This is a tidbit from an article in the Baltimore Sun today. I thought it was very informative and made a lot of sense. Let me know what yall think. Yes, I said yall as any native Marylander should.

"As debate on the future merits of Vince Young and Matt Leinart unfolded two years ago, David Lewin, himself a Division III quarterback at Macalester College, sought more objective answers about the position.

Lewin studied quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds and found that two college statistics - games started and completion percentage - correlated strongly with pro success. He wasn't sure why at first.

But he figured starts were significant because scouts are more likely to be right about a player they've watched for four years than one they've inspected for two. Completion percentage, he decided, was the best measure of a quarterback's ability to execute a system efficiently.

Lewin thinks his system might overrate players from exotic offenses or those who attempt few passes. But he said he's corresponded with an NFL team that studied the same issue and reached similar conclusions.

The method would have red-flagged players such as Akili Smith and Leaf, who didn't start many games, and Boller, who wasn't accurate in college. (His completion percentage in 42 games at California was .478.)

"In the modern era, there has never been a successful NFL quarterback with a college completion percentage that low," Lewin wrote of the Ravens' quarterback in Pro Football Prospectus 2006.

This year, he's less high on Ryan than many, because Ryan started for 2 1/2 seasons.

He thinks Michigan's Chad Henne, who started for four years, and Louisville's Brian Brohm, a supremely accurate passer, are safer bets, though they lack Ryan's athletic upside.

"Brohm was the presumptive No. 1 pick after last year and then he went out and had his best collegiate season," Lewin said. "So it's puzzling to me that his stock has dropped, basically because his team couldn't stop anybody."

Kiper might employ different methods than Lewin, but he's also quite fond of the second- and third-tier quarterback options.

"This might be a year," the draft expert said, "when you can wait and hope to catch lightning in the bottle."

Any thoughts?