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Thread: Some fun Sack Stats
12-20-2006, 09:17 PM #1Pro Bowl Russell Street Raven
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- Oct 2006
Some fun Sack Stats
With the Ravens having their best ever sack year, what better time to do some analysis. I've applied the same "by play on the field" methodology that you may have seen in my D-Line posts. In the format (Sacks, Pass Plays, % sacks):
Bannan: (1, 70, 1.4)
Cody: (3, 9, 33.3)
Edwards: (3, 39, 7.7)
Franklin: (3, 66, 4.5)
Gregg: (22, 242, 9.1)
Johnson: (31, 256, 12.1)
Ngata: (18, 162, 11.1)
Pryce: (45, 388, 11.6)
Stills: (2, 23, 8.7)
Suggs: (51, 457, 11.2)
Team: (52, 484, 10.7)
Now obviously these are somewhat context dependent, even when we are only evaluating pass plays. For example, the Ravens may well bring more pressure on 3rd down (I did not check) when Johnson is typically in. That being said, I think there is some interesting info here.
1. I had been observing that the Ravens backup DT's were all pretty useless in the pass rush, and I'd say this is strong evidence. Bannan, Edwards, and Franklin all have very poor sack %'s. Bannan's total was unexpected. By observation, I would have said he had contributed a little something in pass defense, but that's why we look at the numbers.
2. Damn I am sorry to see Cody go on IR today, it would have been really interesting to see if this guy is for real. His numbers from the Falcons game were absurdly good, but I think there is enough evidence from the 15 snaps (1 penalty) he played that the Ravens were making a big mistake to deactivate him for Edwards.
3. Kelly Gregg has 3 sacks, including the eye-popper on Mike Vick, but there is no evidence he's helping the folks around him get more sacks. As I've said elsewhere, Ngata's plays are basically a subset of Gregg's. If we analyze theeffectiveness of the Ngataless Gregg by subtracting Ngata's totals from Gregg's, we get a player with 4 sacks on 80 passing plays (5% ). That's not good.
4. Ngata's 11.1% sack rate is higher than the team average, and much better than I would have expected for a guy with 0 sacks personally. Furthermore, he does not play 3rd down generally (3rd downs represent less than 9% of his plays, but about 22% of the team's plays). I have to conclude he's having an impact on the pass rush merely by absorbing 2 blocks. That was the case in the 9 sacks I posted on vs. Pittsburgh.
5. The Ravens only managed to sack the QB 1 time without Suggs in the game in 37 passing plays (2.7%). Imagine if Suggs were having a really good sack year.
6. Even with some incremental 3rd down pressure, I think Johnson by observation only is having a great pass rush year. He is the most used Zone cover decoy after AD. moreover, when he drops to zone, he does a far better job of selling the fake. Vs. Pitt he had the single best pass rush decoy I have seen when he took a first step between 2 Pitt linemen, pushed off into zone as they both went for him, while a jailbreak dominoed along the line. On some of the ZC's I have recorded for AD, he is really just covering the TE or a back. Johnson never seems to have a man-to-man assignment, so he's free to get his hands up on the lineman. Never having played DL, I am guessing that push off he gets not only distracts the O-Lineman, it also helps him get back into coverage faster.
6. I don't have passing plays by down (Gonna work on getting that), but the Ravens sacks have been 19 on 1st down, 11 on 2nd, 21 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.
12-21-2006, 07:13 AM #2
Re: Some fun Sack Stats
hard to quantify a group dynamic, but these numbers sure clarify things. somebody like Suggs might be chasing the qb into another d player who actually gets the 'credit'. part of the low dt numbers might be as they are being pulled for pass rushers / nickelback on 3rd & long.
12-23-2006, 10:10 PM #3
Re: Some fun Sack Stats
I think a lot of it has to do with the complicated nature of the sceme they run, which limits Suggs a bit. He drops into coverage far more often than other players, and I think a big part of his "merely solid" numbers (which in reality they're very good) is the fact that there are so many guys having a great pass rushing year that there are others getting to the QB first.
We've got four guys with eight sacks or more.
Those four are all top 21 in the NFL in sack totals. No one else has more than two, though SD has three in the top 30 (two in the top 7).
We're second in the NFL in total sacks at 52, SD first at 54, and everyone else at 46 and below (only two others over 40).
Our sacks per play are the best in the league (6.35% vs. 6.32% SD vs. 5.25% for #3)
That's simply amazing. We're having an incredible season getting to the QB, and even though Suggs has "only" 8 sacks, he's having a terrific season putting tons of pressure on QBs and eating blocks that free other guys to get there.
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