ProfootballFocus.com - AFC Key Performers in 2008

**UKRavenStockers** · 11-27-2008, 05:27 AM

www.ProFootballFocus.com is a website where we specialise in analyzing and ranking player performance at every position. When pundits put up their views as to say the top ten Tackles frankly, 99% of the time, they’re just guessing; they’ve heard a few comments, watched a couple of games from a number of teams, held up their wetted fingers, sniffed the air and began to type. We don’t guess; we watch every play of every game and grade each player to bring you information you simply can’t get anywhere else. Here’s our latest article on a few key players from the AFC (our NFC article will follow) but you can find every player at www.profootballfocus.com . Enjoy……

There’s just over a quarter of a season in our database so we’ve seen every team a minimum of four times. Whilst the performances of many players will change as more data is added and they play more games, certain trends have appeared which will probably bear scrutiny well after it’s all over. We’ve decided to focus on one player from each team including the good, the bad and the downright awful.

Baltimore (games analyzed: W1 vs. Cin, W4 @ Pit, W7 @ Mia and W9 @ Cle)
There’s plenty of positives to choose from with the Ravens; the emergence of Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata starting to live up to his potential and a welcome return to form for Bart Scott. However, those were all a little too obvious for us so we chose instead to highlight the play of WR Derek Mason.
He may not end up very high in the yardage or TD listings but not being very enamoured with those anyway we prefer to dwell on other things; catching 73% of the balls thrown his way despite playing with a Rookie QB, not dropping a catch, avoiding 7 tackles (mostly with the graceful spin he makes after catching the come-back or quick out) and the almost effortless way he leans over the sideline and still keeps both feet rooted to snag the important 3rd down reception. His blocking may be nothing to write home about but he can certainly hold is own in that area and you know any failing won’t be for lack of effort.

Buffalo (games analyzed: W1 vs. Sea, W2 @ Jac, W3 vs. Oak and W9 vs. NYJ)
Asked to name the top 10 corners in the NFL this year I’m not sure how many would mention Jabari Greer but we certainly would. His standard of play and level of consistency in the games we’ve seen to date has been excellent. So far he’s allowing less than 40% of the balls into his coverage to be completed, defensed 4 passes and intercepted another. He did give up a spectacular leaping TD grab to Nate Burleson in the 2nd quarter of the Seahawks game but not many would have countered that. The ballet like routine where he followed the steps of Jerricho Cotchery identically before intercepting the pass and taking it back for a TD was a thing of beauty and if you haven’t seen it and love great CB play, make sure you get a copy of the Jets game on DVD.

Cincinnati (Games analyzed: W1 @ Bal, W2 vs. Ten, W3 vs. Cle and W8 @ Hou)It would have been so easy to have chosen any number of Bengals to bash but why kick a team when they’re down? We chose instead to focus on one of the few positives; RG, Bobbie Williams.
Only Chris Snee kept Bobbie off our All-Pro team last year and whilst Chris is looking favourite to be our starter again, it would be a shame to see Mr Williams not getting at least some credit.
While he may only scrape into the top 20 pass protecting guards in the league it’s his run blocking that stands out. In this area not only will he bully a lot of the lighter defensive tackles at the line but he also shows the athleticism to get downfield on screens etc.
The last game we graded him in (W8) was not his best; allowing the first sack we’ve seen him give up in two years (to Travis Johnson) and 4 pressures as well but I’m hoping for Cincinnati’s sake that’s an aberration as he’s likely to be the only Bengal to be at least worthy of Pro Bowl consideration by the seasons end.

Cleveland (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Dal, W4 @ Cin, W9 vs. Bal and W10 vs. Den)Despite the Browns results at least two of four major off season pick-ups look to have been excellent value at this stage in the season. Whilst Donte Stallworth is only just back into things after his early season injury, Shaun Rogers has been nothing short of excellent and Rex Hadnot has been a big upgrade at RG. Ufortunately the same can’t be said of LE, Corey Williams, the 4th member of that quartet, who, in theory at least, many considered the most sure-fire success. Playing an almost identical number of snaps as “Big Baby” Rogers (80% of the total number) at a position where you would expect more pass rush, Williams has generated 2 less sacks (0), 4 less hits (0) and 5 less pressures (3) than his colleague. To be fair he has batted down 3 passes but this in itself may be an indication as to the lack of penetration he’s achieving. However, it’s his run defense which is most troubling. Here his bottom 5 ranking amongst 3-4 DEs is a lot worse than anyone would have thought. Checking back on last years analysis we found him to be a very inconsistent (although overall a good) player and maybe that will be the case with the Browns as he finds his feet in the 3-4.

Denver (Games analyzed: W1 @ Oak, W2 vs. SD, W9 vs. Mia and W10 @ Cle)
Currently Denver ranks 26th in run defense and in no small part, that’s as a result of having a very poor group of Defensive Tackles. Whilst Dewayne Robertson has no reason to feel happy with his showing (especially considering the improvement the Jets have shown since taking Kris Jenkins) at least he’s graded out as average in the last two games. Marcus Thomas on the other hand has been consistently poor. Whilst over the four games, against the pass he’s managed 3 pressures, which is average for a DT, unfortunately when it comes to the run, he has more pressures than tackles and isn’t doing much else to help either. In fact in four games listed above and playing exactly half the defensive snaps (130) against the run we found only player he beat to make a play; Justin Smiley hold your head in shame. If this doesn’t improve it wouldn’t surprise us to see Kenny Peterson poaching a few more snaps, even on running downs.

**UKRavenStockers** · 11-27-2008, 05:28 AM

Houston (Games analyzed: W1 @ Pit, W4 @ Jax, W8 vs. Cin and W11 @ Ind)
When DE, Mario Williams was a rookie I remember doing an analysis of his first game against Philadelphia and like nearly everyone else having a good old chortle at the “hapless” Texans for their pick. While some may still see the team in that light it’s only a tiny minority that see Mario as anything other than solid gold. The only issue I had here was highlighting the performances of clearly the best player the Texans have to all but the rabid anti-Texans. The real story is though, not so much his emergence, which to some degree was over exaggerated last year due to his gaudy sack stats, but the level at which he is now playing; he’s not just a very good DE but probably the best all-round DE in the NFL. In the games viewed he’s picked up 3 sacks, 6 hits and 12 pressures placing him 3rd amongst rushers but is also top of our grading tables when playing the run. The other thing that stands for Williams is the fact he’s rarely off the field. In the games above he only missed 2, 5, 2 and 5 plays respectively.

Indianapolis (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Chi, W2 @ Min, W7 @ GB and W11 vs. Hou)
According to NFL.com DT, Keyunta Dawson has 37 solo tackles, 11 in the four games we’ve analyzed and that’s more than twice as many as we give him. Frankly I don’t believe the 37 either because from what we’ve seen Dawson struggles to get his 254lb frame past a FB never mind an offensive lineman. In the Packers game Daryn Colledge, who’s had an in and out season, completely destroyed him pushing him around with ease. He’s average rushing the QB with 3 pressures which would be OK if he was a rush specialist which he isn’t the case.
Keyunta Dawson isn’t the only reason the Colts are struggling to stop the run but he’s a key contributor and our worst graded person vs. the run in three of the four games above.

Jacksonville (Games analyzed: W1 @ Ten, W2 vs. Buf, W4 vs. Hou and W11 vs. Ten)
When the Jaguars took TE, Marcedes Lewis in the first round in 2006 I’m sure their primary goal was not to find a blocking TE. It’s exaggerating slightly, but at the moment that’s what they’ve got; a guy who can push a LB around and control a DE but also one who struggles to get open and when he does frequently drops the ball. That’s not to say Lewis is a dominating blocker, just that he’s good in that regard and can be relied on when necessary to help in the running game. When David Garrard throws it’s not even as if Lewis is kept in that often to block (which given the state of Jacksonville’s OL is a surprise) as on 88% of passing plays he goes out into a pattern. On the occasions he does stay on the line he’s been reasonably effective although he did give up a delayed hit to Kyle Vanden Bosch in W1.
I realise that yardage wise we’ve viewed some of Lewis’s worst performances but in those, catching just over 40% of the balls thrown your way and dropping 33% of them isn’t at all good. At least Marcedes is in that diminishing breed of TE’s who can block when required so if he does turn things around he could probably move into the elite at his position.

Kansas City (Games analyzed: W1 @ NE, W2 vs. Oak and W7 vs. Ten)
After a bright start to the 2007 season, Napoleon Harris played his way out of the MLB role in KC and Pat Thomas took over by default. Make no mistake, Thomas did not win this job on the basis of performance; Harris lost it. The problems inherent in this type of decision are now manifest as until his injury Thomas has been nothing short of awful. Whilst understanding the apparent youth first “policy” in Kansas City, it’s to the point where even the insertion of journeyman back-up Rocky Boiman has looked like a major upgrade.
Why has Thomas been so poor? Firstly he’s got not so much as a pressure while blitzing. Granted this is from a limited number of rushes (14) but even Harris picked up a sack, a hit and a pressure in the games we saw last year. This in itself though would not be so much of a problem if his pass coverage or run defense were adequate. Whilst his coverage is below average (biting on too many play action fakes and leaving his TE open) his run defense has been uniformly poor as interior lineman at the second level eat him up. Being on the field for every snap doesn’t help either and you wonder as to if using Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards in the nickel package may be a better use of resources.
Miami (Games analyzed: W1 vs. NYJ, W2 @ Arz, W7 vs. Bal and W9 @ Den)
Last year there was a Pro Bowl place for Joe Thomas when Jason Peters withdrew through injury (Thomas played much better in 2007 than Peters did anyway) which was driven by a combination of Joe’s performance but also Cleveland’s success. If LT, Jake Long is selected this year it would be nice to believe it would be based purely on his ability as, from what we’ve seen to date, that’s exactly what he deserves.
Ironically, coming out of college, the perceived issue with Long was his pass protection but so far that’s been his clear strength. He has given up 2 sacks (to Bert Berry and Elvis Dumervil) and two pressures but at an average of 43 drop-backs per game those numbers are exceptional and rank him 1st in our pass block rankings. If anyone thinks he’s had a lot of help then also consider the TE on his side has only stayed in to block 2,3,4 and 0 times (about 5%) with the 4 coming against the Ravens.
His run-blocking so far has been average with particular problems arising against the faster DEs or OLBs but given the assumed priority for a LT, I’m sure that’s not worrying the Dolphins unduly just at the moment.

N.Y. Jets (Games analyzed: W1 @ Mia, W2 vs. NE, W9 @ Buf and W10 vs. StL)
If we were picking an AFC Pro Bowl squad now it would be a complete change at the CB position with Nnamdi Asomugha, Jabari Greer, Eric Wright and Darrelle Revis vying for the three places. 2007 saw Darrelle make a promising start to his pro career in which good coverage skills was let down by penalties and sub-par tackling. However, to date, his sophomore year has seen considerable improvement as, the week 2 game against New England aside, he’s been excellent. Even then, 4 completions in the 5 attempts into his coverage with 57 yards given up (47 YAC) and a pass defensed is a performance with which many CB’s would be happy.
His run defence now looks solid and we’ve not seen him give up a penalty or miss a tackle so, given the trend continues, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a first trip to Hawaii…… unless of course Champ Bailey hijacks his seat.

New England (Games analyzed: W1 vs. KC, W2 @ NYJ, W5 @ SF and W8 vs. StL)
When DE, Richard Seymour came back from injury last year he was a long way from his best. In the 12 games he played after returning in W8 he picked up only 2 sacks, 8 hits and 8 pressures and, up until his excellent Super Bowl display, was pushed around in the running game like a rookie. If early signs are to be believed Richard looks back near the top of the game, if not his absolute peak.
In 4 games viewed he’s already got 2 sacks, 4 hits and 4 pressures and hasn’t had a bad game in run defense.
Other than the San Francisco game where Bill Belichick decided to employ some frankly bizarre 2-3-6 formations that rotated Jarvis Green, Pierre Woods and Mike Wright as the DLs he’s averaged 85% of the Patriots defensive snaps and that too is a sign that things on the DL at least are back to normal.

**UKRavenStockers** · 11-27-2008, 05:29 AM

Oakland (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Den, W2 @ KC, W3 @ Buf, W10 vs. Car)
What is it about Oakland that can turn great players into poor ones (Randy Moss anyone) and average ones into someone so poor you’ll pay them $1 million dollars a game before dumping them mid-season (DeAngelo Hall take a bow)?
Safety, Gibril Wilson forms another category which is taking a perfectly good player and making him well below average which, particularly given the money in question (6 years $39M, $16M guaranteed) clearly wasn’t their idea of fun.
In 2007 Wilson was a consistent player who, when required, did a decent job of blitzing, was good in coverage and, particularly towards the end of the season, made a fine fist of playing the run. He had a great Super Bowl when the Giants brought pressure from every conceivable angle and on 6 rushes he picked up a hit and a pressure. The other difference in the Super Bowl was the amount of time the Giants had Wilson up in the box; about 33% of his time compared to only 10% in the rest of the playoffs. I’m not sure if Oakland and overplayed their hand because when we’ve seen him play he spends the majority of his time close to the line (about 50% although this was at 40% in W10) and blitzes often.
So far this season, based on limited data, his performance correlates directly to the amount of time spent in the box, the less the better, so perhaps that’s how Oakland manage it.

Pittsburgh (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Hou, W4 vs. Bal, W8 vs. NYG and W11 vs. SD)
Last year ROLB, James Harrison went to the Pro Bowl on the back of some huge performances in nationally televised games and whilst overall it’s arguable if he was worth that the fact that his rush skills were inconsistent isn’t. To go with his big days he also had some average ones and against the Patriots in Week 14 he was very poor indeed. In 9 games we analyzed last year he was held to two pressures or less in 4. Add to this the fact that when he dropped in coverage he really shouldn’t have bothered (75% of passes completed in his area) and he still had a lot to work on.
I’m not sure it’s time to say mission accomplished because his run defense has declined a little but as a pass rusher and in coverage he’s far more consistent. In the list above he’s averaging nearly 2 sacks, 1 hit and 3 pressures per game and hasn’t given up a single completion.
If that continues I’m sure there will be very few people arguing his inclusion in the All-Pro line up never mind the Pro Bowl.

San Diego (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Car, W2 @ Den, W8 @ NO and W11 @ Pit)
Talking of players last year whose stats got them recognition which perhaps their overall play didn’t deserve, our collective mind turned next to CB, Antonio Cromartie. Sure it’s nice to see lots of interceptions but its better when they’re balanced by quality of base coverage and sound run defense. To be honest my main knock last season on Cromartie was his lack of starts as his coverage stats were excellent. However, there was definitely an underlying element of giving up too many first downs too easily in the completions he did give up.
Unfortunately unlike Harrison, Cromartie has regressed quite markedly and this time the stats are quite stark. In 2007 in 11 games we had graded, Antonio gave up 270 yards, 1 TD and 9 interceptions with a rating of just 44.8 (This is a reverse of the NFL QB rating where low is good). This year in the 4 games mentioned he’s given up 252 and 2 TD’s, no interceptions and has a rating of 132.6. His run defence has improved slightly on last year to the point he’s now average but due to his tall, skinny build he’ll have too work much harder than simply bending over and putting out his arms if he wants to be an effective tackler.

Tennessee (Games analyzed: W1 vs. Jac, W2 @ Cin, W4 vs. Min, W7 @ KC and W11 @ Jac)
When we first graded FB, Ahmard Hall in 2006 we were massively impressed by the “Big Marine” as he’s known by his teammates due to his time spent before joining the Longhorns with the army in Afghanistan. The whole thing was just too good to be true; the FA pick-up with every character reference you could ever want, coming in blocking like a truck, catching smoothly out of the back-field, the football analysts dream sleeper.
In 2007 we kept our eye on him but whilst having a good season it wasn’t great and we patiently waited for him to mature into a more consistent performer. Some will look at Tennessee and the yards White and Johnson are generating and guess that the FB is playing well but much to our chagrin it’s simply not true.
So far we’ve graded 5 games and he’s still to block well once despite playing on 53%, 69%, 47%, 68% and 22% of the offensive snaps respectively (the Titans got behind against the Jaguars in W11 and had to throw). Against the Vikings and in particular the Bengals he was poor. We’re not about to tell you that Rashad Jeanty is a bad player because he’s not but if Ahmard Hall’s going to be anywhere near the player he wants, he’s not going to get there by having it handed to him by Jeanty which is exactly what happened in Week 2 as time after time Hall was stood up or beaten by the Bengal LB.
We’re sure he’s a great player to have in the locker room but until he starts leading by example on the field as well we’ll have to go back to his rookie year to find our All-Pro FB.