John Clayton on the "value" of the picks traded for McGahee
I had forgotten that the teams discount a pick given in the following year. (which was why getting McNair for a 2007 4th in June was really like giving up a 5th, which was less than the 4th that Tenn had wanted in the 2006 draft).
Did Bills make a good deal?
posted: Thursday, March 8, 2007
While on the surface it looks as though the Bills cleaned up by getting three draft choices for running back Willis McGahee, don't applaud them until you look at the numbers.
The Ravens surrendered a third-rounder and a seventh-rounder this year, and a third-rounder next season for McGahee. As you know, teams use a draft number chart to determine if they are getting equal value in draft choice swaps. The Ravens' pick in the third round is the 29th. Depending on which chart is under consideration, that pick counts as 128 points. For the third-round pick next year, you have to subtract the value of a round. Figuring the Ravens to be a potential playoff team and that they could be picking toward the bottom of the round, give the Bills 47 points for the equivalent of a low fourth-round pick.
The seventh-round choice this year was a throw-in that gets the total to a little less than 180 points. In the draft chart value system, that's a mid-third-round choice. The Thomas Jones trade from Chicago to the New York Jets (the chance to move up 26 spots in the second round) equaled 280 points. The Bears theoretically got better value for their running back.
“Talk's cheap - let’s go play.” - #19, Johnny Unitas
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