Offseason Watch: Receivers

[Gabrosin]

I would guess somewhere in the middle of both those estimates. There's no chance it's as low as $3 million or as high as $10 million for the first few years. I think six or seven years is a safe assumption for the contract length, and I'm guessing the signing bonus would need to be significantly higher than my $18 million example... probably on the order of $30 million, since that's the sort of money he can expect to get over the next two years if he doesn't sign any sort of extension (and stays healthy). That's about $5-6 million in bonus money per year, plus <$1 million in veteran minimum salary for the first few before the "dummy" years in the back start raising the base salary numbers. BUT, keep in mind that the team can play with these numbers as well, by pushing money out of the signing bonus and into guaranteed option bonuses, roster bonuses, and likely to be earned incentives. Meaning that if we needed to squeeze him into the smallest possible number for the first year, then accept a significantly larger hit in years 2-4 and much larger numbers in years 5-7, we can make it happen... thus allowing him to get under contract now and then absorb some of the JO/McNair/Ray Lewis money when their contracts expire or are altered or are generally taken off the books. Remember, we're in pretty solid shape with the rest of our stars and young players for a couple years at least... Reed, Heap, McAlister, McGahee, and I think Gregg are all locked up for a while; Ngata, Clayton, Williams, and most of our young offensive linemen are still on their rookie deals and won't be breaking our bank yet; and a good number of our other key veterans are on contracts that will likely carry them to the end of their careers. We need to address Suggs immediately (possibly through this sort of trade), Ray Lewis soon, and perhaps Bart Scott soon after that; assuming we draft a QB and content ourselves with Troy Smith and the new guy as our future plans, we won't need to shell out big money at that position either.

The more I think about the Fitzgerald/Suggs trade, the more I like it and could see the possibilities for it... consider this: if we need to improve our side of the offer, we could propose swapping first-round picks with them as well. We would drop down to 16 and possibly still be in a position to select Brian Brohm; Chicago is the only team between 8 and 16 who would seriously look at a new QB, and we might be able to deal back up ahead of them if Brohm is who we're after (at this point, I'm beginning to assume that Matt Ryan is already headed to Atlanta). If we DON'T want to grab a QB in the first round, we will be in great shape to add one of the promising CBs like Aqib Talib or Mike Jenkins, or draft a DE like Calais Campbell to replace Suggs in our pass rush. Best of all, we would be on the hook for far less in guaranteed money by picking at 16 rather than 8, and this draft is weak enough that we're not likely to miss an elite prospect by making the swap. I personally think Suggs for Fitzgerald is close to even in talent and potential, but by throwing in a draft pick swap in the first, and asking for later picks (a third or a couple second-day picks) to rebalance the deal, we might be able to make this option even sweeter.

[HoustonRaven]

Wow, stop spouting off.. don't keep talking of what you do not know. Larry Fitz would not have, if signed to a long term, new contract a cap number anywhere near $10m. With the new Ravens style of doing things, and him already being an All Pro at a young age, it would probabloy be around $3m. Three tiered Bonus, 7 year deal, vet min salaries. The stupid uber cap numbers for 4 years.

You're talking in terms of what the Ravens would do and Im talking in terms of what he commands on the free market. He is making over $10 million right now, will command a $14 Million price tag next year IF he stays in AZ. I dont know what you think he will play in to then take an $11 Million pay cut. Maybe PFT is wrong on this, but thats $10 in straight money with no bonuses. NO way he comes to the Ravens given those numbers.

If PFT is right, why would he take a pay cut to come here???

[Fanman]

I love the idea of getting Williams or Fitz. But somehow I see the Ravens going on the cheap there for a FA or looking in the draft.

FM

[psuasskicker]

One guy I'd like to see come here: Bryant Johnson. Baltimore native, he's been stuck behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona. Maybe he's not the big name receiver, but I think he'd improve here with a bigger role in our offense. Plus, you could probably get him for pretty cheap...

I've been a fan of his since college. Dude's done a great job stuck behind two studs, and I've long thought he could be a great NFL WR if he were just given a chance out front.

- C -

[Greg]

You can't trade Suggs until he signs a contract unless he agrees to be dealt to the team in question. He has to sign a contract with SOMEBODY before a trade can be done and I can guarantee he won't sign a contract that is trade friendly with us (high bonus and immediate cap hit of it when traded) and I doubt he will agree to go to Detroit.

[Gabrosin]

You can't trade Suggs until he signs a contract unless he agrees to be dealt to the team in question. He has to sign a contract with SOMEBODY before a trade can be done and I can guarantee he won't sign a contract that is trade friendly with us (high bonus and immediate cap hit of it when traded) and I doubt he will agree to go to Detroit.

Unless I'm terribly mistaken, he's still technically under contract with us until the start of free agency, meaning we could in fact trade him now, with provisions in the deal that he immediately signs a long-term extension with the new team. We would not have to give him a contract with a signing bonus and take a cap hit prior to dealing him; it would be as if he signed in free agency with the new team, but they won't have to bid against anyone else to make it happen. However, once free agency starts, we have no rights to him any longer if we don't franchise him, and to franchise him we need to have the cap space up front to guarantee the full amount for one season. I believe we would be capable of making that happen, but I can't say for certain. And I know our aversion as a franchise to using the tag at all. Everything points to acting swiftly on this, if it was going to happen at all.

And Greg, don't be so sure he wouldn't agree to go to Detroit... money talks, and they have plenty of cap space to work with.

[RAVENOUS52]

I'm an optimistic person, but our record with bringing in bigtime FAs has been pretty much hit-or-miss (Searcy, Grbac and Primetime, etc...delivered less than expected.)

Unfortunately, we haven't had the type of success we anticipated over the past 7 to 8 years when it comes to bringing in or growing the gamebreaker at WR we so desperately need (Marcus Robinson, Travis Taylor, The T.O. debacle and the Mason pickup all come to mind).

Our next bigtime gamebreaking receiver will be our first since Jackson and Alexander.

It seems that we produce innumerable Defensive stars, yet our offense is as cursed as the Chicago Cubs' fanbase.

[jonboy79]

You're talking in terms of what the Ravens would do and Im talking in terms of what he commands on the free market. He is making over $10 million right now, will command a $14 Million price tag next year IF he stays in AZ. I dont know what you think he will play in to then take an $11 Million pay cut. Maybe PFT is wrong on this, but thats $10 in straight money with no bonuses. NO way he comes to the Ravens given those numbers.

If PFT is right, why would he take a pay cut to come here???

Yes, I am. McGahee's cap number was right around $2m for a 7 year $40 million dollar deal. $2.095m to be exact. That includes $15m in guaranteed money.

If Larry Fitz commands 150% of Mcgahee, seems roughly reasonable, that would be around $3m first year cap hit in a $7yr $60m deal with $22m in a 3 tiered Bonus, 12, 8 and then 4,

You are confusing cap hit with payout. He would have a first year pay out of almsot $13m with a cap hit of $3... He would take tha tpaycut because he won't be receiving $14m in salary from ARI or anywhere this year. He may at some point in his career, btu not today. His contract was designed with this year as an out year. He will either restructure or be traded. It is irrational to pay that salary.

[HoustonRaven]

Yes, I am. McGahee's cap number was right around $2m for a 7 year $40 million dollar deal. $2.095m to be exact. That includes $15m in guaranteed money.

If Larry Fitz commands 150% of Mcgahee, seems roughly reasonable, that would be around $3m first year cap hit in a $7yr $60m deal with $22m in a 3 tiered Bonus, 12, 8 and then 4,

You are confusing cap hit with payout. He would have a first year pay out of almsot $13m with a cap hit of $3... He would take tha tpaycut because he won't be receiving $14m in salary from ARI or anywhere this year. He may at some point in his career, btu not today. His contract was designed with this year as an out year. He will either restructure or be traded. It is irrational to pay that salary.

I see what you're saying now. My bad.

You really think he will have that much in bonus and incentives though?

[Rxdoxx]

N.O. has 3 reeivers as free agents (Patten, Henderson, Copper) and rumblings have Devery Henderson as a possible loss. (Colston, Meachem, and Moore and Ridgeway are there)
Not that he is a prime one we need, but if he can be gotten cheaply enough, I offer the following stat comparison
Darling 25yr old, 4yr vet, 20 career receptions, 16.6yd avg, 3TD, 1 fumble
Henderson 25, 4yr vet, 74 career receptions, 20.2yd avg, 20TD, 0 fumble

We'd give up 3 inches in height, but I seem to remember DD pulling up and a TD pass then sailing over his head for an incompletion.
I have not been impressed with his route running or his hands, although he did seem to produce a little this year (finally after 3 years of zippo). And after all he did beat out Clarence Moore for the roster spot (whoopee! what an outstanding accomplishment )

Maybe this would be a back-up upgrade?

[UKRavenStockers]

Henderson isn't an all round threat but he is a superb deep threat. He's not just got burning speed he actually understands how to run deep routes and get open and stay open on deep throws.

He doesn't have a great deal else to his game but as a deep threat he's a pretty good one, wouldn't mind seeing him come in if we picked up a couple of guys at receiver this off season.

[RavenScallywag]

I'd like to see Devery Henderson here...we passed on him at WR because he was a project and we couldn't develop WRs here...Be nice to see us grab him now that he's developed a bit.

But, I also would like to see DVD get another shot here. He was injured year 1, and got buried on the depth chart years 2 and 3. Moore was given a lot more shots than he was, I think you'd have to acknowledge that.

I think discounting the BIG WR pickups that would probably break the bank (Moss, Larry Fitzgerald trade, Roy Williams trade, Chad Johnson who is looking more crazy by the minute), our next best options are:

Bernard Berrian...will probably get some big market dollar since he's the 2nd best FA WR
Bryant Johnson...has looked pretty good for being a 3rd string WR, but he was also in pass happy Arizona (I can't even remember who starts in AZ at RB). Baltimore native, should be relatively cheap
Devery Henderson...has shown the deep threat, needs to be polished to be a complete WR.