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  1. #181

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?



    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post
    I'm not sure if I agree with it or not, but Ozzie seems to be gaming the system when it comes to the draft.

    I looked at a couple studies on the success rate of drafting players, by position, by round. When it comes to high round picks, QB, WR and RB top the list as the lowest success percentages, as defined by players who spend at least half of their careers as starters. (I posted something similar previously...maybe even earlier in this thread, so sorry if it's redundant; also, the studies didn't cover the last five drafts, and I feel like RB success rate has improved as of late, but that's subjective).

    So I can at least understand why they may shy away from "gambling" on a wide receiver.

    Here are the top receivers taken in the first three rounds of the 2015 draft.

    • Amari Cooper†
      Kevin White
      DeVante Parker
      Nelson Agholor
      Breshad Perriman
      Phillip Dorsett
      Devin Smith
      Dorial Green-Beckham
      Devin Funchess
      Tyler Lockett†
      Jaelen Strong
      Chris Conley
      Sammie Coates
      Ty Montgomery
      Jamison Crowder


    † = Pro Bowler

    Look how many on this list have yet to be anything more than a mediocre NFL receiver. We lament Ozzie's failure to draft "playmakers" but we need to accept a dose of reality as we demand more.

    Really, look at the three receivers taken ahead of Perriman and the four taken behind him. Not one has done anything more than him and many have actually produced less. From the top if the first round through the the top of the second, that's eight straight wide receivers taken, none of whom I'd call a "playmaker" based on what they've done in the league so far.

    While I'm not a huge fan of picking through the veteran scrap heap looking for a starting receiver...I do get it.
    Could just be a bad draft class. Look at the 2014 draft class. Besides Watkins due to injury the rest are well above a normal hit rate


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  2. #182

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    Alshon would have worked imo.

    But I don't think we've ever paid a WR more than wallaces $8M in one year this year.

    We simply do not value the position, be it draft or otherwise.


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    Honestly I would have been fine letting Wallace go and bringing in Alshon. Atleast you have two different type receivers in him and Perriman


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  3. #183

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    I'm going to go against the grain and say that not treating WR as a top team priority is generally OK. You can win without game-breaking WRs.

    But you can't de-prioritize WR, OL, and RB ALL, as the Ravens have. Plenty of teams won Super Bowls with pass-catchers who were just good enough. But IMO OL is the bedrock of a football team. With it, your QB has time to find SOMEONE who will eventually get open, especially if the defense is sneaking a safety up because you're also running the ball well. With a bad OL you have constant 3 and outs, a tired defense, and a team that can't answer the inevitable busted coverage or STs TD.

    It's no coincidence that the Ravens' rag-tag approach to the OL in recent years has translated to overall horrible offensive production--and a disappointing W-L record.





  4. #184
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    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    I'm looking at the way this team has lost big games over the years and one constant has been pass catchers dropping big passes. I don't know how many times the team needs to see it before they figure out that it needs to become a priority and not just something you spend a high pick on once and say 'Welp, we tried'.

    Back during the 2012 Off-season, Steve Bisciotti was asked what more the team could have done to get to the Super Bowl and he answered "Catch the ball". That was almost six years ago. It's like he forgot what he said.
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  5. #185
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    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goode05 View Post
    Honestly I would have been fine letting Wallace go and bringing in Alshon. Atleast you have two different type receivers in him and Perriman


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    With his injury history I would not of been happy with that move. I believe BP can contest catches very well, just need him and Joe get the redzone chemistry down





  6. #186

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goode05 View Post
    Could just be a bad draft class. Look at the 2014 draft class. Besides Watkins due to injury the rest are well above a normal hit rate
    You're probably right on that point.

    And it's really too early to know which one of these "mediocre" receivers will establish himself. Which, could by the way, include Perriman.

    As for "normal hit rate", the study I saw, over seven drafts I believe, showed 58% of first round receivers become regular starters. So it is "normal" for one in three first round receivers to fail.





  7. #187

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post
    You're probably right on that point.

    And it's really too early to know which one of these "mediocre" receivers will establish himself. Which, could by the way, include Perriman.

    As for "normal hit rate", the study I saw, over seven drafts I believe, showed 58% of first round receivers become regular starters. So it is "normal" for one in three first round receivers to fail.
    Did they say what the success rate is for the first round in general. I heard before 2nd rounders in general are 50%


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  8. Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post
    You're probably right on that point.

    And it's really too early to know which one of these "mediocre" receivers will establish himself. Which, could by the way, include Perriman.

    As for "normal hit rate", the study I saw, over seven drafts I believe, showed 58% of first round receivers become regular starters. So it is "normal" for one in three first round receivers to fail.
    And how does that compare with Ozzie' success rate recently with picking defense (constantly) in Rounds 2 & 3?





  9. #189

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by PerpetuallyBored74 View Post
    And how does that compare with Ozzie' success rate recently with picking defense (constantly) in Rounds 2 & 3?
    Picking in round two and three has been an issue for Ozzie ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL, for many drafts now.

    Since we're talking about neglecting to gamble on first round wide receivers, it's only fair to compare that success rate to first round picks used on defensive players.

    In Ozzie's case, that would mean:

    Mosley
    Elam
    Ngata
    Suggs
    Reed
    McAlister
    Starks
    Boulware
    Lewis

    So that's one pick that failed to become a regular starter, or an 89% success rate drafting defense in the first round. Compared to the 58% league-wide success drafting first round wide receivers.

    The fact that the first round receiver list would include Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton and Breshard Perriman, I think you can conclude Ozzie's track record matches the league-wide averages, only even more pronounced.

    Really, the quality of his defensive picks more dramatic than that, because the standard I quoted from that ten-year study simply to establish themselves as a starter for half their career. Whereas most of these defensive picks for Ozzie were Pro-Bowl caliber and more than one will be HOF when all is said and done.

    When you compare the 58% success of WR picks in rd. 1 to 80% success picking OL in rd. 1 it does give you pause about my original point of Ozzie gaming the system. If you look at the relatively better chances of finding a late round receiver, I can understand picks like Campanaro and Moore.
    Last edited by Shas; 05-19-2017 at 01:48 PM.





  10. Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post
    Picking in round two and three has been an issue for Ozzie ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL, for many drafts now.

    Since we're talking about neglecting to gamble on first round wide receivers, it's only fair to compare that success rate to first round picks used on defensive players.

    In Ozzie's case, that would mean:

    Mosley
    Elam
    Ngata
    Suggs
    Reed
    McAlister
    Starks
    Boulware
    Lewis

    So that's one pick that failed to become a regular starter, or an 89% success rate drafting defense in the first round. Compared to the 58% league-wide success drafting first round wide receivers.

    The fact that the first round receiver list would include Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton and Breshard Perriman, I think you can conclude Ozzie's track record matches the league-wide averages, only even more pronounced.

    Really, the quality of his defensive picks more dramatic than that, because the standard I quoted from that ten-year study simply to establish themselves as a starter for half their career. Whereas most of these defensive picks for Ozzie were Pro-Bowl caliber and more than one will be HOF when all is said and done.

    When you compare the 58% success of WR picks in rd. 1 to 80% success picking OL in rd. 1 it does give you pause about my original point of Ozzie gaming the system. If you look at the relatively better chances of finding a late round receiver, I can understand picks like Campanaro and Moore.
    That wasn't my point. I'm well aware of Ozzie's success in the 1st round. But why do you think he keeps missing in the 2nd and 3rd lately? Because for one, he keeps grabbing these defensive "steals" that fall for a reason, a reason that ultimately leads to them being a bust.
    Because he overrates defensive players, and thus underrates offensive players. So, he passes on offensive guys who become starters or better because they aren't as high on his board because he places the defensive guys higher on his board than they should be.

    And no, I'm not expecting every pick to pan out. But he's whiffed on every 2nd round defensive pick since 2010 when he selected Mt. Busty, I mean Cody. And the only 3rd rounder, so far since 2010, who's been a hit is BWill, which I guess is in line with the norm for 3rd rounders. But look at how many of these defensive "steals" have been anything but: Kindle, Upshaw, Elam, A. Brown, Jernigan, and so far C. Davis. And yes, technically Upshaw and Jernigan weren't busts, but they were disappointments which is why they're no longer here.

    Maybe if we showed more diversity in who we draft in the early rounds, say a WR here or there besides Perriman, then we would've hit on 1 or 2 of these offensive picks taken in place of these defensive ones.

    As good as Ozzie has been in the 1st round, he's been that bad in the 2nd & 3rd, and it's one of the main reasons this team is now mired in mediocrity.One or two hits in those 2 rounds would've made a difference.





  11. #191

    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by usmccharles View Post
    With his injury history I would not of been happy with that move. I believe BP can contest catches very well, just need him and Joe get the redzone chemistry down
    How? When he threw to Pitta 16 times in the last game. I figure he would let BP get a few looks and build off from last season


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  12. #192
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    Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    I'm going to go against the grain and say that not treating WR as a top team priority is generally OK. You can win without game-breaking WRs.

    But you can't de-prioritize WR, OL, and RB ALL, as the Ravens have. Plenty of teams won Super Bowls with pass-catchers who were just good enough. But IMO OL is the bedrock of a football team. With it, your QB has time to find SOMEONE who will eventually get open, especially if the defense is sneaking a safety up because you're also running the ball well. With a bad OL you have constant 3 and outs, a tired defense, and a team that can't answer the inevitable busted coverage or STs TD.

    It's no coincidence that the Ravens' rag-tag approach to the OL in recent years has translated to overall horrible offensive production--and a disappointing W-L record.
    They used their top pick last year on Oline, plus a 4th. Used two picks this year
    World Domination 3 Points at a Time!





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