A Spot on Article

[Shas]

Steelers have.... and lost. NE, DEN, IND, SF too.

We had basically unparalleled success with our first 5 years. weve been back down to earth the past 5. Its a hard pill for some to swallow, but were still better off than half the league over that span.

This is totally my perspective. While it's satisfying to think the author hit on "the problem" with the Ravens--it's an interesting spin for a story--it's not a very valid analysis or solution.

I think it's, well, lazy, to call for the firing of a coach or GM or other sea-change, to fix a problem. (see Cleveland Browns year after year). There's no real thinking with that line of argument. Fans are looking for the magic bullet, I know...the one move that will change the course of the franchise. But that doesn't exist.

Oh, sure, you can point to Bellichick going to New England, or finding Brady in the sixth round. But that's the exception that proves the rule to how team's fortunes go in this league.

The rule is that it's a parity league, with a handful of teams who have been consistently good over an extended period and a handful of consistently bad (more on that in a minute). And then in the middle, everyone else...with a whole slew of fans opining on message boards about that one thing that will get their team over the top.

And that's the way the league wants it. They want glory just out of the reach of the most number of teams, with the hope there is one simple fix to get us there.

The Ravens, you could argue, were just a couple of dropped receptions and interceptions from winning 13 games. They really were. Or a couple injuries on offensive and defensive lines, or maybe a Jimmy Smith, from and entirely different season. But they also benefitted from a very easy schedule that they should have capitalized on.

Or they are just one firing and magic hiring away from being the Patriots, you could argue...unconvincingly.

You have to normalize the data. You can't just look at one thing, or one team.

You can't compare what actually has transpired to what you expected to transpire. You have to compare your team to the rest of the league.

To your point, here's the combined records of all teams since Harbaugh and Flacco came into the league:

Team				Win	Loss	Tie
1. New England Patriots 	139	37	
2. Pittsburgh Steelers		116	60	
3. Green Bay Packers 		113	62	1
4. Indianapolis Colts		104	72	
5. New Orleans Saints 		102	74	
6. Atlanta Falcons		99	77	
7. Baltimore Ravens		99	77	
8. Dallas Cowboys 		99	75	
9. Denver Broncos	        99	77	
10. Seattle Seahawks		98	77	1
11. Philadelphia Eagles		97	78	1
12. Arizona Cardinals		94	81	1
13. Minnesota Vikings		93	82	1
14. Carolina Panthers		93	82	1
15. San Diego/LA Chargers	92	84	
16. New York Giants 		91	85	
17. Cincinnati Bengals 		90	83	3
18. Houston Texans		86	90	
19. San Francisco 49ers		83	92	1
20. Kansas City Chiefs		82	94	
21. Tennessee Titans 		82	94	
22. New York Jets		79	97	
23. Chicago Bears 		79	97	
24. Miami Dolphins 		77	99	
25. Buffalo Bills  	        75	100	
26. Washington Redskins		73	102	1
27. Detroit Lions  	        72	104	
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	68	108	
29. Oakland Raiders		66	110	
30. Jacksonville Jaguars	63	113	
31. St. Louis/LA Rams		57	118	1
32. Cleveland Browns            48      128

So there the Ravens are, a consistently good, not great, top ten team compared to the rest of the league. While we're frustrated by 8-8, 9-7 seasons and just missing the playoffs by a dropped pass or dumb coaching move, the reality is, that's life in the NFL.

Oh, sure, the last five years don't look as good as the first five under Harbs. And that's part of normal, too. Different teams have different rhythms.

You look at all those teams bunched up in the middle, and the better ones, like the Ravens, tend to avoid many really bad years. And others are more schizo, with fabulous year thrown into the middle of a bunch of stinkers. We'll see if Jacksonville or the Rams have suddenly turned the corner, or if they'll regress to the mean. Oakland was supposed to be an up and comer. So too Tampa. But where are they now?

If I step back and look at the data the one thing that stands out--and isn't at all a novel observation--is that it's a quarterback league. Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger and Rogers are rare talents that keep their teams near the top consistenly. Teams that are consistently bad (Browns, Jets, Bears, Dolphins) haven't found their franchise QB.

Teams with good not great QBs keep their teams somewhere in that middle tier of consistently competitive. Newton, Wilson, Flacco, Ryan, Romo, Eli, Rivers, Dalton, all come to mind.

You can see what's going to happen to a franchise like Indy with Manning gone and Luck's health status a big question mark.

You can also speculate how different Green Bay, Oakland or Houston could have been with a healthy Rogers, Carr or Watson, if McVay, Marriotta or Garoppolo will truly move the needle for their teams.

To sum all this up, I basically reject the author's assertion that there is some big-picture malfunction within the Ravens organization (i.e., stubbornly holding on to an old, out of date formula) that, if we snapped our fingers and changed it, would free the team to be great.

I believe they can win with this owner, GM, scouts, head coach, coordinators (assuming Martindale or Pagano or Fangio) and QB. And they just need to get 10% better on what they surround them with.

More specifically, they need better options at wide receiver, a faster tight end threat, and a linebacker who can cover the middle of the field.

To give some credence to the author, I do think the Ravens do have an out of date perspective on what they look for these three positions. I think they look for downhill linebackers who they can find undrafted rather than prioritize on coverage skills. (I'd prefer they convert a safety into an inside/coverage LB type rather than trying to convert an OLB/pass-rusher into one). They don't seem to target elusive, great hands receivers, instead looking for straight line speed. And they tend to pick plodding tight ends rather than a guy who can outrun defenders.

Add those pieces and--assuming they can get healthy again on the lines of scrimmage and at CB and hold onto some younger players (ie, Jensen)--and I think they have decent enough depth to improve on a 9-7 record. (I'd also like to see them draft a mid-round developmental QB--there are some interesting prospects in the later rounds)

And again, thinking about the league as a whole, if Roethlisberger were to retire I believe that really changes the landscape for the Ravens way more than an internal coaching or GM change would help them.

[Terpsfan82]

And one of those games we had Mallett as the starting QB. And they have missed the playoffs the last two years.

I still do not understand how their "roster building" is so superior.

7-3 says it is.

[Captain Offense]

7-3 says it is.

OK. I understand your definition. We will just agree to disagree that the head-to-head means anything.

[JonAB]

I don’t really agree with the article and the premise that they’re trying to rebuild the 2000 team. What I’m seeing is them trying to rebuild the 2008-2012 team and not doing a great job. They’re using retread WRs (Maclin/Wallace instead of Boldin/Jones) with a high pick WR (Perriman vs Smith). They tried drafting Pittas replacement. They haven’t really tried anything to replace Rice properly but have gotten lucky to find Collins (whose still not Rice by a long shot btw). The defense is talented but coached poorly. I don’t really know what they’re gonna do to fix it right away because the Perriman/Maclin/Williams whiffs set us back so badly. I still believe in the 2008/2012 model, I believe those really good Seahawks were built much the same, but the fact is that if you whiff so badly on the spot that you’ve given very little ammo to then it becomes a failure. They should have drafted more WRs as a hedge against the Perriman flop. I think they invested enough in TE from a practical standpoint but whiffed real bad... Boyle is ok but Gilmore and Williams injuries combined with a rather poor Watson signing were major misses.

I like the talent going forward on defense but they seriously need to figure out how to fix the pass catching issue on this team if they want to do anything over the next two years.

[wickedsolo]

Very good read.

The one thing I don't quite get is why John Harbaugh would be living in a past that he wasn't a part of? Ozzie was there and was the architect of that roster. It makes sense for him. But why Harbaugh? His best success came with Joe Flacco playing his best football. That Super Bowl wasn't about defense. It was about great passing in the playoffs. You would think that would be the past that Harbaugh would want to recreate.

I think the writer meant living in the past from 2008-2012 when the Ravens still had a pretty good defense that a young offense could lean on.

Even then though...they still had Mason, Boldin, Pitta, Rice, McGahee, and others making plays on offense.

[NestMinder]

Add those pieces and--assuming they can get healthy again on the lines of scrimmage and at CB and hold onto some younger players (ie, Jensen)--and I think they have decent enough depth to improve on a 9-7 record. (I'd also like to see them draft a mid-round developmental QB--there are some interesting prospects in the later rounds)

And again, thinking about the league as a whole, if Roethlisberger were to retire I believe that really changes the landscape for the Ravens way more than an internal coaching or GM change would help them.

(to everything you said; just didn't want to quote the entire post)

FWIW, a guy on Twitter who claims to play golf with Fat Ben's Dad tells me Ben is definitely retiring this offseason. This guy has shown some ability to have some inside info in the past, but I'm not convinced, and won't be until that Fat rapey drama queen bastard submits his paperwork to the league.

[SugarRay52]

Same here. FWO can't see me!

Stop bringing Cena on here LOL

[SugarRay52]

lol they don't wanna hear the truth bout their boy Shug knows he'll be back

LOL I ain’t coming back I’m FWO 4 Life so case closed LOL

[Moe the Crow]

I think it's bad drafting, particularly when drafting for need which is supposedly counter to our philosophy. Elam, Brown, perriman, correa, Williams. We missed on some good players too and had horrible luck with injuries which have wreaked havoc with gpod decision making. Campy, Perriman, urban, lewis-moore, young, Dixon, smith.....
The drafting has been bad.

[The Excellector]

The only reason I don't want to get with the idea of normalcy is, because QBs who can get it done in the playoffs don't grow on trees. You just can't afford to waste the opportunities you get with those guys. Even some of the very good QBs in the league have struggled in the playoffs. Tony Romo. Philip Rivers. It took Peyton Manning six years to win his first playoff game and he had Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark to throw the ball to. Flacco isn't some precision passer, but he is clutch. Even if you find another QB who can put up regular season numbers under a new regime, how many QBs can you honestly say consistently, year in and year out, step up in the clutch when it comes to the playoffs and the biggest end of the year regular season games?

As for the Bengals debate, the only thing that Marvin Lewis got wrong was the QB. If you subbed Joe Flacco for Andy Dalton, I firmly believe that the Bengals would have had several playoff victories by this point, if not a title. Lewis has also done a great job of identifying a successful offensive and defensive system, and developing a pipeline of assistants to coach and call that system.

[BcRaven]

... QBs who can get it done in the playoffs don't grow on trees. You just can't afford to waste the opportunities you get with those guys.

Ex, just took this slice of your post. You hit the nail square on its head here. This is one reason I'm bummed by our last minute loss. Some have posted, 'we don't belong in the playoffs due to X', but I'm of the mind let's see if January Joe shows up. This Ravens team cannot allow itself to let opportunities like this slip through our fingers. Same pretty much goes for 2016. I don't want to watch the playoffs and think "what might have been?" ... Bc

[The Excellector]

Ex, just took this slice of your post. You hit the nail square on its head here. This is one reason I'm bummed by our last minute loss. Some have posted, 'we don't belong in the playoffs due to X', but I'm of the mind let's see if January Joe shows up. This Ravens team cannot allow itself to let opportunities like this slip through our fingers. Same pretty much goes for 2016. I don't want to watch the playoffs and think "what might have been?" ... Bc

Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo (When he was around), even Peyton Manning, were not great playoff QBs. For all of their stats and accolades, they just could not be counted on very often in the playoffs unless the conditions were perfect. The list of QBs you can legitimate rely on in the playoffs is even smaller than any top 10 QB list you can think of and there might be some non-top 10 QBs in there.