Colts Home vs. Road
The Colts WERE a terrfic road team, going 28-8 on the road from the beginning of 2002 through the 4th road game of '06.
However, the most recent data is the most pertinent, and the 4 straight losses on the road, to what can only be termed as very average competition, should be a major concern for the Colts.
I can buy a lot about what I am reading with regard to Manning running a silent audible system, but his record indicates that he is less successful (still good, just not as good) on the road (109.6 Passer rating with only 5 sacks at home, still a good 93.0 with 9 sacks on the road). Don't like that one? OK, Addai has averaged 5.6 YPC at home and 4.1 YPC on the road. Rhodes is the same deal, 3.6 YPC at home, 3.1 on the road.
How about the defense? Well the rushing defense was historically bad, as you know, but it was that much worse on the road (289/1598 5.5 YPC) than at home (230/1170 5.1 YPC). The pass rush generated 19 sacks for 123 yards at home, which is not a bad total (they would have tied for 12th in the league in sacks if they could have duplicated that on the road). However, on the road, the Colts sacked the QB just 6 times for 34 yards. The Colts opponent QB rating was an excellent 61.0 at home (actually better than the Ravens 63.5 home mark). On the road, however, the Colts registered a 77.4 opp QB rating (not germane to this game, but the Ravens were an amazing 56.6 on the road with 27 sacks) which is just a tad better than the league average of 78.5.
Summarizing it home and road, the Colts:
Run Defense goes from historically bad to even worse,
Pass Defense goes from top 2 to average,
Pass Rush goes from above average to bottom 2 or 3,
Passing Offense goes from league best to very good,
Rushing Offense goes from very good to below average,
Turnovers are included in the above only peripherally in Mannings QB rating. The Colts net turnovers are +7 for the year, good for T6th in the NFL, but that breaks down as +5 on the road and +2 at home. The Ravens are +9 at home and +8 on the road. In road games where they were 0 or worse in the turnover category, the Colts are 0-4 (4-0 when they are at least +1). The Ravens are 4-0 when they win the TO battle, and amazingly are 3-1 (beat SD with a -2, Atlanta with a -1, and Cleveland with a -1, lost to Car with a 0) when they are 0 or worse in the TO category. I think it is fair to say the Ravens might win this game even if they lose the TO battle, however there is no 2006 evidence to support that claim for the Colts.
Re: Colts Home vs. Road
So basically: take care of your business and you win this one. Let's do this!!