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  1. #1

    Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys



    I know the Film Study Guy on this site follows Football Outsiders, but I haven't seen too many people discussing their predictions on this site. (I'm sure somebody has, but I just haven't come across the discussion.) I suggest that you start b/c Football Outsiders are predicting that the Ravens will make the playoffs with a 9-7 record this year.

    For those of you who don't know, Football Outsiders are to football what Bill James is to baseball. In other words, they crunch numbers and from them, make predictions about teams and individual players. They have come up with, for example, the Curse of the 370 Carries theory, which says that RBs who carry the ball more than 370 times in a season are usually no more good (or not good for a couple of years b/c of the beating that comes with carrying the ball so much). See Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander.

    Football Outsiders predict that the Ravens will win with a 9-7 record mainly because they have an easier schedule than the Steelers. The Ravens play the Dolphins and Raiders, while the Steelers play the Pats and Chargers.

    If you go to ESPN's homepage, look under "Bill Simmons" picture, and click on his "BS Report" to hear some of their NFL predictions this year, including what they had to say about the Ravens.




  2. Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    So was this prediction of theirs made prior to or after the major wave of injurys we sustained as well as the QB outcome?

    I heard one of those guys on Haneys show awhile back.
    If nothing else, the guy sounded like he knew what he was talking about and was entertaining.
    Will Die A Ravens Fan!!




  3. #3

    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    You guys misunderstood. yes, they will go the the playoffs, but as a field trip to watch the teams that will actually be participating. I tease of course. While it would be nice, I am hoping for a record just above 500. Anything else is just a bonus.
    I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman!




  4. #4
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    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Didn't they publish that in Pro Football Prospectous 2008.

    Yeah they made that prediction before the current QB fiasco.
    "I got this." - Justin Tucker




  5. #5

    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Half the teams that made it the year before don't make it back. The SB loser only makes the playoffs half the time.

    There will be at least 2 teams that go from worst to fisrt in 4 team divisions, it happens all the time.

    The Ravens not only get a softer schedlue, they got to pick a lot higher in the draft than normal. They flipped the high picks for multiple picks around the level they are used to picking.

    The Ravens have a long history of finding impact rookies. I expect Flacco and Rice to make a difference. Barnes, Grubbs, Yanda, Gaither, Landry and McClain are about to become well known around the NFL. Ray Lewis and Trevor Pryce are going to be a little faster than they expected, and Nagta, Gregg, Suggs, Scott, Jason Brown, McGahee, Heap, Mason and Wilcox are established pros in the prime years of production.

    I have no idea what to expect from the Qb position, but he should have decent protection, weapons and a running game and defense to bring him along. That and a a couple of coaches who seem to know what works in the modern NFL game plans. Special teams, special teams, special teams.

    I sip heavy on the concord grapes, but i see a possible special team coming together. Imagine how sweet it would be if a rookie HC and QB could rally the Ravens to just the division championship. If McCallister, Rolle and Washington can play the way they used to, the Ravens will be a playoff team, even if Boller is the QB.




  6. #6
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    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    I can see a scenario where the Ravens go 9-7, but it would take Flacco having a Derek Anderson-type year and everything else falling into place.

    But no AFC team is going to make the playoffs at 9-7 unless they win their division.


    WORLD CHAMPIONS 2000 * 2012




  7. #7

    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Yes, they did publish it in the Football Prospectus 2008, but they recently said it again, with full knowledge that Flacco is starting, in the interview with ESPN's Bill Simmons.

    Plus, I went to the book signing Football Outsiders had at Hopkins book store. I specifically asked the Andy Schatz does it matter who starts--Flacco, Boller, or Smith--and it said that it didn't. He also said that the pass rush should help out the old secondary and that they take into account injuries to a degree in their analysis.

    As much as I like reading their theories, they are wrong a fair amount. They predicted that Kevin Jones would have a great year during his (I believe) second year with the Lions. He never has had a decent year.

    It's just something interesting to read. Because they correctly predicted that the Packers would make the playoffs last year when many people didn't, they could be right again. Here's hoping!




  8. #8

    Exclamation Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Quote Originally Posted by 12jg34 View Post
    Yes, they did publish it in the Football Prospectus 2008, but they recently said it again, with full knowledge that Flacco is starting, in the interview with ESPN's Bill Simmons.

    Plus, I went to the book signing Football Outsiders had at Hopkins book store. I specifically asked the Andy Schatz does it matter who starts--Flacco, Boller, or Smith--and it said that it didn't. He also said that the pass rush should help out the old secondary and that they take into account injuries to a degree in their analysis.

    As much as I like reading their theories, they are wrong a fair amount. They predicted that Kevin Jones would have a great year during his (I believe) second year with the Lions. He never has had a decent year.

    It's just something interesting to read. Because they correctly predicted that the Packers would make the playoffs last year when many people didn't, they could be right again. Here's hoping!
    Kevin Jones was a great prospect but injuries took him down. He was a good prediction, but any one on the Lions is suspect to begin with and they have a lot of turf monster injuries.

    Florio of PFT.com is sticking with his prediction of the Ravens making it to the top of the AFC N. He seems a little less confident, but the schedule advantage and the O and D line concerns in the Burgh and coverage issues in Clown town should keep the Ravens in contention while we develop a QB.




  9. #9
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    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Kevin Jones was a top-5 fantasy back when he got hurt last year. He was good up until he got hurt in his first year with Martz too.
    O's, Stroh's and Nappy Ho's




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    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    I need some of what you guys are drinking (or smoking!)




  11. #11

    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Quote Originally Posted by 4G63 View Post
    I need some of what you guys are drinking (or smoking!)
    It sounds a little prple hazy, but it is far from crazy.

    The Ravens were the 2 seed 2 years ago. it is not out of the question that they could win 9 or 10 games this year. The other teams on the schedule may have they type of injury issues they faced last year and change everything.

    No team in the NFL is clearly better than the Ravens if you take out the starting QB.




  12. #12
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    Re: Ravens to Make Playoffs, says stat guys

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremiah W View Post
    The Ravens were the 2 seed 2 years ago. it is not out of the question that they could win 9 or 10 games this year. The other teams on the schedule may have they type of injury issues they faced last year and change everything.

    No team in the NFL is clearly better than the Ravens if you take out the starting QB.
    Just when I think you're coming back down to reality, you go and say something like this.

    Find me the 9 wins on our schedule when we're basically the same team from last year, only a new head coach, a banged up O line and a VERY green starting QB.

    I'll wait.

    None of the teams on the schedule have the injuries we do .... not one. I can name 2 teams in the divison, let alone the NFL, that are better then we are right now.

    Again, I admire your hope but this is so far out of reality. Save this post -- I will eat my words if I am wrong, but I dont think I am.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




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