First round playoff opponent

**Beerracuda** · 12-21-2009, 11:19 AM

I know this is jumping the gun a bit, but suppose the Ravens make the playoffs as either a #5 or #6 wild card team. Who would you rather race in Round 1? Barring a collapse from any of the division leaders, it looks like a choice between New England and Cincinnati. Even though we lost all 3 games against these 2 teams this season, all games were certainly winnable.

It's a tough choice. It's never a good thing to have to play in Foxboro in January. However, the Pats seem to be sputtering down the stretch, and now might be a good time to play them. On the other hand, Cincy hasn't exactly been playing their best lately either.

So given the choice of New England or Cincy, who would you rather play.

*** Before anyone jumps on the "let's get in first, then worry about who we play" cliche, this is merely a speculation scenario, and has no bearing on what the team does.

**RavenScallywag** · 12-21-2009, 11:32 AM

Knowing we can't face Denver...I don't like our odds.

The only thing going for us against Cincy is it's hard to beat a divisional opponent 3 times in a row. But the Steelers did it last year and Cincy's defense has had our number this year. Maybe we can run it more as we have the past could games and have a chance, idk. But their offense did pretty well running against us to, and now they have LJ to add in to that.

NE actually might be a better matchup. Their D seems to be having trouble lately, but they still have Brady, Moss, and Welker, and with Webb likely out, we have to find SOME answer to cover Moss and Welker and deal with Aiken/Edelman/Watson...You trust Carr or Walker on Moss? Welker?

I guess I'd probably prefer Cincy and hope Cam can figure out a way to beat their D. I think our D can hold it's own on their offense.

**Mista T** · 12-21-2009, 11:38 AM

The Bengals were playing a bit over their heads earlier this season - if the Ravens were to play them in a near perfect game, it would be onto round 2.

The Patriots look mortal, so I would hope that the Ravens playoffs would be approached as being competitive.

**Beerracuda** · 12-21-2009, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by RavenScallywag

I guess I'd probably prefer Cincy and hope Cam can figure out a way to beat their D. I think our D can hold it's own on their offense.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, for the same reasons. Your answer seems pretty non-committal, much like mine. It's really a tough choice between those two. Normally I would use the argument "the devil you know vs. the devil you don't know". In that case, we should know more about Cincy, since they are a division rival. However, this is the first year that Cincy has been decent, and we've played New England enough over the past few years to get a good idea of what they bring. To me, the Pats' biggest threat to us is not Moss, but Welker over the middle. And our history this year of missed tackles could lead to some long gains by Welker.

So, barring a coin toss, I guess I'd rather play Cincy.

There's no doubt in my mind that if the Ravens bring their A-game to the playoffs, both teams are beatable.

**HoustonRaven** · 12-21-2009, 12:02 PM

Is New England even an option?

According to nfl.com, our team to play would be the Bengals.

**Beerracuda** · 12-21-2009, 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Is New England even an option?

According to nfl.com, our team to play would be the Bengals.

I wasn't basing it on current standings. Likely, San Diego will get the #2 seed, and Cincy and New England will get the #3 or #4 seed. If that happens, we will play one of those two, depending on our seeding (#5 or #6).

**HoustonRaven** · 12-21-2009, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by Beerracuda

I wasn't basing it on current standings. Likely, San Diego will get the #2 seed, and Cincy and New England will get the #3 or #4 seed. If that happens, we will play one of those two, depending on our seeding (#5 or #6).

I am not sure but I think with the scenarios, the only option we have is Cincy.

Even if we win the division (which would require Cincy to lose out) we still end up playing Cincy.

**RavenScallywag** · 12-21-2009, 12:32 PM

So here's the assumptions for this exercise...

Colts have locked #1 seed
SD is in the driver seat for #2...I think the only way they don't get #2 seed is to lose out and have Cincy or NE win out. Not sure the round of tiebreakers after that, I know SD just beat Cincy, so they have the head to head there. Did SD play NE this year?

So right now, Bengals have best shot of winning AFCN. It's impossible for Pitt to win it, and for us it would take "Hail Mary" scenario.

NE, with the Miami loss and win over Buffalo, have basically clinched AFC East. If they lose out and Miami wins out...they tie W-L record, they have the same Division record, and they split in head-to-head. It would come down to conference record...and again assuming NE lose out Miami win out, Miami would then get the tiebreaker at 7-5 to NE 6-6. NE faces Jacksonville and Houston, Miami faces Houston and Steelers. If NE wins at Jacksonville, they should clinch.

So positioning wise, we need to see how the last two games play out to determine which is 3rd or 4th seed. And assuming we get 5th or 6th, depending on what all the locked up teams do, would then determine which we get. But it's pretty fair to assume we'd play NE or Cincy if we make it. If Miami wins AFC East, we're out. And again, very unlikely we'd get AFCN title.

**Beerracuda** · 12-21-2009, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I am not sure but I think with the scenarios, the only option we have is Cincy.

Even if we win the division (which would require Cincy to lose out) we still end up playing Cincy.

Assuming we don't win the division, if we go in as a #5 or #6 seed, we WILL play whichever team is #3 or #4 (#3 plays #6, #4 plays #5). Obviously, the last 2 weeks will determine which team finishes at each seed.

**Beerracuda** · 12-21-2009, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by RavenScallywag

If Miami wins AFC East, we're out. And again, very unlikely we'd get AFCN title.

If we win out, it doesn't matter what Miami does. We win and we're in. We completely control our own destiny now.

**RavenScallywag** · 12-21-2009, 12:37 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I am not sure but I think with the scenarios, the only option we have is Cincy.

Even if we win the division (which would require Cincy to lose out) we still end up playing Cincy.

This is because if we assume the wild cards are us and Denver, we have the head to head on Denver, so we can't be the #6 seed and they be the #5 seed (Unless their W-L record bests us after two games). So right now, Cincy is the #4 seed, so #4 vs #5 = Us vs Cincy...

If Denver gets knocked out, we lose to Pitt and win at Oakland, Miami wins out but doesn't get AFC East...assuming no one else knocks us out (not simulating other scenarios), we would take the #6 seed, tying W-L record with Miami, but they best us in Division record at 4-2 (Ours would b3 3-3 due to loss to Pitt). So there, we would get NE as the #3 seed.

**RavenScallywag** · 12-21-2009, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by Beerracuda

If we win out, it doesn't matter what Miami does. We win and we're in. We completely control our own destiny now.

Sorry, I wasn't fully playing out all scenarios...yes, if we win out, we have the tiebreaker over Denver and would best everyone else record wise, so we'd be #6 seed if Miami wins AFC East, with NE being #5. So in that scenario, we'd get Cincy, who would likely move up to #3 seed.

Confusing!