Recent history of first round Wide Receivers

[52decleetzu]

2008 Wide Receivers

None taken....are we seeing a trend starting here or just lack of talent?

2007 - Wide Receivers

1 2 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech Detroit Lions
1 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Ohio State Miami Dolphins
1 23 Dwayne Bowe Louisiana State Kansas City Chiefs
1 27 Robert Meachem Tennessee New Orleans Saints
1 30 Craig Davis Louisiana State San Diego Chargers
1 32 Anthony Gonzalez Ohio State Indianapolis Colts

Johnson is legit,Ginn is a question mark,Bowe looking good,Meachem looking like a bust(was inactive for ever game his rookie year,12 catches this year)Craig Davis looking like a bust,Gonzales looking like a solid #2/3.

We'll say 3 out of 6 good picks.

2006 - Wide Receivers

1 25 Santonio Holmes Ohio State Pittsburgh Steelers

Fuck the Stealers,they just got lucky.Took Holmes a couple years to blossom.

1 of 1 successful

2005 - Wide Receivers

1 3 Braylon Edwards Michigan Cleveland Browns
1 7 Troy Williamson South Carolina Minnesota Vikings
1 10 Mike Williams USC Detroit Lions
1 21 Matt Jones Arkansas Jacksonville Jaguars
1 22 Mark Clayton Oklahoma Baltimore Ravens
1 27 Roddy White Alabama-Birmingham Atlanta Falcons

Edwards came out with a bang,but cant seem to catch the ball these days,Williamson straight bust,Mike Williams is flipping burgers somewhere,Jones looking like a bust,Clayton solid #2,Roddy White blossomed but it took him 3 years.

We'll say 3 of 6 again this year.

2004 - Wide Receivers

1 3 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh Arizona Cardinals
1 7 Roy Williams Texas Detroit Lions
1 9 Reggie Williams Washington Jacksonville Jaguars
1 13 Lee Evans Wisconsin Buffalo Bills
1 15 Michael Clayton Louisiana State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 29 Michael Jenkins Ohio State Atlanta Falcons


Fitz is a stud,Williams (in my view) can still be a stud,other Williams was a bust,Evans god pick, Jenkins has developed into a solid #2(only took him 5 years and a legit #1 on the other side)Clayton had a great rookie year only to follow it up with a bunch of 400yd seasons.

We'll say 3 out of 6 here.

2003 - Wide Receivers

1 2 Charles Rogers Michigan State Detroit Lions
1 3 Andre Johnson Miami (Fla.) Houston Texans
1 17 Bryant Johnson Penn State Arizona Cardinals

Rogers bust,Johnson flat out stud,other Johnson legit 2 on most teams.

2 of 3 here.


2002 Wide Receivers

1 13 Donte' Stallworth Tennessee New Orleans Saints
1 19 Ashley Lelie Hawaii Denver Broncos
1 20 Javon Walker Florida State Green Bay Packers

Looks like we have an 0 fer in 2002.Walker had a couple good years in 04 and 06 but is now looking like a flame out,Lelie and Stalworth pretty much busts as well for where they got taken.

0 for 3


2001 - Wide Receivers

1 8 David Terrell Michigan Chicago Bears
1 9 Koren Robinson North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks
1 15 Rod Gardner Clemson Washington Redskins
1 16 Santana Moss Miami (Fla.) New York Jets
1 25 Freddie Mitchell UCLA Philadelphia Eagles
1 30 Reggie Wayne Miami (Fla.) Indianapolis Colts

Terrell bust,Robinson is a drunk,Gardner never lived up to the hype bust,Moss stud,Mitchell bust,Wayne Stud.

2 out of 6 picks succeeded.


Final tally for the wideouts is 14 of 31 picks made it,or about 47%.Not only that,but the ones that went bust went bust HARD and fast usually.Thats actually just a little below standard for the average position,but the difference at WR is that some of those guys werent just disappointments.....they were MASSIVE losers at their attempt to transition to the NFL.

Also if you notice,a lot of the flat out studs like Fitz,Johnson,Edwards,Williams were all taken in the top ten,and while there were some late 1st success stories they took some time to develop like Holmes and White for example.

[RavensInBrazil]

I think calling Ted Ginn Jr. a bust is a bit of a stretch...he did jack in his rookie season but really emerged as the Dolphins' #1 this year

[RavenScallywag]

to be fair, you could probably do the same with 1st round QBs...

2008 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco - 2/2, an unusual year for rookie QBs!
2007 - JaMarcus Russel, Brady Quinn - 1/2, both showed some signs of promise while also showing signs of failure
2006 - Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler - 1/3, Cutler is a stud QB...so much for the big Leinart vs Young debate
2005 - Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell - 2/3, we'll give Rodgers and Campbell benefit of the doubt here. Smith is an abolsute bust
2004 - Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman - 3/4

So far, this theory is looking busted, right? 9/14

2003 - Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman - 1/4, Palmer has enjoyed success, the rest are destined to be backups
2002 - David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey - 0/3, given the Harrington one, I'm tempted to make this 0/4 with how bad a bust Harrington was
2001 - Mike Vick - 0/1, he was a great RB while he wasn't dogfighting.


Final count - 10/22 - Pretty poor numbers, though the trend as of late looks to be that QBs are getting better through preperation or being brought along slowly.

[52decleetzu]

I think calling Ted Ginn Jr. a bust is a bit of a stretch...he did jack in his rookie season but really emerged as the Dolphins' #1 this year

While I highlighted him I said he was a question mark and not a bust.

Feel free to add him in if you want,it doesnt change much either way.

I think most analysts would argue thought that Ginn is no more than a slot receiver in the NFL,and a 2nd/3rd option at best.He just doesnt have the physicality to match up with NFL corners on the outside,thus limiting him as far as his ceiling.Almost everyone agrees Ginn was a terrible reach at 9,and should have been taken more towards the later part of round one or even round 2.

[52decleetzu]

to be fair, you could probably do the same with 1st round QBs...

2008 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco - 2/2, an unusual year for rookie QBs!
2007 - JaMarcus Russel, Brady Quinn - 1/2, both showed some signs of promise while also showing signs of failure
2006 - Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler - 1/3, Cutler is a stud QB...so much for the big Leinart vs Young debate
2005 - Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell - 2/3, we'll give Rodgers and Campbell benefit of the doubt here. Smith is an abolsute bust
2004 - Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman - 3/4

So far, this theory is looking busted, right? 9/14

2003 - Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman - 1/4, Palmer has enjoyed success, the rest are destined to be backups
2002 - David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey - 0/3, given the Harrington one, I'm tempted to make this 0/4 with how bad a bust Harrington was
2001 - Mike Vick - 0/1, he was a great RB while he wasn't dogfighting.


Final count - 10/22 - Pretty poor numbers, though the trend as of late looks to be that QBs are getting better through preperation or being brought along slowly.

Of courese I could,and I already have.The success rate is about 50% for QB's and most position players in the 1st round.

Fortunately i dont think we need a QB in the first round.

I did the CB's and receivers to show the difference because that is the great debate these days,whether to take a WR or CB in the first round.It clearly shows in past history that a CB is a much better pick in round 1 by far.

[jonboy79]

I also think it proves a point, in that people always complain about how bad it is with first rd QB's, to see that it may be worse with wideouts. CB does have a clear edge here.

[52decleetzu]

I also think it proves a point, in that people always complain about how bad it is with first rd QB's, to see that it may be worse with wideouts. CB does have a clear edge here.

I was actually pretty amazed the success rate was that high, like I said before I have done this with QB's and a few other positions,and none were even close to the number of good players the CB position produced.

[shaslers]

Here is a good discussion on the difficulty of drafting wide receivers.

This isn't the first author to make the point that wide receiver is the most difficult position to project into the NFL.

First, because it requires rare athleticism. Top-end speed, quickness, leaping, big hands, hand-eye-coordination, toughness.

Guys who possess all that are few and far between. They really stand out in college when they approach the level of athletic superiority.

In the NFL that talent gap narrows. You're down to just a few freaks like Moss, T.O., Fitzgerald, Johnson and Johnson, for instance, who can dominate on athleticism.

The other factor that is mentioned in this article is more related to the reason drafting a quarterback is so hard.

A successful receiver has to be able to read defenses as well as a quarterback. It is a misconception to think that the quarterback calls a play and that call dictates a certain pattern. Both the QB and WR are required to read the defense and adjust the route accordingly. They have to be on the same page. It's the proverbial "speed of the game" and understanding what defenses are trying to do in coverage. It's the savvy that Raymond Berry used to talk about, perceiving that a corner is going to take the inside away because of what foot he is putting his weight on.

A quarterback struggles and likewise a WR takes three years to develop until they have that savvy. Some are never going to get it.

Using 52DCU's percentages, 100% of the receivers taken in the first round have the athletic talent to play in the NFL, but 50% fail to develop the savvy to play at that level.

It's a lesson Matt Millen never learned.

[Jeremiah W]

I think there are a few guys in the bust catagory that should not be but it is about 50/50 and it is mental more than physical. The thing is though the risk vs reward factolr. What is it going to take to trade for a viable #1 WR that is under contract. The price of a 1st, 3rd and a 6th plus a top of the market contract tells you what the potential value is if you hit.
What would it take to trade for a solid starting CB? A really fat Shaun Rodgers who had falied a steroid test and sevral preseason condition tests, plus a 3rd rounder for Bodden. Portis for Bailey. A 4th rounder for Fabian Washington and a 2nd rounder for Deangello Hall.

[shaslers]

Right.

Another way to look at it is that fans and media types in more than half the NFL cities will complain that their team lacks a #1 WR. Go down the roster lists. Fans are constantly saying that there #1 is really a #2, whatever that means, and their #2 is really a #3.

[RAVENOUS52]

Right.

Another way to look at it is that fans and media types in more than half the NFL cities will complain that their team lacks a #1 WR. Go down the roster lists. Fans are constantly saying that there #1 is really a #2, whatever that means, and their #2 is really a #3.

But when WE say it, we MEAN IT.

[Jeremiah W]

There is not a WR in the history of football that has put up huge numbers with shaky Qb play and a suspect O line. I still think it is too soon to write off Clayton as a #1 Wr, but it is time to take another Wr early or grab another solid vet with some size or some serious speed.

Who ever we have at Wr should be better than this year with a Rookie Qb/ HC and new OC. Just the knowledge of the playbook and off season timing work should be enough to improve the pass offense. The O line should be a lot better as well if Joe speeds up his reads. The run game looks good, and when healthy we have a stable of rbs to keep the balance. I think we have the luxury of risking 1st round pick (or early 2nd) on a Wr that will not be pressured to start right away but can produce a few big plays and provide more quality depth at one of the few thin spots. Mason is great but he is going to need to be replaced soon. It would be great if our future #1 got to play with him for a year or two.