Passing numbers way up compared to previous years

**vinny600** · 12-26-2011, 01:32 PM

Wow...good call man. Crazy that after so many years two QB's are probably going to break it. I guess we are in what may be known in the future as the "passing era". I hope it does not keep going like this forever though. I can't imagine football without a major running component, although Dickhead Godell is pushing the game that way.

**SteelFaninBMore** · 12-26-2011, 03:53 PM

Originally Posted by vinny600

I guess we are in what may be known in the future as the "passing era".

I think so. I've already seen a few opinions that when Marino's record falls, it won't be as significant because rule changes have opened up the passing game so much since 1984. And maybe that has some merit. But I still have to give Brees credit...he came within a couple dozen yards of the record back in 2008, and now he's got another shot at it.

He'll be the first player to ever post two 5,000+ yard seasons. Not to mention that a TD tonight will put him at 42 straight games with a touchdown pass, only 6 away from breaking the Unitas record, and I've always thought that was the toughest one in football (besides starting 300 straight games, perhaps).

I'm sifting through more of Brees's numbers, and it's amazing what he's done. Outside of single season records and TD streaks, he's also 13th all-time in yards (and should end up in the top 5 with 3-4 more solid years), 11th in TD passes (and could be as high as 9th by the end of tonight), 8th in all-time passer rating, and 2nd in completion percentage (only .1% behind Chad Pennington).

For a long time any talk of "best current QB" was Manning/Brady as 1/1a, and now it's Rodgers. And I'm taking nothing away from those guys, and I'm not saying they don't deserve it...but it's interesting to me the Brees is rarely in the discussion. The Saints better get him a new contract, and quick.

**52decleetzu** · 12-26-2011, 09:35 PM

Originally Posted by SteelFaninBMore

I think so. I've already seen a few opinions that when Marino's record falls, it won't be as significant because rule changes have opened up the passing game so much since 1984. And maybe that has some merit. But I still have to give Brees credit...he came within a couple dozen yards of the record back in 2008, and now he's got another shot at it.

He'll be the first player to ever post two 5,000+ yard seasons. Not to mention that a TD tonight will put him at 42 straight games with a touchdown pass, only 6 away from breaking the Unitas record, and I've always thought that was the toughest one in football (besides starting 300 straight games, perhaps).

I'm sifting through more of Brees's numbers, and it's amazing what he's done. Outside of single season records and TD streaks, he's also 13th all-time in yards (and should end up in the top 5 with 3-4 more solid years), 11th in TD passes (and could be as high as 9th by the end of tonight), 8th in all-time passer rating, and 2nd in completion percentage (only .1% behind Chad Pennington).

For a long time any talk of "best current QB" was Manning/Brady as 1/1a, and now it's Rodgers. And I'm taking nothing away from those guys, and I'm not saying they don't deserve it...but it's interesting to me the Brees is rarely in the discussion. The Saints better get him a new contract, and quick.

I know most people just look at totals on stats, but they can be skewed heavily by opportunities. Average in ANY stat is much more relevant, especially in Brees' case.

For example, when Marino set the record he only had 564 attempts, but averaged 9 yards a reception. Brees on the other hand is averaging almost a full yard less at 8.2 and is on pace for 665 passing attempts for the year.

If Marino had that many attempts, he would have thrown for 5,996 yards.

If you also take that ridiculous attempt number/yards per attempt and put it to Rodgers this year(about 540), Brady in 2007 (578 attempts), or Manning in 2004 (only 497 attempts) you would get similar results around 6,000 yards.

Conversely, if Brees only had 564 attempts with his 8.2 average like Marino did, he would have only passed for 4,624 yards total.

That said I hope he throws for 500 and shows what a joke these rules have made the passing game.

**52decleetzu** · 12-29-2011, 02:27 AM

Well it looks like AdvancedNFLstats took a look at Brees vs Marino in their latest article.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011...rsus-1984.html

On Monday night we saw history. Drew Brees eclipsed Dan Marino's record of 5,084 total passing yards on a late-game touchdown pass to Darren Sproles. Regular readers know that I'm no fan of most ever or least ever records because they're usually just trivia that end up giving the word 'stats' a bad name. Readers also know that total passing yards is not a particularly meaningful way of measuring a quarterback's skill. But it's hard to let the occasion pass without taking note.

We can use some statistical tools to get a feel for how outstanding each season was. Drawing the line at the top 30 passers in both seasons, we can calculate the number of standard deviations Marino and Brees stand above the season average. Marino's 1984 was 2.4 standard deviations above average, while Brees' 2011 (so far) is 1.9 standard deviations above average. Marino achieved his numbers on 564 attempts while Brees has 622 attempts, and counting. Brees has 13 interceptions compared to Marino's 17. According to PFR's Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, which factors in yards, attempts, interceptions, and touchdown passes, Marino beats Brees 8.9 to 8.0.

Here is another article on the difference between passing games between eras and how they adjusted the numbers...

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...-analysis.html