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  1. #37
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    Re: Mark my words......



    In the 20s Quinn was a great value pick so Ozzie was interested. We had a deal with KC right behind Dallas. We might have had a deal with Dallas as well. Forget the value of our picks against either the Cowboys' or Chiefs' pick, we couldn't possibly top the value of C-choke's high rounders. Our first rounder is barely worth more than their second. That is where the value is.

    All I was saying is, we don't have to agree Boller is a bust as a pro quarterback to agree this is his last year as a Raven. Doesn't make sense for him to stay, doesn't make sense for us to extend him when we have McNair around for a couple more years.
    It makes a lot of sense if McNair is retiring at the end of this year. Even if he stays through 2008, that is probably the end of the road. The team will go through a rebuilding phase in 2008 though so I won't be surprised to see McNair retire. This is his, JO's and possibly a few other guys (Ray?) last hurrah at a SB run.

    If Boller plays 3-4 games and looks good I can see us giving him a deal with a modest bonus, essentially a 1-2 year deal with options for us that give him a nice bonus if he sticks. I just don't see him being such a hot commodity that a modest deal won't keep him here and given McNair's age and the fact that we have almost nothing invested in somebody else I can definitely seeing him coming back.

    If one of the young guys really looks good in pre-season and we are definitely rebuilding in 2008 I can see Ozzie rolling the dice and letting Boller go.

    But in all reality, given that we have no real investment in anybody else I see Boller staying as fairly likely.

    I mean, it couldn't be that the Ravens know that Boller isn't in their plans and that a guy was falling in the draft that they liked.
    I think they liked Quinn's value there and they liked the idea of shoring up the spot and giving our future at the position much better security (likelihood that we had a guy in house between Boller or Quinn) but if we REALLY, REALLY wanted Quinn and/or were definite Boller was gone we would have gotten that deal done.

    I don't think it was done to school Savage, the calls were because it was a position where the future is uncertain and there was a value in picking him there. That being said I see it as Ozzie not thinking the cubard was so bare (Boller) that he HAD to do something. I think you both are reading it wrong. Quinn had good value at that pick and Boller isn't a sure thing. If Boller was definitely gone I think we make the move. But I also think Ozzie had interest in Quinn there to give him more comfort on the future.




  2. #38

    Re: Mark my words......

    Outstanding analysis, Sir Greg. I yield & would like now to discuss something other than quarterbacks.
    Festivus

    His definitions and arguments were so clear in his own mind that he was unable to understand how any reasonable person could honestly differ with him.




  3. #39

    Re: Mark my words......

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    In the 20s Quinn was a great value pick so Ozzie was interested. We had a deal with KC right behind Dallas. We might have had a deal with Dallas as well. Forget the value of our picks against either the Cowboys' or Chiefs' pick, we couldn't possibly top the value of C-choke's high rounders. Our first rounder is barely worth more than their second. That is where the value is.


    It makes a lot of sense if McNair is retiring at the end of this year. Even if he stays through 2008, that is probably the end of the road. The team will go through a rebuilding phase in 2008 though so I won't be surprised to see McNair retire. This is his, JO's and possibly a few other guys (Ray?) last hurrah at a SB run.

    If Boller plays 3-4 games and looks good I can see us giving him a deal with a modest bonus, essentially a 1-2 year deal with options for us that give him a nice bonus if he sticks. I just don't see him being such a hot commodity that a modest deal won't keep him here and given McNair's age and the fact that we have almost nothing invested in somebody else I can definitely seeing him coming back.

    If one of the young guys really looks good in pre-season and we are definitely rebuilding in 2008 I can see Ozzie rolling the dice and letting Boller go.

    But in all reality, given that we have no real investment in anybody else I see Boller staying as fairly likely.


    I think they liked Quinn's value there and they liked the idea of shoring up the spot and giving our future at the position much better security (likelihood that we had a guy in house between Boller or Quinn) but if we REALLY, REALLY wanted Quinn and/or were definite Boller was gone we would have gotten that deal done.

    I don't think it was done to school Savage, the calls were because it was a position where the future is uncertain and there was a value in picking him there. That being said I see it as Ozzie not thinking the cubard was so bare (Boller) that he HAD to do something. I think you both are reading it wrong. Quinn had good value at that pick and Boller isn't a sure thing. If Boller was definitely gone I think we make the move. But I also think Ozzie had interest in Quinn there to give him more comfort on the future.
    I see your point Greg.

    But I also don't think we had the ammunition to get a deal done unless we REALLY mortgaged the future and that wasn't gonna happen. That, at least to me, is why we didn't get Quinn.

    My point is that the fact that they were interested shows that they don't believe Boller is the future at QB for this team. Boller is still very young and should be the future but I think that shipped has sailed. Hey, I could be completely wrong. The only scenario I see where he's a Raven next year is him starting at least 8 games this season and showing HUGE improvement. Call me a pessimist if you will, but I certainly don't see that happening.

    Let's face it, McNair has at MOST, 2 years left. That leaves Boller as the only QB with any NFL experience. Yet the FO hasn't thrown any sort of offer his way.

    Why not throw that short term deal with a modest bonus out right now? IMO, it's because they are ready to cut ties at the end of the year and move in a new direction.

    This team will be alot different this time next season. However, with the young talent we've drafted and are developing along with the addition of McGahee, we'll be more in the mode of "transitioning" than "rebuilding".

    PP




  4. #40

    Re: Mark my words......

    PP,

    I'm assuming you missed the post where I said I read my draft pick value chart wrong and admitted I was wrong.


    That said, Greg's analysis is probably the most on point I've read so far. Except I wouldn't say we had a deal with Dallas done. KC, maybe, that makes a lot of sense.


    In any case, we'll see what happens with McNair next year. Our o-line could either be much improved or regress from last year. And we're one injury away from being particularly thin at tackle, despite our now impressive depth in the interior of the line.


    In terms of the Ravens not offering Boller a contract yet . . . that only makes sense.


    He's far from a sure thing. And it makes the most sense to keep your options open to draft players (Quinn, etc) or sign FA's. Shit, the Ravens have just now said they're making an effort to resign Suggs, and he's a probowler at this position.


    Besides, what better than a contract year and probably a few chances to relieve McNair to motivate Boller's level of play. We saw how he ended off 2005 being on the hot seat a bit.


    But you're right, my gut feeling is that ship has sailed. But you know me, I dont want it to. Once Boller leaves I think we're in QB purgatory for another 5-10 years.




  5. #41

    Re: Mark my words......

    Quote Originally Posted by purplepoe View Post
    I see your point Greg.

    But I also don't think we had the ammunition to get a deal done unless we REALLY mortgaged the future and that wasn't gonna happen. That, at least to me, is why we didn't get Quinn.
    PP
    I gotta agree. I believe we offerred #29 + #61... but that wasn't nearly enough. #29 and next years first was not more then CLE gave... It may have taken THREE firsts from us, or #29, #61 AND next years first. That's not close to worth it, you wait that storm out, especially thinking that one of Stanton, Beck or Kolb would make it to #61... I believe that was the plan once Quinn became unavailable. It is obvious that Edwards was never an option in the Raven's war room. I think Troy ended up being the type of pick where they were sick of skipping past him to fill a need, so they gave in and took him for GREAT value.
    The end is all but here for Boller. I agree that if he starts half a dozen regular season games and plays well, that he has a chance for an extension, but a playoff win would secure it. In all likley-hood he will go somewhere to backup an older star, or a rookie. Troy smith could indeed be our backup, as could a Griese type that shakes loose.




  6. #42

    Re: Mark my words......

    Quote Originally Posted by ClericBlackDave View Post
    PP,

    I'm assuming you missed the post where I said I read my draft pick value chart wrong and admitted I was wrong.


    That said, Greg's analysis is probably the most on point I've read so far. Except I wouldn't say we had a deal with Dallas done. KC, maybe, that makes a lot of sense.


    In any case, we'll see what happens with McNair next year. Our o-line could either be much improved or regress from last year. And we're one injury away from being particularly thin at tackle, despite our now impressive depth in the interior of the line.


    In terms of the Ravens not offering Boller a contract yet . . . that only makes sense.


    He's far from a sure thing. And it makes the most sense to keep your options open to draft players (Quinn, etc) or sign FA's. Shit, the Ravens have just now said they're making an effort to resign Suggs, and he's a probowler at this position.


    Besides, what better than a contract year and probably a few chances to relieve McNair to motivate Boller's level of play. We saw how he ended off 2005 being on the hot seat a bit.


    But you're right, my gut feeling is that ship has sailed. But you know me, I dont want it to. Once Boller leaves I think we're in QB purgatory for another 5-10 years.

    Suggs and Boller are apples and oranges. Suggs is gonna command a HUGE deal here or somewhere else. And the Ravens are in negotiations right now.

    They aren't with Boller.

    Boller's level of play has never been consistent. You can point to the 2 games at the end of 05 but the last game was horrendous. We've gone over this before and it's like beating a dead horse now.

    You think Boller can still be something in this league. I don't.

    However, I do want him here as our backup this season because he is our best option as of now.

    Things could change, but I doubt it.

    PP




  7. #43
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    Re: Mark my words......

    They haven't signed Boller because they don't have to. He isn't a hot commodity so no need to lock him down. Ozzie isn't going to make any commitment he doesn't have to.

    If Boller plays 3-4 games and looks good I see him coming back. No way is 8 needed given the last 8 games. Take a look at his last 8 games, add another 3-4 good performances and you have 3/4 of a very good season. At that point he becomes valuable. I think there's something to be said about how he practices and his intangibles as well. If the rest of the team has no faith in him and he practices weak he could be gone regardless of what we see (barring flat out barn-burner performances in a handfull of games). And to some degree the reverse might be true, solid practices and a team that has faith with a handfull of competent performances might bring him back.

    If he were definitely gone there is NO WAY this team waits until the 5th round for value at the position given they have nothing of but hope available in 2-3 years. If we got a guy on the first day I might buy in, but throwing a low rounder at a guy on a wing and a prayer ... eh, I just don't buy Boller being gone. Not until we have some reason to believe we have at least one QB who has a shot to be a starter in 3 years. We have nobody else on the roster you can say has a realistic shot. Smith? It's a flyer pick. Who knows, maybe you strike gold, roll 40 passes in a row, pick a trifecta and hit the Lotto and the kid is the next Tom Brady. But you don't leave that as your only option in 2-3 years. I ain't buying it.




  8. #44

    Re: Mark my words......

    Suggs and Boller are apples and oranges.

    Read my original post. I agree, thats exactly what I was saying. This franchise takes its time to resign players, even players who play at probowl levels.

    Why would Boller, who's a ?, be ahead on the resign list?

    We're on the same page here.


    We have until next years free agency period to see what happens with our QB position. Until then, I think its clear Boller is the backup to McNair, and Smith is someone who was a good value in the 5th round who COULD be a starter if he overcomes a few things.




  9. #45

    Re: Mark my words......

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    They haven't signed Boller because they don't have to. He isn't a hot commodity so no need to lock him down. Ozzie isn't going to make any commitment he doesn't have to.

    If Boller plays 3-4 games and looks good I see him coming back. No way is 8 needed given the last 8 games. Take a look at his last 8 games, add another 3-4 good performances and you have 3/4 of a very good season. At that point he becomes valuable. I think there's something to be said about how he practices and his intangibles as well. If the rest of the team has no faith in him and he practices weak he could be gone regardless of what we see (barring flat out barn-burner performances in a handfull of games). And to some degree the reverse might be true, solid practices and a team that has faith with a handfull of competent performances might bring him back.

    If he were definitely gone there is NO WAY this team waits until the 5th round for value at the position given they have nothing of but hope available in 2-3 years. If we got a guy on the first day I might buy in, but throwing a low rounder at a guy on a wing and a prayer ... eh, I just don't buy Boller being gone. Not until we have some reason to believe we have at least one QB who has a shot to be a starter in 3 years. We have nobody else on the roster you can say has a realistic shot. Smith? It's a flyer pick. Who knows, maybe you strike gold, roll 40 passes in a row, pick a trifecta and hit the Lotto and the kid is the next Tom Brady. But you don't leave that as your only option in 2-3 years. I ain't buying it.
    Believe me, Im not sold on Smith at all. He's worth the risk where we got him but anything we get out of him in the future (I don't expect anything this season) is a bonus.

    As far as the QB situation next season. There are a ton of things that can happen between now and then. McNair could retire or he could be back. Smith could turn into a viable heir apparent or fall completely on his face. We could draft a guy high next year to be groomed under McNair if he decides to stick around.

    I just honestly think that the Ravens aren't close to being sold on Boller and that is a big reason why no contract offer has been made. Could they sign him to a short term deal after next season? Sure, they could. I just don't see it happening. He'll be a F/A next year and might just want to get the hell outta here. I can't say I'd blame him.

    Who knows what kind of F/A QBs will be out there as well.

    All in all, we could have a very different looking QB situation a year from now.

    I just hope we're satisified with the way the 07 season turned out.

    PP




  10. #46
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    Re: Mark my words......

    We could draft a guy high next year to be groomed under McNair if he decides to stick around.
    And I just don't see us going into 2008 with a draft pick and McNair, who will definitely be ready to retire. Boller might want to move on but I doubt the Ravens will just shake his hand and let him go without some other veteran in place besides McNair. He might go, but we will make some kind of overture; again, assuming we don't have another veteran in house.

    Again, I think if they were done with Boller we would have seen a first day pick this year. The call on Boller has to be made before we have a chance to add another QB. We have to decide before FA next year. I just don't see that decision having been made and absolutely nothing long term worked out.




  11. #47

    Re: Mark my words......

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    We have to decide before FA next year. I just don't see that decision having been made and absolutely nothing long term worked out.
    That's really the crux of this issue -- I find it hard to believe that this early, the FO has decided Boller is toast. Maybe he will be, but I don't think it's a done deal yet. There are several variables involved, but the two big ones are 1) how much playing time Boller gets this year, and 2) how he plays (obviously).

    Of course, Boller will have something to say about this too, because he obviously might not want to be back here, regardless of what the FO wants. But it's way too early right now.
    Last edited by highwater; 05-09-2007 at 05:39 PM.




  12. #48

    Re: Mark my words......

    I can't remember if it was on this board on somewhere else where someone brought up this point.

    How many 1st round QBs that aren't successes re-sign with the team after their first contract runs out?

    The list is short if there even is one.

    The successful QBs sign extensions while the ones who struggle leave after the contract has expired.

    Do I think it's 100% a done deal that Boller is gone after the year? No.

    But IMO it's pretty close.

    PP




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