A Tale of Two Quarterbacks - Cam Cameron Edition

**bmorecareful** · 10-27-2011, 07:04 PM

Hi everyone, this is my first post. I've been following this board for a while, have yet to post, but I thought the readers might be interested in a post I made on another board (Football Nation). I'm just an average fan who enjoys reading about and discussing football, including from a statistical perspective.

This is an analysis of the two quarterbacks who have spent more than 1 season in Ravens OC Cam Cameron's system (Drew Brees and Joe Flacco), by YPA and passer rating. Since YPA is a big chunk of how PR is calculated, a high YPA w/low rating will indicate poor TD/INT %, and vice versa. I find these two indicators YPA and PR most telling of QB performance. I'm interested in your interpretation of the data.

I think the results are very interesting. In summary, the two quarterbacks performed nearly identically (slight edge to Flacco) during their time in Cam Cameron's system. DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying Flacco is a better QB than Brees, not in the slightest. The eyeball test tells me that right now Brees is worlds above Flacco, but that makes their similarities in this system even more interesting, IMO.

Drew Brees 2002 6.2 (26th) 76.9 (24th)
Drew Brees 2003 5.9 (28th) 67.5 (29th)
Drew Brees 2004 7.9 (7th) 104.8 (3rd)
Drew Brees 2005 7.2 (11th) 89.2 (10th)
DREW BREES UNDER CAM AVG 6.8 84.6

Joe Flacco 2008 6.9 (19th) 80.3 (22nd)
Joe Flacco 2009 7.2 (14th) 88.9 (13th)
Joe Flacco 2010 7.4 (10th) 93.6 (7th)
Joe Flacco 2011 6.7 (24th) 76.2 (26th)
JOE FLACCO UNDER CAM AVG 7.1 86.4

Drew Brees owns the best statistical year in Cam's system in 2004. Flacco's 2010 is second best. In 4 year averages, Brees and Flacco are extremely close. Controlling for the "rule emphasis" change in 2004, I would call them essentially identical.

Drew Brees and Joe Flacco both came out of shotgun spread offenses in college and neither was projected to be an immediate NFL starter. Brees sat for a year, Flacco was forced into immediate action due to injuries. Both QBs under Cam were seen primarily as above average quarterbacks with serious flaws, chief among them inconsistency.

In 02-05 Brees had 7 300 yard passing games. He had 17 100+ PR games. He had 2 100+ PR games in a row 5 times. He had 22 sub-70 PR games. He was very inconsistent, frequently following 100+ PR games with sub-70 PR games and vice versa. He only had an 80+ PR for 3 or more straight games in a season twice: 3 in a row in 05 and 8 in a row in 04. Apart from that, he was as likely to put up a stinker as he was a standout.

From 08-11 Flacco has 6 300 yard passing games. He has 20 100+ PR games. He had 2 100+ PR games in a row 7 times, including a stretch of 3 in a row last year. He has 15 sub-70 PR games. He has been inconsistent as well. He has an 80+ PR for 3 or more straight games 4 times: 4 in a row in 08, 3 in a row in 09, another 3 in a row in 09, and 13 in a row in 2010, which was the longest such streak in the league that year.

Both QBs were criticized in Cam's system for not seeing the whole field, missing open receivers, and questionable decisionmaking (and associated turnovers). Both were accused of being too ready to check down before going through a full progression (part of the reason why backs led each team in receptions in 2 of the 4 years).

It can be discussed at length the relative talent levels on each team, the defenses each team faced, etc. but just from raw data the two QBs are remarkably similar, all the way down to the maddening inconsistency. Since Brees has gone onto become one of the best and most consistently excellent passers in the league, I wonder if Cameron held him back--and if he's holding Flacco back.

**RavensQB** · 10-27-2011, 07:16 PM

Nice comparisons.

I think there are some pretty savy football folk on here that would agree that until CAM is gone Flacco will never get past what others think is Flacco's fault.

The next interesting stat would be to find a Msg board of those years and see what the fan base was saying when Drew Brees had that JAGS game that we just did.

**Kevlar** · 10-27-2011, 07:17 PM

From the Sun:

ONLINE ONLY: Cameron says Flacco does have the freedom to call his own plays
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/r...0,522350.story

"I think that's something you always want to work for," Cameron said. "Joe and I have talked about that. He knows this and understands this. He can call any play that he feel he needs to. He can suggest one at any time. He's made several suggestions this year. He knows when he suggests one, I call it. I just believe in that. I come from that kind of environment where the quarterback gets involved in the playcalling. He's had a significant amount of input. And I'd love for him to do that."

How the hell would Joe have time to "suggest" a play, clear it through Cam, and have Cam o.k. it and call it back in to the offense? During a two minute drill? Is this paragraph for real? I'd say Cam is really the problem if this is the way he thinks.

**Jsmoove** · 10-27-2011, 07:27 PM

Pardon me but Cam Cameron is full of shit that sentence right there is full of so many contradictions you don't have to be a psychologist to figure it out. First of suggesting a play doesn't mean he will listen to it and second of all even if Cam calls it what else does he add to it he pretty much has the final say, third off when would Joe have time to suggest a play? When he's on the sidelines NOT talking to Cam? That shit don't make any sense, from the body language of Joe in the game to the rest of players you can tell there isn't much suggesting going on.

**Jsmoove** · 10-27-2011, 07:29 PM

Also the fact that he said joe and I HAVE TALKED about this is saying volumes right there. Don't even have to disect that.

**Jsmoove** · 10-27-2011, 07:33 PM

The more I read that statement is the more I find, also the fact he said " id love him to that" Suggest that he hasn't yet or only to a certain level. I call bullshit Cam.

**ballhawk** · 10-27-2011, 07:37 PM

joe is still young...alot of fans either forget that, or they don't have much perspective. he has plenty of room for growth.

cameron is an old dog with an archaic bag of tricks. its not going to get any better if he sticks around...which he won't. back to the college ranks after this season. like mattison, the pro game has passed him by.

sean payton could turn flacco into an elite QB...hopefully we can strike gold with somebody like that this offseason.

**Ravenjohn2000** · 10-27-2011, 08:24 PM

Great post.....wonder if Joe, Ozzie or Harbs have ever spoken to Brees or Rivers off the record and got their honest accessment of Cam. Was Cam good for their careers long term, meaning they wouldn't be as good as they are now had they never played under Cam. Maybe in a weird way, it will all work out for the best.

Where did Cam's offenses rank during his years as OC in San Diego?

**houstonravensfan** · 10-27-2011, 08:57 PM

Count me among those who want Cam gone. I DO hope he HAS been holding Joe back. If not . . . Be careful what you wish for. I guess my question is: is Cam so stupid/self-destructive/stubborn [your word here] that he'd rather risk his job and career than give Joe some freedom? Isn't that a little over the top? Maybe NEXT year we'll know.

**ravensinva** · 10-27-2011, 09:00 PM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

joe is still young...alot of fans either forget that, or they don't have much perspective. he has plenty of room for growth.

Joe might still be young, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't. Ray and Ed are once in a lifetime players, we're just wasting their talent waiting for Flacco which might or might not workout.

**ballhawk** · 10-27-2011, 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by ravensinva

Joe might still be young, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't. Ray and Ed are once in a lifetime players, we're just wasting their talent waiting for Flacco which might or might not workout.

what do you propose? cut him and spend the next decade going from one scrub QB to the next again? its hard to land a decent QB. and while joe isn't elite right now, he is good enough to win with.

getting rid of cameron and hoping that somebody else can have better luck with joe is the only option, IMO.

**Corey** · 10-27-2011, 09:17 PM

Originally Posted by ravensinva

Joe might still be young, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't. Ray and Ed are once in a lifetime players, we're just wasting their talent waiting for Flacco which might or might not workout.

This is the problem. For Flacco to get better he has to make mistakes but the team can't afford him to make those mistakes in order to win a Superbowl.

I want to see Ed get a ring as much as the next person but we can't keep doing it at the expense of the future.