Question About Possible Cap Purge In Two Years

[PurpleRulz]

When Dick Cass spilled the beans about us having a two year window, he did mention that the cap purge will not be the likes of the 2002 cap purge. Somehow, we got carried away with this "revelation" and just assume that EVERY veteran will be gone in two seasons.

I am sure there will be some losses, but we won't lose every veteran in two seasons. My point/question is, which vets do you think will still be around and which will be gone after these two seasons?


Here is my projected core: Heap, Reed, Cody, CMAC, Clayton, Williams, Ngata, Bart, Brown, and Chester.


Here is who I think will stay and who will be gone in two seasons:

Staying
1. Steve McNair- He says that he has 3 to 4 seasons (though he's taking things year to year). That is long enough for us to draft a QB next year and for that QB to sit under McNair for two seasons.

2. Derrick Mason- He may have a reduced role, but he is the heart and soul of our offense. Because he started later in his career, Mason could have about 3 to 4 seasons left. He could scale back to 3rd WR while Spidey and Clayton take the 1 and 2 helm. Mason may restructure down to reflect such a demotion.

3. Terrell Suggs- He'll get a new deal next year and join Heap and Reed as building blocks.

4. Adalius Thomas- I think we'll work hard to re-sign this guy. We may succeed or fail, but I am betting that we will succeed. He too will get a new deal.

Players leaving

1. Ray Lewis-Retirement. (A lot of money freed here)
2. JO- retirement and could happen after this season. (A lot of money freed here)
3. Rolle- I don't know if his body will hold up after two years.
4. Jamal Lewis- I think he will move on, if he does not restructure after this season.
5. Kelly Gregg
6. Matt Stover- Retirement

[RavenScallywag]

Players leaving

1. Ray Lewis-Retirement. (A lot of money freed here)
2. JO- retirement and could happen after this season. (A lot of money freed here)
3. Rolle- I don't know if his body will hold up after two years.
4. Jamal Lewis- I think he will move on, if he does not restructure after this season.
5. Kelly Gregg
6. Matt Stover- Retirement

Something tells me Ray might not retire by then, but we may face facts and let him walk. JO seems likely, so does Rolle. Jamal might restructure if he has a big year this year and stay. Gregg should be moving on, if not Bannan.

Stover actually was quoted as saying he'd at least play out the remaining 3-4 years on his contract, but who knows.

I think AD might be gone, but only because we may have found our future LB corps lineup...Bart Scott, Mike Smith, and Dan Cody. I think we'd re-sign him for a year or two, but in the cap purge, he may be a guy we need to let go of.

Mulitalo may also be gone in that purge...he's getting up there and he's starting to decline. Another suprise one might be CMac. He's turning a corner, but he's certainly expensive. If Rolle goes, he stays to provide some stability.

[B-more Ravor]

I think it's fair to say that Ray, Ogden, Mulitalo and Stover will be released or will retire when/if this does occur. The Ravens will need the cap space provided by those departures to maintain the team. Jamal, McNair, Rolle, Mason and Gregg are certainly also possibilities.

Personally, I don't see this like the 2002 purge because several of the guys let go then - Adams, Sharper, Jermaine, Grbac - were still in their prime ( yes, even Grbac). This purge would be more about clearing out the high priced older guys - and in a lot of case, it will actually free up cap space.

Of course, just how bad it is will also depend on how well the Ravens draft between now and then and how the remaining players develop. The fortunate thing for the Ravens in 2002 was that they had a great draft class in 2001 (Heap, Baxter, Rabach, Hartwell, Maese) that was basically red-shirted and then followed that up with another very good class in 2002 (Reed, Weaver, Zastudil, Jones, Taylor, Williams, Brightful). They also signed some great UDFAs in Scott, Demps and Kemo. All of those guys made solid contributions to the 2002 team.

[PurpleRulz]

"Jamal, McNair, Rolle, Mason and Gregg are certainly also possibilities. "


Here are the two, in bold, that I want to talk about.

McNair:

I look at QBs such as Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Mark Brunell whom are all well over 30 and in the "November" of their careers. These guys are still good enough to keep their ballclub competitive while at the same time providing mentorship (if that's a word) to a young QB of the future candidate.

In my opinion, if McNair shows that he has 3 to 4 years of football left, they should be spent here. He should not be a cap casualty in two seasons, and may not need to be one.

I figure that in the 2007 draft, we are selecting our next "QB of the future" (In rounds one or two, hopefully). McNair can stick around for 2007 and 2008 seasons to groom said QB. What a great mentor in McNair. McNair, at that point (the 2009 season) could backup that QB.

Mason:

I view Mason as a Keenan McCardell or Jimmy Smith type, in terms of veteran leadership. Follow me.

Those guys mentioned are (in Smith's case was) in the mid to upper 30s and not necessarily dependent opon to be the featured receiver. We have two guys in Mark Clayton and Demetrius "Spidey" Williams who could represent the future one/two combo at WR for us. Derrick Mason at that point will probably be good enough to still play as the 3rd receiver. We could restructure Mason's deal in 2009 to reflect his move to 3rd string.

I know a lot of this is based on the assumption of future actions, and the assumption that Mason and McNair will have accepted that they are no longer starters in 3 years.

My point is that these guys are now cornerstones of our offense and could provide that aged leadership for us over the next three to four season. I also think these guys should retire as Ravens, and aid in ensuring our effective play on offense for more than these next two or three years.

In short, when that cap gods come a callin, McNair and Mason should not be on that list.

My two cents.

[Bez513]

I think AD might be gone

I hope not. He's a great player and his versitility would be missed. They need to sign him to an extension.

[RavenScallywag]

I'm taking a wait and see approach on McNair for two reasons...

#1 - If the injury big bites, McNair is a "load up for a SB run" guy, not a long haul guy. His injuries would force us to keep giving our #2 guy a lot of reps and if we can grab a healthier guy, it would make more sense for continuity

#2 - While he is the best QB we've had here since...maybe ever...he should be the hold over while we scour draft classes and find ourselves a long term guy we can groom. We haven't been too good at grooming long term guys, but we need to apply our draft success at LB and Defense to our QB position.

If he stays relativley healthy, performs well, and we can't find a long term guy in two years, then we should keep him. Otherwise, it might be a good time to move on.

[B-more Ravor]

I think it will all depend on what happens between now and then. If we win a SB, then it may be that a lot of those guys are ready to retire. If not, it may mean that the Ravens will have to decide whether to keep them around or cut them loose.

As far as Mason and McNair go, the main factor in that decision will probably come down to money as much as it will their production. Mason is set to count $4.4M against the cap in 2008 and 2009. McNair will count $6.4M in 2008 and $8.4M in 2009. If Mason is still a productive No. 1/2, then $4.4M isn't a bad deal. I could see them holding onto a healthy, productive McNair in 2008, since a $6.4M cap number isn't too bad for a starting QB (but again, if he is healthy and productive), but not in 2009 when he hits $8.4M.

[RavenScallywag]

also, I don't WANT AD to go, but with the way he's playing, he may become too expensive to keep around, especially if Cody and Scott keep excelling at OLB.

[Ravenatic20]

I think it's safe, yet sad to say this will be AD's last year with us. Cody will be his replacement.

[jonboy79]

I agree with Ravor that what they do in these two years both colletively and individually will determine this but...

I think we extend Suggs this offseason and make him the highest paid DE in football. That whacks AD. I have been a vocal Ray hater all offseason, my voice is quieting down. He is heere busting his balls sitting back. The media overhyped him this offseason. If e keeps this up, I may even consider extending him after next season. JO, MULE and Stover will retire within the two years. Jamal looked strong last weekm but I doubt he's even here next year. I just don't see 1500+ yds that would make me want to keep him. One corner is likely to need to go, McNair and Mason could slide into complimentary roles.

These last two drafts seem Very, Very good at this point. They better be.

[PurpleRulz]

Here's an excellent response courtesy of Ian, a board member from another site.

I've been very skeptical that there will be a cap purge necessary after two years. I believe that Cass is more accurately saying that there's a two year window for the old guard on the team to win. Here are my cap numbers for everyone currently under contract in 2008:

Lewis, Jamal $11,000,000
McAlister, Chris $10,903,749
Ogden, Jonathan $10,195,745
Lewis, Ray $9,428,571
McNair, Steve $6,450,000
Rolle, Samari $6,100,000
Scott, Bart $5,567,000
Heap, Todd $5,200,000
Pryce, Trevor $5,000,000
Mason, Derrick $4,400,000
Reed, Ed $3,405,000
Mulitalo, Edwin $2,850,428
Flynn, Mike $2,800,000
Anderson, Mike $2,300,000
Bannan, Justin $2,250,000
Gregg, Kelly $2,100,000
Ngata, Haloti $1,977,500
Clayton, Mark $1,915,000
Stover, Matt $1,480,000
Wilcox, Daniel $1,095,000
Stills, Gary $943,333
Edwards, Dwan $930,000
Cody, Dan $876,666
Ivy, Corey $826,666
Terry, Adam $788,125
Chester, Chris $774,250
Pittman, David $608,333
Williams, Demetrius $559,166
Daniels, P.J. $538,666
Landry, Dawan $488,000
Sypniewski, Quinn $480,333
Koch, Sam $463,163
Martin, Derrick $461,650
LaCasse, Ryan $459,400

That's 34 players at a total cap cost of $105,615,744. A few of those numbers are projections based on draft position, and some of the rookie deals may be subject to escalators, but that should be in the ballpark. Justin Green and Jason Brown will both be in their RFA years, with tags that could range between under a million or up to $3 million per. Figure that two more years of rookie signings will add about another $9 million.

Obviously, not all of those players will be on the roster in 2008. If Jamal Lewis is still around, you can be damn sure that it won[t be at $11 million. Ray Lewis, Ogden, McAlister, Rolle, Mason, Pryce, McNair, Anderson, and Mulitalo are all question marks. If Flynn is still around, half of you will probably have killed yourselves. Obviously, other players will be signed in free agency over the next couple of years, too.

So, it looks to me like they'll probably be tight against a cap that should conservatively be around $112 million (or could be higher), but not in any dire straits. Because they've got big money tied up in a relatively few players, they should be able to free up quite a bit with just a few moves. The question will be more whether the guys with huge cap hits are worth the money being paid.

[Bez513]

I wish I could punt a football for $463,163!