QB Evaluation

[the_scarecrow3]

This is a tidbit from an article in the Baltimore Sun today. I thought it was very informative and made a lot of sense. Let me know what yall think. Yes, I said yall as any native Marylander should.

"As debate on the future merits of Vince Young and Matt Leinart unfolded two years ago, David Lewin, himself a Division III quarterback at Macalester College, sought more objective answers about the position.

Lewin studied quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds and found that two college statistics - games started and completion percentage - correlated strongly with pro success. He wasn't sure why at first.

But he figured starts were significant because scouts are more likely to be right about a player they've watched for four years than one they've inspected for two. Completion percentage, he decided, was the best measure of a quarterback's ability to execute a system efficiently.

Lewin thinks his system might overrate players from exotic offenses or those who attempt few passes. But he said he's corresponded with an NFL team that studied the same issue and reached similar conclusions.

The method would have red-flagged players such as Akili Smith and Leaf, who didn't start many games, and Boller, who wasn't accurate in college. (His completion percentage in 42 games at California was .478.)

"In the modern era, there has never been a successful NFL quarterback with a college completion percentage that low," Lewin wrote of the Ravens' quarterback in Pro Football Prospectus 2006.

This year, he's less high on Ryan than many, because Ryan started for 2 1/2 seasons.

He thinks Michigan's Chad Henne, who started for four years, and Louisville's Brian Brohm, a supremely accurate passer, are safer bets, though they lack Ryan's athletic upside.

"Brohm was the presumptive No. 1 pick after last year and then he went out and had his best collegiate season," Lewin said. "So it's puzzling to me that his stock has dropped, basically because his team couldn't stop anybody."

Kiper might employ different methods than Lewin, but he's also quite fond of the second- and third-tier quarterback options.

"This might be a year," the draft expert said, "when you can wait and hope to catch lightning in the bottle."

Any thoughts?

[jonboy79]

The Raven's are said to consider mostly 4 stats, which they kept under wraps, I wouldn't be surprised if these were two of them.

That said, this philosophy would drive home the chances that Derek Anderson will not continue his success, as he had a lwo pct in college, and if i remember correctly didn't start many games either.

[purplepoe]

Im sorry, but you must look at the system and receiving corps and give those areas just as much weight when determining who you will take.

I bet Danny Wuerfful and every Texas Tech QB over the past decade fit this guys criteria very well.

PP

[the_scarecrow3]

Im sorry, but you must look at the system and receiving corps and give those areas just as much weight when determining who you will take.

I think I'm going to have to somewhat disagree with that statement for a number of reasons. First, though certain offensive schemes and/or systems give certain QB's an advantage in college that may not translate into pro success, it's not fair to say that because a QB came from a system that none of his skills/abilities are transferable.

Case and point: Colt Brennan.

There are those who would say that the lopsided debacle that was the Sugar Bowl proved that Colt Brennan was overrated and couldn't perform against elite talent. I, on the other hand, would have to argue that it was the team around him that made his performance piss poor, as opposed to his own ability. Colt completed over 70% of his passes for the three years he started in Hawaii. If you watch highlights on him, you would have to agree that the system wasn't the one thowing those passes. Yes, the system helps, but the QB is either accurate or he's not. His offensive line was not up to the task of protecting him from the onslaught of Georgia's defensive line.

Along the same lines, one could argue that because Colt's team was filled with 2nd tier receivers that it's possible his numbers would be far better with elite talent at the WR position. If he puts the ball on the money, and his receiver drops the ball, it counts against his stats even when it's not his fault.

So yes, it's possible that a certain system can inflate a QB's stats, but when it's all said and done, he has to make the pass. I think if given the right opportunity, someone like Colt would translate into a pretty good pro.

[purplepoe]

I think I'm going to have to somewhat disagree with that statement for a number of reasons. First, though certain offensive schemes and/or systems give certain QB's an advantage in college that may not translate into pro success, it's not fair to say that because a QB came from a system that none of his skills/abilities are transferable.

Case and point: Colt Brennan.

There are those who would say that the lopsided debacle that was the Sugar Bowl proved that Colt Brennan was overrated and couldn't perform against elite talent. I, on the other hand, would have to argue that it was the team around him that made his performance piss poor, as opposed to his own ability. Colt completed over 70% of his passes for the three years he started in Hawaii. If you watch highlights on him, you would have to agree that the system wasn't the one thowing those passes. Yes, the system helps, but the QB is either accurate or he's not. His offensive line was not up to the task of protecting him from the onslaught of Georgia's defensive line.

Along the same lines, one could argue that because Colt's team was filled with 2nd tier receivers that it's possible his numbers would be far better with elite talent at the WR position. If he puts the ball on the money, and his receiver drops the ball, it counts against his stats even when it's not his fault.

So yes, it's possible that a certain system can inflate a QB's stats, but when it's all said and done, he has to make the pass. I think if given the right opportunity, someone like Colt would translate into a pretty good pro.

Like I said. Look at Danny Wuerfulll or the line of Texas Tech QBs.

All started tons of games and I would bet were close to 70%.

It's all about the individual.

Polian and Reese were both quoted in last weeks ESPN the magazine about the draft.

It's a crap shoot for. Think about all the studies and homework that goes on. All the scouting. All the money that teams pay picks.

They leave no stone unturned. And yet when those 2 GMs basically say you make a pick and pray you are right half the time, it should signal to us all that all of these studies and number crunching is worthless.

These are kids in their early twenties that teams basically take a gamble on. Sometimes the number hits, sometimes it doesn't.

Just look at a guy like Ryan Leaf. Hindsight says it was a horrid pick. Yet an NFL organization used the 2nd overall pick on him. And there were plenty of "experts" etc.... saying they would've taken him over Manning.

The NFL draft isn't a draft. It's a lottery and you hope your number hits.

PP

[Raveninwoodlawn]

College Run and Shoot QB's don't translate well.

That is a fact.

Does it mean none ever will...no.

But I challenge you to find one...one run and shoot QB who has had a productive NFL career.

David Klingler...Andre Ware...Timmy Chang...Kliff Klingsbury...they don't translate well.

At least Klingler and Ware had strong arm...Brennon has a sidearm flinging action with his arm. And it is a pretty mediocre at best arm.

[evade6317]

And let's not forget the "flash in the pan" Tedford lineage.

[factmeister]

I went to the pro football encyclopedia and found that no quarterback under 6'-5" since Kurt Warner who is listed at 6'-4" has won a superbowl.
The 2 most recent late round surprises were Tom Brady at 6'-5" and Derrick Anderson at 6'-6".Matt Hasselbeck also is tall.
Shorter Qbs such as Booty and Henne and Brohm and our own Kyle Boller are not the prototypically 6'5" SB qb winner.
Perhaps one day Drew Brees will win the big one.
However,I would rather take my chances on only working with 6-'5"or taller qbs.such as Ryan,Flacco and Ainge.
Perhaps, extremely athletic qbs such as Donavan McNabb who played well in the SB and Josh Johnson,who completely dominated the East-West Shrine bowl,will prove to be the exception.
Please feel free to poke holes in this theory.
Hwever if you go back in time,you need to adjust the height upwards to allow for the overall height increases.

[Merlin]

Well Flacco is 6 6" and has a completion percentage of 63%. Can't fake those stats. Sounds like there are different perspectives on his leadership and we'll see soon enough.

Looking forward to getting the Boller debates behind us -- just put him in the category of Leftwich, Akili, Alex Smith ; disappointing first rounders and get over it.

Bet some team picks him up on the cheap in 09 and he does well in a post-Billick offense -- not a franchise but a "Dilfer type" QB who stays around until his mid 30s.

[OriAl]

The only real problem Boller has had is lack of protection by his offensive line. Flacco will have the same problem, unless the line improves.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

The only real problem Boller has had is lack of protection by his offensive line.

Now THAT is funny.

You have to be Boller's long lost uncle or something.

Thankfully though, after this year, Boller will be gone and we won't have to talk about him anymore...on to Flacco.

[Mista T]

Thankfully though, after this year, Boller will be gone and we won't have to talk about him anymore....

Funny ...... that's the same tune the Boller haters were singing a year ago, after Smith - the next coming of the Messiah - was drafted. Surprise: Boller got extended instead of cut. Maybe Oz knows a little about how to run an NFL team.

Wouldn't it great if Boller had a break-out season under Cam's new offense, and we were faced with the same type QB "problem" facing the Browns?