DeCosta to Copy the Browns

[Trackmaster]

Nobody ever really said what "The Browns are using Moneyball" actually meant in English. Until we knew what they were actually, its hard to criticize the stat movement. I know that Bill Belichick has been using his own internal Moneyball-like stat methods that he's been keeping secret for years, and its turned out well for them.

Football is a lot harder to use stats for than baseball. Its an infinitely more complex game and a much more team oriented game.

Remember, computers and numbers are more precise and less prone to error, but the human mind has an off the charts number of connections made by our complex system of neurons that no man-made computer will ever match. But the human brain is prone to error and is unpredictable. This is why simple analysis like the analysis of baseball is best done by computers and equations. But complex analysis, like that done of prospects for a football team need to be done by teams of humans who can make decisions and put together difficult puzzles and equations. But that being said, for simple quantifiable data, its safe to put it into a computer, and have spit back the summary. But the humans have to interpret the data at the end of the day.

The reason that analysis for draft picks and future free agents is hard is because its not as easy as saying "ooh lookey that guy, he scored a lot of TD's, he won a championship, he run reeeeeaaalll fast! Sign him! Sign him!" You have to look into the crystal ball?
Yes, most importantly, will he be productive? Will he help your team score points on offense or prevent points if he's on defense?
Will he pitch in and do a great job at doing the little things that probably won't show up on a stat sheet?
Do your models show him getting better with age, worse with age, or is this his ceiling?
What is the status of his health? Can we model him to stay healthy, or will he get injured?
What about his character? Will he get along with our team? Will our players play with him?
What elements does he prefer? Can he play in cold weather? In snow? On turf?
What style of coaching doe he prefer? Does he need a player's coach? Does he need somebody to kick his ass to get him to pay attention and stop dropping balls?
etc.

These are things that complex models could help with. They need good football guys to consult with MIT and Harvard guys to write the software, and then the football guys need to carry the clipboards and fill out the questionaires from 1-10 so the data can be plugged in. But obviously, there's no right or wrong answer, and information and processes can always be improved. But I see Silicon Valley taking over sports faster than I see a movement back to the traditional.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

The Browns' version of Moneyball had them pass on Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson in consecutive drafts.

That's really all that needs to be said about it.

Yup.

That's what happens when you hire people with zero football evaluation experience to not add data FOR your football people but actually make those people THE football people.

Giving Sashi Brown the keys was a stupid Browns mistake as he surrounded himself with the math nerds and had nobody with any pulll/decision making to tell him to fucking watch the tape of the players. He had no experience building a team, no experience watching someone build a successful team and when you put a guy like that in charge, there are very little actual football checks and balances against just looking at stats/numbers/workout numbers.

Who was the numbers nerd who got on the radio up there and said that they didn't believe Wentz would ever be a top 20 QB based on their data?

[Mizerooskie]

Yup.

That's what happens when you hire people with zero football evaluation experience to not add data FOR your football people but actually make those people THE football people.

Giving Sashi Brown the keys was a stupid Browns mistake as he surrounded himself with the math nerds and had nobody with any pulll/decision making to tell him to fucking watch the tape of the players. He had no experience building a team, no experience watching someone build a successful team and when you put a guy like that in charge, there are very little actual football checks and balances against just looking at stats/numbers/workout numbers.

Who was the numbers nerd who got on the radio up there and said that they didn't believe Wentz would ever be a top 20 QB based on their data?

I look at analytics much like the combine. You use them to separate players you've got similarly evaluated based on film, to eliminate/elevate players from your consideration based on things you aren't necessarily seeing on film, and to put players in the "need to watch more film" group.

[The Excellector]

I look at analytics much like the combine. You use them to separate players you've got similarly evaluated based on film, to eliminate/elevate players from your consideration based on things you aren't necessarily seeing on film, and to put players in the "need to watch more film" group.

At first glance, that seems like a good way to look at it.

[Trackmaster]

Analytics is still in its infancy. I'm sure that the Browns numbers guys just heavily struggled, as football is an infinitely more complex game than game. Its like having a chess grandmaster trying to translate his skills to the actual battlefield as an actual general. One is just infinitely more complex than the other. As analytics is in its infancy in football, that's why its just a supplement, where it can be used to maybe find diamonds in the rough. But if you invest in more supercomputers, hire guys from MIT, Cal Tech, Harvard, Google, NSA, DOD, NASA (you may laugh, but its a billion dollar industry, the NFL teams might be able to pay a better salary) to write your code and run your algorithms, you might be surprised at what you find. The work will never be complete, and it can always get better.