My final thoughts on tonight's first round

[LukeDaniel]

I'm not a draft expert, but I have spent a ton of time researching this draft class. I won't pretend to have my finger on Ozzie or Eric's pulse, but based on history and patterns of draft behavior, here is the final word on how I see things developing tonight.

1)If the Ravens see one of the following players slide quite a bit to pick 29, I think it's an insta-draft.

Riley Reiff (no brainer)
Marc Barron (no brainer)
Melvin Ingram (no brainer)

Those three names might seem totally unrealistic, but let me state that every year there are 1-2 players who project in the first half of the first round who slide to the last couple of picks of round 1. Last year we saw that with Gabe Carimi, who was a 15-20 guy all pre-draft season and eventually wound up at 29. Prince Amukamara was mocked anywhere from 7-11 by every draft I saw and ultimately went 19. I'm sure that the Bears never thought Carimi would reach them. Ditto for the Giants with Amukamara.

Also, I would think the Ravens immediately draft any of the following players if they slid.

Chandler Jones
Whitney Mercilus
Courtney Upshaw
Cordy Glenn
Shae McClellin (we already heard strong inside sources that the Ravens would draft him if he was there).

It's probably very optimistic to think that any out of Barron/Ingram/Reiff would reach us. However, I think it's a strong possiblility that at least one of those five players directly above could slide 8-10 picks to the Ravens. I think the Ravens draft any of them if they do.

2) There are three players that I think the Ravens have to make a decision on if they are available at 29.

Donta Hightower
Kendall Wright
Jonathan Martin

I don't think any of those three are slam dunks like the 8 players above them, but they might be good enough fits in terms of BPA/need that the Ravens might select them. It's entirely realistic that all three might reach Baltimore at #29. It's also possible that all three might be gone. I think Martin reaching the Ravens is the most realistic of the three. Wright seems to be sliding a bit too. I'm just not sure how they view those two. I would consider these as "on the bubble" players.

3) If all 11 of those players are gone (which is the case in about 2/3rds of all the mock drafts I've seen), I think the Ravens trade down instead of taking Konz, Hill, Jeffery, et all. I think the Ravens view that trio as either:

a) too risky (Hill)

b) having a talent level that can be replicated by someone else in round two (Konz vs. Silatulo)

c) potentially available anyways even after trading down into the early-mid 2nd round (Jeffery)


I'm just stabbing in the dark here. This draft has been so volatile that I would be arrogant to present the above as anything more than an educated guess. Should be interesting tonight.

[chicagoravensfan]

That makes a lot of sense to me. One big bummer is that 4 of the 5 teams drafting directly ahead of us are 3-4 teams with very smart front offices and similar needs: Steelers, Texans, Patriots and Packers. In fact those might be 4 of the top 6 sharpest front offices right now. It would be a bummer to see a few quality guys drop only to see them get snapped up right in front of us.

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[LukeDaniel]

That makes a lot of sense to me. One big bummer is that 4 of the 5 teams drafting directly ahead of us are 3-4 teams with very smart front offices and similar needs: Steelers, Texans, Patriots and Packers. In fact those might be 4 of the top 6 sharpest front offices right now. It would be a bummer to see a few quality guys drop only to see them get snapped up right in front of us.

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Yea, I'd be shocked if the Steelers took anyone other than Glenn or Hightower, unless there is a player like Brockers who slides to them.

In fact, the only two teams that I've seen Hightower attached to in the first round have been Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

[arnie_uk]

i agree, i think if hightower gets past the steelers, we dont pick him and either trade back and still get him, or trade up in the second and get him. I think the only team we need to worry about after the steelers could be the colts who are now converting to a 3-4

Yea, I'd be shocked if the Steelers took anyone other than Glenn or Hightower, unless there is a player like Brockers who slides to them.

In fact, the only two teams that I've seen Hightower attached to in the first round have been Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

[Iscull]

Good post LD. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. I like the potential fallers. There always seems to be a guy or two the falls just out of other teams reaches. Prince falling in a way helped contribute to us getting Jimmy.

[redmike34]

Yea, I'd be shocked if the Steelers took anyone other than Glenn or Hightower, unless there is a player like Brockers who slides to them.

In fact, the only two teams that I've seen Hightower attached to in the first round have been Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

I've seen Hightower go to the Chargers at 18 in two mocks... pretty sure one of them was the ESPN blogger's mock. Yep:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/po...mock-draft-2-0

Saw it in another one too recently... but don't remember where.

[wickedsolo]

I could see Hightower going as high as Dallas if Kuechly and Barron are gone by then.

[LukeDaniel]

I could see Hightower going as high as Dallas if Kuechly and Barron are gone by then.

I agree with you that I could see it happening. IMO Hightower that early is a bad value though. The Cowboys haven't exactly been a stellar drafting team of late, so I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them reach.

[Boulderraven]

The Steelers will likely take Poe if still on the board.

[wickedsolo]

I agree with you that I could see it happening. IMO Hightower that early is a bad value though. The Cowboys haven't exactly been a stellar drafting team of late, so I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them reach.

Is it really bad value though? In a weak draft like this...Hightower is one of those guys that's right outside of that "elite" status...assuming that between picks 1-11 guys like Barron, Cox, Brockers, and DeCastro are all taken...I could kind of see teams maybe moving Hightower up the board. Especially if their a 3-4 team (Jets at 16 could be a possibility as well).

[Boulderraven]

Yea, I'd be shocked if the Steelers took anyone other than Glenn or Hightower, unless there is a player like Brockers who slides to them.

In fact, the only two teams that I've seen Hightower attached to in the first round have been Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Brockers doesn't fit Steelers scheme, POE does. Ingram will be long gone.

[wickedsolo]

Brockers doesn't fit Steelers scheme, POE does. Ingram will be long gone.

I don't think Poe is a 5-technique guy at all.

I don't think Brockers is either, but I definitely don't think Poe is.