Starting to refine my draft board this year (have to admit, the lockout was a nice break from having to constantly follow NFL news). Figured I'd start a discussion on who we think is overvalued this year, and who's undervalued.
QB Michael Vick - ADP 1.07:
I'm not saying the guy won't put up the stats that everyone thinks he will. He certainly will...if he stays healthy. That's my concern. If I'm going to take a QB in the 1st round, I need to be as sure as possible that he's going to last all season. I don't know if I can say that with Vick.
WR Greg Jennings - ADP 2.09:
Overvalued considering that he's typically the 6th receiver coming off the board. He won't have that kind of season. For the first 5 weeks of 2010, when Jermichael Finley was healthy, Jennings was averaging 2.8 rec, 36.6 yards, and had 3 TD. Finley was clearly the #1 option. Once Finley went on IR, over the last 11 weeks Jennings stats soared to 5.6 rec, 98.3 yards, and had 9 TD. Finley is healthy again. It's easy to do the math. He's a mid-level WR2.
WR Dwayne Bowe - ADP 3.10:
He had a 7 week tear of 49 rec, 733 yards, and 13 TD. Outside of that he was largely invisible. Way too inconsistent. He can't be relied on week to week. He's being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. He's better suited as as low-end WR2. If someone drafts him that high expecting last year's performance, they're going to be disappointed.
* Those guys above were players that I won't take at the current ADP, but will pull the trigger on if they happened to fall down the board. The following are guys that I have zero interest in drafting under any circumstance:
QB Matthew Stafford - ADP 12.02:
Can't figure out why he's the 13th QB off the board. Sure, he has the upside with a high-powered offense, but he cannot stay healthy. He's missed 19 of 32 games thus far in his career. Why would you suddenly expect him to stay healthy for a full season? Even drafting him as a QB2, if/when he goes down, I don't want to be scouring the waiver wire and having to pick up someone like Sanchez or McNabb to be my backup. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I'll strongly consider drafting him in 2012..but not now.
RB Michael Turner - ADP 2.02:
He's almost 30. He had groin surgery this off-season. Over the last 5 weeks of 2010 he really showed signs of slowing down, averaging only 3.5 ypc against some pretty terrible run defenses. I think that breakdown continues in 2011. Even if he doesn't get injured, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Falcons start phasing him out if he struggles. Rookie Jacquizz Rodgers is the talk of Falcons camp - electrifying back in the mold of a Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice. If Rodgers has a solid preseason, he could be worth a late-round flier.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew - ADP 1.11:
The bad knee just scares me too much. And the risk isn't worth it, as I see MJD's production dropping - defenses are going to sell out to stop him, and Rashad Jennings is going to get more work in an effort to keep MJD healthy. I'll target Jennings in late rounds, but someone else can roll the dice on Jones-Drew.
WR Marques Colston - ADP 4.07:
Even if you ignore the 5 (!) knee surgeries he's had in his 5 year career, there are other reasons to say he's overvalued. Unless you're playing in a league of 10 teams or less, he hasn't put up WR1 numbers since 2007. He's on an offense that spreads the ball around so much it's maddening. Not worth the headache.
RB Ryan Matthews - ADP 4.01:
A lot of sites have him pegged as a breakout candidate, but I don't see it. He can't stay healthy. Missed 4 games last year, and so far this year he's already missed camp time for failing his conditioning test, a toe injury, and now will miss the first preseason game with a strained muscle in his leg. Outside of that, the coaching staff is in love with Mike Tolbert. At worst, Matthews will spend more time on the trainer's table than on the field. At best, he's in a 50/50 split with Tolbert on a pass-first offense, with Tolbert getting the goal line opportunities. I see nothing to get excited about.
Any Washington RB
Ryan Torain - ADP 7.10
Roy Helu - ADP 9.06
Tim Hightower - ADP 12.04:
That's a very crowded backfield. And if you're a veteran FF player, you already know that Mike Shanahan is notoriously fickle with his running backs. You have a 1 in 3 shot of picking the Week 1 starter, and even that's no guarantee - I can easily see all three getting significant playing time at various points throughout the year. I'll just target other sleepers in those rounds.
Any New England RB
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - ADP 6.07
Danny Woodhead - ADP 9.04
Shane Vereen - ADP 13.12:
Almost a mirror image of the situation in Washington.
I'll work on my sleepers and undervalued guys in another post. Didn't expect this one to run so long. Hopefully it'll get the ball rolling. Interested to hear other opinions.