Ravens' front office can't be blamed for current WR corps

**effo5231** · 07-21-2009, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by TRAP

As everyone knows, injuries are part of a players game.

Last I read, DEM WILLS still isnt 100%. I read that he could do some things on the foot but not everything.

Sure, he has to stay healthy this year.

He might have 89 catches for 1,000 yds if he does but so far, he hasnt put together 1 complete season and Clayton has been up and down and Marcus didnt catch a pass all last year - again for injuries, same as DEM WILLS.

Ozzie was banking on that when he didnt take a receiver in the draft.

Right now, there are still a lot of questions.

I have nothing to add to what srobert already said except to ask Trap something...

Trap, can you simply not spell "Demetrius Williams?" Why the DEM WILLS thing?

**srobert96** · 07-21-2009, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by TRAP

As everyone knows, injuries are part of a players game.

Last I read, DEM WILLS still isnt 100%. I read that he could do some things on the foot but not everything.

Sure, he has to stay healthy this year.

He might have 89 catches for 1,000 yds if he does but so far, he hasnt put together 1 complete season and Clayton has been up and down and Marcus didnt catch a pass all last year - again for injuries, same as DEM WILLS.

Ozzie was banking on that when he didnt take a receiver in the draft.

Right now, there are still a lot of questions.

Anquan Boldin played 16 games his rookie year and then missed 7 games and 4 games the next two years. Played 16 games in his 4th season and 12 the last two seasons. I certainly would not call him the model of durability. Williams played in all 16 games his rookie year and had injury problems the last two. Does not mean that he will not be healthy this year. Back in the June he looked very good with only a slight limp. Which was a huge improvement over the previous workout.

Maybe the front office did not feel that they could get a better wr than Marcus Smith or Harper after their pick in the first round. Regardless there was not much on the free agent market in terms of wr. Rookie wrs rarely if ever make an impact. I doubt there is anyone on this site that would share the opinion of taking Nicks or rutgers wr over Oher. If the Ravens had gotten Pettigrew it would have been great for the future but would have hurt the team this year. No RT except for Terry. Lj Smith and Heap are very good pass catching TEs so there would be no upgrade there. He is not a receiver so we would be in the same situation with the Mason retirement.

**psuasskicker** · 07-21-2009, 03:06 PM

Originally Posted by Jeremiah W

You can not predict what a WR will do in his 2nd, and 4th seasons based on what stats they have put up as a rookie or as a 2 or 3 in a run based offense.

You also can not predict injury based on injury history or a lack of one. It is just never that simple. Not even close.

The best you can do is guess a percentage of the time right, and hope that you get lucky with the many variables that go into a WR being productive or at least a good value for his price.

Yeah but that's exactly what you're supposed to do, and then figure out how likely the person is to become a strong player at the position.

Teach yourself a little research through a project specifically relating to this subject...it would be a good exercise and valuable for the sake of this discussion. Go back and look at WRs who were picked in round 3+ and through their first three years didn't have more than 25 receptions or 450 rec yards. Look from 1993 through 2003. Then, figure out how many of those guys had:
- One season with over 800 rec yds.
- One season with over 1,000 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 800 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 1,000 rec yds.
- Went to one or more Pro Bowls.

I think you would find that happens a shockingly low percentage of the time. And because of that, you need to realize that the likelihood that DWill - despite everything you and many others love to say they've "seen in him" - will never become anything other than a role playing receiver who fails to crack 800 ... certainly 1,000 ... yards in a season.

"Can" he be a good to great WR? Sure, he "can" be. But the odds that he does are very, very, VERY low.

- C -

**srobert96** · 07-21-2009, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by psuasskicker

Yeah but that's exactly what you're supposed to do, and then figure out how likely the person is to become a strong player at the position.

Teach yourself a little research through a project specifically relating to this subject...it would be a good exercise and valuable for the sake of this discussion. Go back and look at WRs who were picked in round 3+ and through their first three years didn't have more than 25 receptions or 450 rec yards. Look from 1993 through 2003. Then, figure out how many of those guys had:
- One season with over 800 rec yds.
- One season with over 1,000 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 800 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 1,000 rec yds.
- Went to one or more Pro Bowls.

I think you would find that happens a shockingly low percentage of the time. And because of that, you need to realize that the likelihood that DWill - despite everything you and many others love to say they've "seen in him" - will never become anything other than a role playing receiver who fails to crack 800 ... certainly 1,000 ... yards in a season.

"Can" he be a good to great WR? Sure, he "can" be. But the odds that he does are very, very, VERY low.

- C -

Donald Driver Round 7 37 combined receptions first 3 years. 928 4th
Derrick Mason Round 4 47 combined receptions first 3 years. 895 4th
Lance Moore Undrafted 33 combined receptions first 3 years. 1064 4th
Mike Furrey Undrafted 21 total receptions first 3 years. 1086 4th

I only looked at receivers that have done well the last 2 years. The one thing I did notice when I looked at the stats was that the third and fourth year are when receivers come into their own. More so in the third year.

In any given year there is only about 20 wrs that hit the 1000 yd mark. Another 15 hit the 800 yard mark. So a little more than 1 per team hit 800 yards.

**Jeremiah W** · 07-21-2009, 04:07 PM

Originally Posted by psuasskicker

Yeah but that's exactly what you're supposed to do, and then figure out how likely the person is to become a strong player at the position.

Teach yourself a little research through a project specifically relating to this subject...it would be a good exercise and valuable for the sake of this discussion. Go back and look at WRs who were picked in round 3+ and through their first three years didn't have more than 25 receptions or 450 rec yards. Look from 1993 through 2003. Then, figure out how many of those guys had:
- One season with over 800 rec yds.
- One season with over 1,000 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 800 rec yds.
- More than one season of over 1,000 rec yds.
- Went to one or more Pro Bowls.

I think you would find that happens a shockingly low percentage of the time. And because of that, you need to realize that the likelihood that DWill - despite everything you and many others love to say they've "seen in him" - will never become anything other than a role playing receiver who fails to crack 800 ... certainly 1,000 ... yards in a season.

"Can" he be a good to great WR? Sure, he "can" be. But the odds that he does are very, very, VERY low.

- C -

The game has changed. The passing game accross the NFL is up and more of the top WRs come almost out of nowhere than ever before.

Last year plenty of the guys at the top of the Wr lists were not top picks.
Wes Welker
Brandon Marshall
Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Ward, Mason, TJ and so on beat the odds and are trending them in a new direction.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...true&Submit=Go

I could go way back and look at a bunch of numbers, but recently the NFL changed the rules to make high powered pass attacks easier and more prevalent, and many old time passing records are getting shattered, even Dan Marino records.

**psuasskicker** · 07-21-2009, 04:07 PM

Originally Posted by srobert96

Donald Driver Round 7 37 combined receptions first 3 years. 928 4th
Derrick Mason Round 4 47 combined receptions first 3 years. 895 4th
Lance Moore Undrafted 33 combined receptions first 3 years. 1064 4th
Mike Furrey Undrafted 21 total receptions first 3 years. 1086 4th

I only looked at receivers that have done well the last 2 years. The one thing I did notice when I looked at the stats was that the third and fourth year are when receivers come into their own. More so in the third year.

In any given year there is only about 20 wrs that hit the 1000 yd mark. Another 15 hit the 800 yard mark. So a little more than 1 per team hit 800 yards.

A critical component of this is finding how many have NOT done so. I would bet my house that I could name ten that didn't for every one you find that did...

- C -

**Jeremiah W** · 07-21-2009, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by psuasskicker

A critical component of this is finding how many have NOT done so. I would bet my house that I could name ten that didn't for every one you find that did...

- C -

How many day 2 picks are not even still in football after 3 years in the first place though? You can spin numbers almost anyway you want.

**psuasskicker** · 07-21-2009, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by Jeremiah W

The game has changed. The passing game accross the NFL is up and more of the top WRs come almost out of nowhere than ever before.

Last year plenty of the guys at the top of the Wr lists were not top picks.
Wes Welker
Brandon Marshall
Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Ward, Mason, TJ and so on beat the odds and are trending them in a new direction.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...true&Submit=Go

I could go way back and look at a bunch of numbers, but recently the NFL changed the rules to make high powered pass attacks easier and more prevalent, and many old time passing records are getting shattered, even Dan Marino records.

So what? None of that is at all relevant...

Regarding the passing rules changing, they're changing for every team. DWill isn't a good receiver today vs. a bad one from 15 years ago just cause of passing rule differences. This point has no meaning.

Regarding a "trend" toward receivers from later rounds becoming better, it's simply not true. WRs drafted in the 3rd or after from '80 - '89:
Andre Reed, Mark Clayton, Anthony Carter, Eric Martin, Mark Carrier, Tony Martin, Bill Brooks...
Reed's probably the only one that may make the Hall on that list, but so what? Not likely many if any from your list will either.

From '70 - '79...
Largent, Stallworth, Cliff Branch, Pat McInally, Henry Marshall, Drew Hill, Roy Green, Tony Hill...

It's not like suddenly WRs taken in rounds 3+ are making an impact where they weren't before. You'll always have a handful that do.

The problem is, it's just a handful...it's never a significant percentage. Which means the odds any of ours do are very low.

- C -

**psuasskicker** · 07-21-2009, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by Jeremiah W

How many day 2 picks are not even still in football after 3 years in the first place though? You can spin numbers almost anyway you want.

From '95 through '05, round 3+ WRs: 252

Number that made it three years or more: 96

FWIW, the ones that didn't make it 3+ years still count. We currently have only two receivers on our roster behind Clayton that have 3 or more years of NFL experience. Neither of them have more than 31 receptions in a season.

- C -