I were separated at birth.

Just stumbled upon this making my rounds...

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...ysis.html#more

Ray Rice did much worse. He was stuffed on several critical goal line plays. And on a 2nd and 1 to seal the win, he was stopped short of the marker. Rice finished with -0.15 WPA and -6.3 EPA. These lunatics at the Baltimore Sun who week-in and week-out clamor for more carries by Rice, who cite fallacious 'when Rice gets 25 carries the Ravens win' stats, need to get a clue. (I'm looking at you Mike Preston.) A long time ago I came to the conclusion that most sports desks at our major city papers don't have the first idea about the sport on which they claim to be so authoritative, but the Baltimore Sun is in a league of its own. Those guys seem like nice folks, but...they have a duty to educate themselves. It's their job. As it is, they're no better than the average fan with his harebrained opinions.

Hallelujah!! It is about time someone said it!!

**wickedsolo** · 01-17-2012, 08:09 PM

No way Preston knows what that website is...let all.e ever read it.

He played at Towson man. Duh...

**cbaywolf** · 01-17-2012, 08:28 PM

I said the same thing in a post a few weeks ago- the stat that the Ravens win when Rice carries the ball over 20 times is pure stupidity. Rice gets 20+ carries *because* we are winning, and running the clock out the majority of times . Granted he may have a lot to do with why we're ahead in a lot of those games as well- but there were a few games when he was running into brick walls this year, and while you don't abandon the run totally- you can't keep running 60% of the time when you're not gaining yards against a stout front. Screen passess and good short pass combinations can do the exact same thing- but we usually don't do that very often for some reason.

**Dave Lap** · 01-18-2012, 10:36 AM

Originally Posted by cbaywolf

I said the same thing in a post a few weeks ago- the stat that the Ravens win when Rice carries the ball over 20 times is pure stupidity. Rice gets 20+ carries *because* we are winning, and running the clock out the majority of times . Granted he may have a lot to do with why we're ahead in a lot of those games as well- but there were a few games when he was running into brick walls this year, and while you don't abandon the run totally- you can't keep running 60% of the time when you're not gaining yards against a stout front. Screen passess and good short pass combinations can do the exact same thing- but we usually don't do that very often for some reason.

Exactly, many fans and certain writers, cough cough, cite those Rice run stats/Ravens winning percentage like they were scripture, totally ignoring the fact that we run more when we already have a lead in order to eat clock.

They believe that all we have to do is run Ray Rice, regardless of how successful he is, in order to win.

**bt12483** · 01-18-2012, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by cbaywolf

I said the same thing in a post a few weeks ago- the stat that the Ravens win when Rice carries the ball over 20 times is pure stupidity. Rice gets 20+ carries *because* we are winning, and running the clock out the majority of times . Granted he may have a lot to do with why we're ahead in a lot of those games as well- but there were a few games when he was running into brick walls this year, and while you don't abandon the run totally- you can't keep running 60% of the time when you're not gaining yards against a stout front. Screen passess and good short pass combinations can do the exact same thing- but we usually don't do that very often for some reason.

Yeah it's no doubt a chicken or the egg thing. And it isn't just with regards to the Ravens.

I saw a similar stat for HOU that said when Foster gets 30 carries they are like undefeated or something.

The reason they are getting those carries is usually because the team is playing with a lead. For example, up two scores via turnovers. Of course the RB will then get lots of carries - you just got spotted 2 scores via turnovers.

It is a very skewed metric to say the least. To say "get RB so and so 20 carries and you win" isn't true. Without those turnovers Rice's 21/61 rushing day loses the game for us.

**SteelFaninBMore** · 01-18-2012, 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by bt12483

Yeah it's no doubt a chicken or the egg thing. And it isn't just with regards to the Ravens.

I saw a similar stat for HOU that said when Foster gets 30 carries they are like undefeated or something.

The reason they are getting those carries is usually because the team is playing with a lead. For example, up two scores via turnovers. Of course the RB will then get lots of carries - you just got spotted 2 scores via turnovers.

It is a very skewed metric to say the least. To say "get RB so and so 20 carries and you win" isn't true. Without those turnovers Rice's 21/61 rushing day loses the game for us.

Don't forget the inverse of this as well - when "insert QB" throws 30+ times, the team is *insert shitty record*.

Fails to acknowledge that the reason the QB is throwing so much is probably that the team is behind, and thus of course much more likely to lose. So a defense giving up 30 points, leads to a QB throwing it 40 times, team loses (no real fault of the QB), and this is then skewed to say that the team can't win if they allow the QB to throw a lot.

**34wassmooth** · 01-18-2012, 02:52 PM

Interesting that Brady and his O-line ranked #1 in the AFC. Perhaps more interesting is that Flacco and the Baltimore O-line were ranked #2 in the AFC.

**Jay D83** · 01-18-2012, 03:34 PM

Originally Posted by 34wassmooth

Interesting that Brady and his O-line ranked #1 in the AFC. Perhaps more interesting is that Flacco and the Baltimore O-line were ranked #2 in the AFC.

Where is this stat? There is no way in hell our OL is #2 in the AFC. So (in my mind) that means the Patriots are probably not #1.

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 01-17-2012, 08:37 PM

That's a pretty funny call out....lmao

**ballhawk** · 01-17-2012, 08:38 PM

If the premise of that article is to say that ray rice is overrated, I would have to fervently disagree. If they are just taking the opportunity to bash Preston, im cool with that.

**52decleetzu** · 01-17-2012, 08:44 PM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

If the premise of that article is to say that ray rice is overrated, I would have to fervently disagree. If they are just taking the opportunity to bash Preston, im cool with that.

The premise of the article was a review of the game using their type of statistical analysis. It wasn't about Ray Rice or any other individual, they were just mentioned in the review of the game.

Mentioned in a way that is hilarious in regards to our local hacks.

I have to wonder if the writer has some Baltimore ties, that was pretty direct and specific, and I doubt anyone who didn't have a connection would have the knowledge to make a statement like that. Actually now that I think about it they have a partnership with the Washington Post, so maybe that is the connection to the area.

**alien bird** · 01-18-2012, 09:24 AM

Originally Posted by 52decleetzu

I have to wonder if the writer has some Baltimore ties, that was pretty direct and specific, and I doubt anyone who didn't have a connection would have the knowledge to make a statement like that. Actually now that I think about it they have a partnership with the Washington Post, so maybe that is the connection to the area.

Wonder no more. Brian Burke, the founder of that site, lives in Reston, Virginia, but grew up in Baltimore, went to Towson High School, then attended the Naval Academy. It's all there on the website.