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  1. #1

    Breaking down the Texans defense



    I found it a bit surprising that the Texans had the # 2 ranked overall defense this season. Granted they've got some names in Joseph, Cushing & now Watt. But I thought it was intersting that a bulk of their schedule was played against the worst offenses in the NFL.

    They were 2-4 against offenses ranked in the top 15 of the league, & 8-2 against the bottom half offenses.

    Against the 6 offenses that were ranked in the upper half of the league they registered
    -14 sacks in 6 games (5 against the Steelers in Week 3).
    -gave up and avg. of 23.6 pts per game
    -gave up combined 347 yds per game (237 pass yds & 110 rush yds)

    Indianapolis Colts 34-7- #30 ranked offense
    @ Miami Dolphins 23-13- # 22 ranked offense
    @ New Orleans Saints 33-40- #1 ranked offense
    Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 - #12 ranked offense
    Oakland Raiders 20-25- #9 ranked offense
    @ Baltimore Ravens 14-29- #15 ranked offense
    @ Tennessee Titans 41-7- #17 ranked offense
    Jacksonville Jaguars 24-14- #32 ranked offense
    Cleveland Browns 30-12- #29 ranked offense
    @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-9 - #21 ranked offense
    @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20-13- #32 ranked offense
    Atlanta Falcons 17-10 - #10 ranked offense
    @ Cincinnati Bengals 20-19 - #20 ranked offense
    Carolina Panthers 13-28 - #7 ranked offense
    @ Indianapolis Colts 16-19 - #30 ranked offense
    Tennessee Titans 22-23 - #17 ranked offense

    My point here is that I think the Ravens can move the ball thru the air in addition to handing it to Ray Rice. I think we'll be a bit surprised at the gameplan on Sunday and see Flacco put it up 25-30 times.




  2. #2

    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    The Colts loss is the one that sticks out to me. Seriously, you gave up 19 points with playoff seeding on the line.




  3. #3
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Quote Originally Posted by sandiegosean View Post
    The Colts loss is the one that sticks out to me. Seriously, you gave up 19 points with playoff seeding on the line.
    Right, but hey sean how 'bout this...last 3 regular season games :
    Texans lost to Panthers (in Houston) 28 - 13.
    Lost to Colts 19 - 16 in Indy.
    Lost @ home to Titans 23 - 22.

    While they stumbled into the #3 seed, and beat the Bengals, I do not think they can beat the Ravens in Baltimore. That said, I still believe it will be a close Ravens win 27 - 20, but a win just the same.. .Bc




  4. #4
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    The Texans seem to have fairly similar stats to the Ravens in the pass game but are well behind in the run game. The Ravens average giving up 3.5 yards per rush (#1 in the NFL) while the Texans are at 4.1 (#13).




  5. #5
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Nice stats Bc.

    I also think the Ravens won't have a problem moving the ball on the Texans. They certainly didn't have many problems the last time. The only thing keeping that game close was the Raven's inability to score TDs in the red zone. Of course you also have to give credit to the Texans defense for holding them to FGs.

    I wouldn't be surprised for the score to be close at halftime. I would expect (and hope) the Ravens would begin to pull away in the second half.
    I root for the Steelers; I root for their plane to go down.

    I'd rather be dead than pessimistic.




  6. #6

    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    As always I'm a little anxious and cautiously optimistic. I think we win but it will be close and won't even cover the spread. The ravens need to maintain the proper run/pass ratio and don't turn the ball over or at the very least win the turnover margin. Take the ball out of Foster's hands and put in TJ's and we greatly improve our chances of winning.




  7. #7
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Quote Originally Posted by WxKevin View Post
    Nice stats Bc.

    I also think the Ravens won't have a problem moving the ball on the Texans. They certainly didn't have many problems the last time. The only thing keeping that game close was the Raven's inability to score TDs in the red zone. Of course you also have to give credit to the Texans defense for holding them to FGs.

    I wouldn't be surprised for the score to be close at halftime. I would expect (and hope) the Ravens would begin to pull away in the second half.
    Thanx Kevin, but "pull away in the second half" is not the Ravens (Cam's) usual plan.
    Our offense normally goes into hiding if we're up at the half. I don't agree with this, but it is what it is. The Ravens need to be up by 9 points (or more), then they'll play close to the vest, and hold on for the win... Bc




  8. #8

    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Quote Originally Posted by WxKevin View Post
    Nice stats Bc.

    I also think the Ravens won't have a problem moving the ball on the Texans. They certainly didn't have many problems the last time. The only thing keeping that game close was the Raven's inability to score TDs in the red zone.
    That and we spotted them seven points by fumbling in the endzone when Gurode whiffed on a block and got Flacco's head nearly taken off.




  9. #9
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Quote Originally Posted by sandiegosean View Post
    The Colts loss is the one that sticks out to me. Seriously, you gave up 19 points with playoff seeding on the line.
    The Colts game is an anomaly. Wade Phillips couldn't call it because he was out due to getting a reported volleyball-sized benign tumor and his gall bladder removed. The referring in that game was also a joke, especially in the last Colts game winning drive.

    Football Outsiders, who looks at both efficiency and strength of schedule, ranks the Ravens defense #1 and the Texans defense #8. I find the Texans ranking astonishing. The Texans defense has been learning a new defense throughout the season and just getting used to being without key players like Mario Williams out for the season, and Danieal Manning for a good portion of the season. They also missed Wade Phillips calling two games, and sat many of their starters the final week of the season. Against the Bengals last week, the Texans offense, defense and special teams was the most efficient team in the first round of the playoffs.

    In watching the team all year, I think the Texans secondary as a group is much more polished now than they were at the start of the season. Early in the year, the secondary struggled with red zone defense and when teams went 4 wide.




  10. #10
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    Re: Breaking down the Texans defense

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    That and we spotted them seven points by fumbling in the endzone when Gurode whiffed on a block and got Flacco's head nearly taken off.
    This is what KC Joyner wrote about Texans defensive big plays right before the Bengals game:

    “Regarding the pass D, two items stood out.

    The first is the Texans forced bad decision rate. This metric gauges how often a team is able to force the opposing QB into a bad decision (which is defined as when the QB makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover).

    Up until the game before Wade Phillips left for his surgery, the Texans were plugging along at a 2.2 percent forced bad decision rate. Anything in the three percent or higher range is elite for this category, but the 2.2 percent mark is actually very good for a Phillips defense because his primary goal in putting together gameplans is to generate a pass rush. His gameplans certainly do a great job of doing that, but they do end up sacrificing something in the subterfuge category because of it. That sacrifice is usually larger (Phillips teams have historically been in the mid 1 percent range), so that is a positive sign.

    What was also positive is that up until that game the Texans had tallied 33 interceptions/near interceptions, which is a very good total through 13 games. That is something of a byproduct of the higher forced bad decision rate, but it is also due to good ballhawking by the Houston secondary.

    The reason those numbers are listed from that cutoff point is that Houston has notched zero interceptions, two near interceptions and zero forced bad decisions in Phillips absence. What this means is that the Texans defense that was around in weeks 1-14 wasn’t there in weeks 15-17 and assuming Phillips is back at full strength, it should be back to its prior performance level on Saturday.”




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