CTE in the NFL

[Ortizer]

Honestly, he's really into building shit and music. I've been playing guitar for about 20 years, so maybe he will want to play drums or something. Who knows?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Drums are where it's at. You should encourage that!

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[mmi16]

Does CTE reduce consumer demand for football?

Or does it reduce the supply short term, thus causing prices(player salaries) to rise? Will that in turn attract more players into the market and shift the equilibrium point?

It won't necessarily reduce the demand for football, however, I suspect the supply of players will diminish from Pee Wee to High School to College to the Pro's. With a diminishing number of players there will be a overall loss of quality. You may still have the outstanding stars as you do today, but their stardom will happen against the back drop of lesser skilled players than exist in the game today.

The NFL, as the pot o'gold in the sport had to get together with the equipment manufacturers and come up with a helmet that will protect players from having their brains rattle around within their skulls.

[bravens23]

It won't necessarily reduce the demand for football, however, I suspect the supply of players will diminish from Pee Wee to High School to College to the Pro's. With a diminishing number of players there will be a overall loss of quality. You may still have the outstanding stars as you do today, but their stardom will happen against the back drop of lesser skilled players than exist in the game today.

The NFL, as the pot o'gold in the sport had to get together with the equipment manufacturers and come up with a helmet that will protect players from having their brains rattle around within their skulls.

Correct. The supply of quality product will be the first domino to fall (if it falls), and that will eventually trigger a decrease in demand, as consumers begin to realize the decline in quality of product.

I think in the long run you'll continue to see an increase in demand, but a decrease in "marginal demand", meaning the demand for the product will increase at a decreasing rate.

I don't suspect that we will see NFL players go from making $20M a year to $2M a year in my lifetime, but I do think that 20 years from now you'll see NFL salaries sort of flatten out.

[BigPlayReceiver]

More importantly, with the recent development of PET-scan live-imaging of the tau protein (the protein for brain degeneration)...physicians can now determine brain trauma in live patients.

One has to imagine, when will teams/healthcare be required to check for tau/brain trauma in contract physicals...??

THAT would be the game-changer for the NFL.

And perhaps less likely, if industry can engineer a proper chip (and if the NFL and NFLPA agree -- but I don't know how we get there from here), instances for which a player meets or exceeds some "concussion threshold" could be determined in real-time.

[BigPlayReceiver]

Possibly loss of other programs as well. Facility requirements for d1 sports mean that a lot of time, football is subsidizing the other programs.

Absolutely. And even in a good case scenario, there will be a long, long lag until "whatever-sports-takes-the-place-of-football-with-respect-to-popularity" is able to carry the day financially for these schools.

[Kyle Cactus]

Does CTE reduce consumer demand for football?

Or does it reduce the supply short term, thus causing prices(player salaries) to rise? Will that in turn attract more players into the market and shift the equilibrium point?

There are a fixed number of players in the NFL because of roster rules. So in the NFL there will be no change in the number of players the money is being divided between. But as others pointed out, if there are less players getting into football, the quality of the game will suffer, and that could cause people to tune out and revenues to stagnate or drop.

If/when the best "football" players in the world start playing in MLS, it will be fascinating to see what will become the new pecking order in American sports.

I think, despite our other thread complaining about it, the NBA will keep trucking. Basketball will always be a game that can be dominated by a few great individuals, so there will always be dynasties and super teams, but it is also a sport that does a fantastic job showcasing the athleticism and skill of its players. I'm primarily an NFL and soccer fan, but I think the NBA is ahead of everyone in this regard.

I think MLB will continue to slowly wane (relative to other sports). The game is just not as dynamic as any of these other sports. It was the first great American sport, but over time nostalgia and deference to history will erode.

I think MLS's potential is huge, but I wouldn't offer any confident predictions. Maybe it never comes to dominate its sport the way other American leagues do. Some of the big teams in Europe have thrown around the idea of a league that combines the best teams across Europe. I don't think that happens any time soon, but when pressure for the top players from outside Europe increases, I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen. China has a looooooong way to go with soccer, but its pro league has been throwing around a lot of money. There's a lot of news about those teams getting chastised for spending beyond their means, but I think the Chinese interest and investment will continue to grow. If all this prevents the MLS league from dominating soccer like the NBA dominates basketball, maybe that prevents it from reaching the level of popularity of other US or US/Canadian leagues. On the other hand maybe MLS decisively becomes the best league in the world for the worlds most popular sport, and a sport that has been slowly but steadily growing in the US. Then MLS revenue/popularity/etc... could eventually surpass every league in the world in any sport.

NHL ... maybe continues at a 2nd tier level of popularity ... or maybe they discover CTE issues there as well and it hurts the sport.

I think we're more or less at peak NFL (relative to other sports), but I don't think any decline would happen quickly. CTE will definitely hurt the game, but people are resistant to change. Most people who have followed the NFL for decades aren't going to stop, even if the level of competition starts to decline (which I think would only happen gradually).

[HbgPARavenfan]

are those also trillion dollar businesses and #1 sports in america?
NFL will still be around but not a behemoth like it is now

fair point, I thought you meant done in a more literal sense. I dont think it ever really loses its #1 ranking. Basketball will gain more ground overtime due to its ability to market individual stars.

I dont think soccer or hockey ever make it close to #1. We have ADHD as a society. We like that football has 10 seconds of intense action than 30 seconds for us to not pay a attention and check our phones

[mmi16]

CTE may not reduce the 'demand' for football, but is most likely will increase the reluctance of Mothers (and to an extent Fathers) from letting their sons get involved in the game. At the worst, there potentially could be laws that outlaw the game being participated in by minors. If that would come to pass, does one BEGIN to learn the fundamentals at age 21, when they are legally permitted to participate?

Could Langiere Football be the pro game of the future?

[Goode05]

CTE may not reduce the 'demand' for football, but is most likely will increase the reluctance of Mothers (and to an extent Fathers) from letting their sons get involved in the game. At the worst, there potentially could be laws that outlaw the game being participated in by minors. If that would come to pass, does one BEGIN to learn the fundamentals at age 21, when they are legally permitted to participate?

Could Langiere Football be the pro game of the future?

I think you would see a large rise of either flag football or 7 on 7


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bravens23]

There are a fixed number of players in the NFL because of roster rules. So in the NFL there will be no change in the number of players the money is being divided between. But as others pointed out, if there are less players getting into football, the quality of the game will suffer, and that could cause people to tune out and revenues to stagnate or drop.

If/when the best "football" players in the world start playing in MLS, it will be fascinating to see what will become the new pecking order in American sports.

I think, despite our other thread complaining about it, the NBA will keep trucking. Basketball will always be a game that can be dominated by a few great individuals, so there will always be dynasties and super teams, but it is also a sport that does a fantastic job showcasing the athleticism and skill of its players. I'm primarily an NFL and soccer fan, but I think the NBA is ahead of everyone in this regard.

I think MLB will continue to slowly wane (relative to other sports). The game is just not as dynamic as any of these other sports. It was the first great American sport, but over time nostalgia and deference to history will erode.

I think MLS's potential is huge, but I wouldn't offer any confident predictions. Maybe it never comes to dominate its sport the way other American leagues do. Some of the big teams in Europe have thrown around the idea of a league that combines the best teams across Europe. I don't think that happens any time soon, but when pressure for the top players from outside Europe increases, I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen. China has a looooooong way to go with soccer, but its pro league has been throwing around a lot of money. There's a lot of news about those teams getting chastised for spending beyond their means, but I think the Chinese interest and investment will continue to grow. If all this prevents the MLS league from dominating soccer like the NBA dominates basketball, maybe that prevents it from reaching the level of popularity of other US or US/Canadian leagues. On the other hand maybe MLS decisively becomes the best league in the world for the worlds most popular sport, and a sport that has been slowly but steadily growing in the US. Then MLS revenue/popularity/etc... could eventually surpass every league in the world in any sport.

NHL ... maybe continues at a 2nd tier level of popularity ... or maybe they discover CTE issues there as well and it hurts the sport.

I think we're more or less at peak NFL (relative to other sports), but I don't think any decline would happen quickly. CTE will definitely hurt the game, but people are resistant to change. Most people who have followed the NFL for decades aren't going to stop, even if the level of competition starts to decline (which I think would only happen gradually).

Lot of good points here. I'd point out a few key other things I see...

1. The in demand for MLB, much in the way we are discussing the possible decrease in demand for the NFL, is driven largely by demographics and geography. For starters, Black people are migrating away from baseball as a sport to play in very large numbers. That eliminates a key segment of the population from an athletics standpoint. With black people generally living in more urban, city-driven areas, there is less space for baseball and less easy supply of the ability to participate in it.

Add that in with the fact that Baseball is almost exclusively a Spring/Summer sport that is played exclusively outdoors, you're eliminating the ability for a large portion of this country to play the sport year round. Only in Southern or warmer climate states do you see Baseball played on a year-round level, and that's why the largest areas of quality baseball is produced in these areas.

Now one could argue that you become better athletically as an adolescent/teenager by participating in multiple sports as opposed to spending year-round focused on one sport, but I don't generally thing that's a perception shared by college or professional sports teams at this time.

Its one of the major disadvantages baseball has always had. Football can be a year round sport to a certain extent, given that its peak seasons are played outdoors and in sometimes terrible weather conditions, and basketball is primarily an indoor sport, though can be played outdoors during the summer. Neither of those sports face the same demographic or geographic limitations than Baseball does.

2. We need to keep in mind that I think its going to be realistically at least 20-25 years, possibly as long as 40 or so, before we start to see what the full impact of CTE studying and public perception is on the issue.

We have seen an influx in parents choosing not to allow their children to participate in tackle football, but I don't think that increase shifts the market barely at all at this point, as many parents at this age grew up on football and don't necessarily agree with the long term detriments.

Now once today's youth become parents of their own, and perhaps one generation after that, then we will see how they view football.

[bravens23]

I think you would see a large rise of either flag football or 7 on 7


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree here. That's the way the market is shifting I think. Emphasis on keeping kids out of tackle football until the high school level.

I think in the next decade or so you'll see very few "Pop Warner" football leagues that allow for helmets, pads, and tackling. I think you'll see them learn the fundamental mental concepts of the game through flag football, and then the high school level will be used to teach the fundamentals of proper tackling, etc.

The obvious issue here is the trickle down effect of that. That would mean that high school players become increasingly more raw, and they're not as prepared to play right away in College as they are now. That would devalue the college game to a certain extent.

The upside of that is it could force more emphasis in staying in college for the full 4-5 years, as it becomes less likely that players are as ready to enter the NFL at 20 years old. Though I do think this would give perhaps a bigger advantage to certain skill position players like QB and WR, who's skill sets could be mastered a lot better during flag football times, rather than the skills required of a linebackers or lineman.

[musicturtle]

What will be interesting to me is if a court of law finds the NFL guilty as one did the tobacco industry. Problem for the NFL is the fans aren't really hooked chemically to football and if they triple the prices, the average Joe won't be able to go to the games. I don't think the problem will be finding players to play even if they know the risk. I think the problem will be if the NFL is found to have known for very long that this could happen to players and they did not act accordingly, how are they going to compensate the former players and families for their losses?