Patriots D

[GOTA]

McCourty was moved to safety the last month of the season. They've been going with Moore & Arrington at corner, with Chung & McC at safety. It's been working better so far.

If Flacco is accurate this Sunday, he'll complete a few deep balls. If they lead to TDs, they have a good chance to win.

That's exactly why you want a big Tight End like Dickson up the middle. Chung can't cover since his injury, but he sure can hit. McCourty does not match up with someone the size of Dickson.

Arrington has been pretty good at CB this year. I have a feeling the Pats will match him in man to man against Torrey Smith all game. The Texans did well doing the same thing with Jonathan Joseph.

[tailgater]

No problem with that definition (team vs talent). I think Pitt has the skill position talent, but their OL has been decimated the last couple years. I'd say they are better at qb, #1 & #2 wr, te, while Bal is better at rb & definitley OL.

I will grant you that coaching is a factor...and the Ravens have a serious coaching problem on the offensive side of the ball.

I might grant you the Giants have the better offense. No way are the Steelers a better offensive team.

Keep in mind, the Ravens played something like 75% of their games this year against defenses in the top 10.

I guess that is why they play the game on the field.

[tailgater]

Chung has only been healthy the last game or two. He can cover better than you think, but, yes, TE's down the middle have killed the Pats all year, moreso due to LB play than anything else. Now that Spikes is back in the middle, it frees up Mayo to cover the middle. Hopefully that reduces the # of 20yd rec by the TEs up the middle.

For most of the season, excluding the Giants game, they've been able to give up chunks of yards down the middle between the 20's and still keep scoring down.

Pats will mix it up all day on D, with a mix of zone & man.

That's exactly why you want a big Tight End like Dickson up the middle. Chung can't cover since his injury, but he sure can hit. McCourty does not match up with someone the size of Dickson.

Arrington has been pretty good at CB this year. I have a feeling the Pats will match him in man to man against Torrey Smith all game. The Texans did well doing the same thing with Jonathan Joseph.

[PeterB58]

No problem with that definition (team vs talent). I think Pitt has the skill position talent, but their OL has been decimated the last couple years. I'd say they are better at qb, #1 & #2 wr, te, while Bal is better at rb & definitley OL.

Heath Miller better than Dixon/Pitta?

Uhhh....no.

[wickedsolo]

Heath Miller better than Dixon/Pitta?

Uhhh....no.

Heath Miller doesn't drop wide open passes.

[PeterB58]

Heath Miller doesn't drop wide open passes.

Neither does Pitta.

[Boulderraven]

The pats zone coverage in the secondary. Reason, they are so slow and inexperienced at LB and DB. Playing zone without being to generate a pass rush is a bad combination. Plus, Pats haven't played many good offenses. Patriots might have the slowest Dline in football, Rice should have an easy time on stretch runs or cutbacks. Ravens should be able to do what they want on offense on the ground or air.

[PeterB58]

Ravens should be able to do what they want on offense on the ground or air.

As long as they execute...and Cameron can make an adjustment or two. Big ifs...

[wickedsolo]

Neither does Pitta.

Yea, but Pitta sees maybe a handful of snaps per game. Miller is out there on almost every snap. Miller is also a hell of a blocker.

[PeterB58]

Yea, but Pitta sees maybe a handful of snaps per game. Miller is out there on almost every snap. Miller is also a hell of a blocker.

I was comparing talent on the field, not how they may be (mis)managed by the coaching staff. I think Pitta could have had a much better game last week versus the Texans if the scheme was better.

I still don't see Miller as that much better than Dixon/Pitta. Yes, Dixon drops the ball, but he also has made some tough catches in traffic, and can stretch the field (Miller cannot). EDIT: Oh, and by the way, I didn't see Dixon's name on this list, but I did see Miller's: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/l...rank=232&year=

My original point: I think the Ravens offense and the Steelers offense is comparable.

[DvlsAdvc8]

Ravens have been on of the best in the NFL at shutting down Tight Ends if fantasy stats mean anything. The Pats won the last game in OT by 3 if I recall, and this is a better Ravens team in all phases. The Pats O looks good, but their defense has been streaky.

I expect the Pats D to be better than advertised, but I don't think the Pats O is gonna light up the Ravens either. The Pats were beat by a Steelers team the Ravens beat twice. Assuming the Pats D sells out to stop Ray Rice as expected, does the Pats secondary really have it in them to contain Boldin, Smith, Pitta and Dickson? Ravens receivers against Pats CBs is the best matchup for the Ravens imo. The Pats allowed 4.6 yds/carry on the ground, 8th worst in the league... and with a 25 attempts/game average so its not like teams were giving up on the run to keep up - they're going to make Rice their focus. Smith and Boldin are going to see quite a bit of one on one if the Pats fail to jump out to a big lead... and the Pats pass rush was only average before Carter went out.

Let's not forget the Ravens have been playing top-tier teams all season and won the best division in the NFL. Flacco has been facing good defensive teams. The Pats meanwhile have been running over lesser competition all season. The talk has been about how they earned the #1 seed without beating a team that finished above .500 all season. I honestly think the game will come down to turnovers, and I give the Pats the edge only because the game is in Foxborough... but the team with the best chance to go into Foxborough and win would be the Ravens imo.

[HartLee]

Mark Anderson is a decent pass rusher. He was with the Bears a few seasons ago. They also have Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich (sp?). Cunningham came on strong last year, but hasn't had nearly the same success this season. Ninkovich is a guy they need to watch out for. IMO he's one of the more underrated linebackers in the NFL. He does a lot of things really well and he can rush the passer as a stand up OLB and a hands in the dirt DE. Obviously Jerrod Mayo and Brandon Spikes are solid inside linebackers as well.

The Patriots' issues are all in the secondary. They got rid of Brandon Merriweather, which was smart and dumb all at the same time because they didn't have anyone who could replace him. They've had a mix-n-match unit at safety and it's really exposed them a lot in the middle of the field. Patrick Chung is a decent player, but he can't do it by himself and after an explosive rookie season cornerback Devin McCourty has come back down to earth a bit and isn't having nearly as dominant of a season as he did last year. Kyle Arrington had a bunch of INT's, but he gave up a lot of plays as well.

Vince Wilfork is still Vince Wilfork and is a hoss, but other than him the Patriots really don't have any big DT's or DE's that are any good.

Probably the biggest issue for the Pats was them switching schemes from the 3-4 last year to a base 4-3 this year with variances and nickel defenses. It hasn't worked well for them at all.

Agree with all this with three minor clarifications:

1. Jermaine Cunningham (who really humiliated Michael Oher last year in what was unquestionably the best game of Cunningham's career) is on IR, so he will not get a chance to test Oher again (not that Cunningham had been anything to fear this season before going on IR).

2. Kyle Love is another big-bodied DL. As another poster pointed out, he is nothing to be afraid of. But he is a pretty solid player.

3. Sterling Moore is probably their best cover CB right now. The fact that someone can come in off the street late in the season and become the best CB for a playoff team underscores the mess that has been the Patriots defensive backfield this year.