Joe & Friends: QB Enlightenment (and confusion!) via stats, analytics...and eventually film!

**BigPlayReceiver** · 07-11-2017, 03:05 PM

Flipping over to the basic box-score view...Joe's poor TD/INT ratios of 14:12 and 20:15 from the 2015 (shortened) and 2016 seasons, respectively, really stand out.

For 2016, Joe was 15:9 after the bye--as he threw at least one INT in each of the nine games except for @DAL, and only multiple TDs in four of those nine games.

Assuming healthy WRs 1-3, the TD side of the ratio should skyrocket relative to 2016. (His career high of 27 came in 2014.)
Then, if the elders, Woodhead and Watson manage to be productive no less than 75-80% of the time, that's a bit more of a boost.
(Note: All RBs and TEs combined in 2016 had just 7 TDs on a whopping 225 catches.)
I have to assume that the offense's efficiency (via play-calling) will improve as well.

On the opposite side, I don't think anyone is comfortable with the OL as it stands today, nor with the prospects of West, Woodhead and Dixon rolling for >=4.5 YPC.
I like what Dixon can become, but his 4.3 YPC on only ~7.25 carries per game is not worth projecting forward.

**The Excellector** · 07-11-2017, 08:31 PM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

On the opposite side, I don't think anyone is comfortable with the OL as it stands today

That's just it. I would be harder on Flacco if we've actually seen circumstances where the offensive line consistent allowed him to get comfortable in the pocket. I haven't seen that since he's been here. Hell, the closest I've seen was the year they won the Super Bowl and, even then, it wasn't great. It just wasn't shit.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 07-12-2017, 08:53 AM

I'd like to keep this thread as data-focused as possible to include discussions that branch from there.

There's a Flacco thread to discuss more general positions, notions, theories, myths and such about Joe.
http://forum.russellstreetreport.com...-Flacco-Thread

Note: Several, recent posts have been moved to the thread above

**leachisabeast** · 07-12-2017, 05:09 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

That's just it. I would be harder on Flacco if we've actually seen circumstances where the offensive line consistent allowed him to get comfortable in the pocket. I haven't seen that since he's been here. Hell, the closest I've seen was the year they won the Super Bowl and, even then, it wasn't great. It just wasn't shit.

Nonsense

**The Excellector** · 07-12-2017, 05:23 PM

As far as time in the pocket, what I saw last season was that in Baltimore, the edges were rather well protected, but there was no pocket to really step up into, because Zuttah was constantly getting pushed back. In New England, there was actually a deep pocket to step up into.

**ClericBlackDave** · 07-13-2017, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

Random learning nugget #17: With about 2/3s of all PFF QB data accounted for, since 2011, on average, QBs have thrown 63% of their INTs from a clean pocket.

Beforehand, I figured the average would fall on the other side of 50%.
For Joe it's 54%..."comfortably" below the average.

Others
Tom: 51%
Brees: 63%
Rodgers: 78%
Dalton: 74%
Ben: 72%
Cam: 53%
Ryan: 67%

Note: This is a raw split (Clean pocket INTs vs. Total INTs)...and QBs have had a clean pocket for 66% of all throws.

This doesn't surprise me.

A clean pocket actually means in most cases less pass rush and more bodies in coverage. Throwing to maybe just 3-4 guys running patterns against a 7 man, maybe even 8 man coverage is difficult. If you get fooled on what the defense is doing, or just make a bad decision or inaccurate throw, you're going to get got.

Also consider that blitzing leaves more 1on1 and easy hot reads for the QB to make plays and easy decisions.

**ClericBlackDave** · 07-13-2017, 09:24 AM

Originally Posted by leachisabeast

Nonsense

Great reply. Except it's not nonsense. We've never been really able to consistently keep Joe upright. Our o-line has been road graters and run blockers. We've thrived off play action. The best pass pro we had came with the Superbowl run, but that was the one random time we got both McKinnie and Oher clicking and our interior was K.O., Birk, and Yanda. That's a good o-line.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 07-13-2017, 09:24 AM

Originally Posted by ClericBlackDave

This doesn't surprise me.

A clean pocket actually means in most cases less pass rush and more bodies in coverage. Throwing to maybe just 3-4 guys running patterns against a 7 man, maybe even 8 man coverage is difficult. If you get fooled on what the defense is doing, or just make a bad decision or inaccurate throw, you're going to get got.

Also consider that blitzing leaves more 1on1 and easy hot reads for the QB to make plays and easy decisions.

100%. I landed on "hot reads vs. blitzes" after I thought about it for a bit, but I think you definitely nail it with this^^.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 07-13-2017, 09:28 AM

Originally Posted by ClericBlackDave

Great reply. Except it's not nonsense. We've never been really able to consistently keep Joe upright. Our o-line has been road graters and run blockers. We've thrived off play action. The best pass pro we had came with the Superbowl run, but that was the one random time we got both McKinnie and Oher clicking and our interior was K.O., Birk, and Yanda. That's a good o-line.

In the context of throwing the ball a wholllle lot less, I'd also offer that "minimizing situations where Joe needs to be kept upright" > "keeping Joe upright".
This is largely what drove 2014's success--his best all-around statistical season.

EDIT: Oh. 2010 was just about as successful as 2014 for Joe. Yet we ran the ball with less success. Worth looking into...

**BigPlayReceiver** · 07-13-2017, 03:26 PM

We know that pressure adversely affects all QBs--some much more than others.

Difference between QB rating when clean vs. when under pressure (2016)...

Joe: -36.4

notables...

Brees: -30.8 (lack of height shows under this condition?)
Ryan: -41.7 (b/c his "clean" rating is sky high)
Wilson: -10.6 (sooo good under fire)
Tannehill: -67.5 (yiiiiikes)
Tyrod: -14.2 (oh?)
Brady: -38.1 (very similar to Ryan)
Rivers: -46.4 (too many damn kids!)

**RavensBoy52** · 07-13-2017, 04:04 PM

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...-pressure-2016

Article is about QB's and pressure. Joe has had exactly average pressure rate from 2012-2016 among qualifying quarterbacks and only Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill have performed worse than Joe when under pressure. Eli Manning and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the only QB's who have performed worse than Joe when not pressured in the same time frame.

**BPF2** · 07-13-2017, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

We know that pressure adversely affects all QBs--some much more than others.

Difference between QB rating when clean vs. when under pressure (2016)...

Joe: -36.4

notables...

Brees: -30.8 (lack of height shows under this condition?)
Ryan: -41.7 (b/c his "clean" rating is sky high)
Wilson: -10.6 (sooo good under fire)
Tannehill: -67.5 (yiiiiikes)
Tyrod: -14.2 (oh?)
Brady: -38.1 (very similar to Ryan)
Rivers: -46.4 (too many damn kids!)

Wilson and Tyrod don't surprise me because when under pressure they can use their legs to escape and extend the play. That usually leads to coverage breakdowns.

Brady doesn't surprise me much either, mostly because the QBR with a clean pocket is so high, even with pressure his number is still pretty good.