The Blown Fourth Quarter Leads Project

**The Excellector** · 10-21-2016, 03:03 PM

I recently made a statement that it would not surprise me if the Ravens had dealt with more blown fourth quarter leads during Pees' tenure than from 2000 up to his hiring combined, and that the only way it'd be close would be thanks to Pops Mattison. So, I have decided to go year by year, periodically through the day, to get to the truth.

I just completed the year 2000, where there were 4 losses, but 0 blown 4th quarter leads.

**TL24x7** · 10-21-2016, 03:05 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

I recently made a statement that it would not surprise me if the Ravens had dealt with more blown fourth quarter leads during Pees' tenure than from 2000 up to his hiring combined, and that the only way it'd be close would be thanks to Pops Mattison. So, I have decided to go year by year, periodically through the day, to get to the truth.

I just completed the year 2000, where there were 4 losses, but 0 blown 4th quarter leads.

Would love to shape your findings into an article.

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 10-21-2016, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

I recently made a statement that it would not surprise me if the Ravens had dealt with more blown fourth quarter leads during Pees' tenure than from 2000 up to his hiring combined, and that the only way it'd be close would be thanks to Pops Mattison. So, I have decided to go year by year, periodically through the day, to get to the truth.

I just completed the year 2000, where there were 4 losses, but 0 blown 4th quarter leads.

I certainly remember some awful blown leads, but I'd bet you are right about that. I do think though that a lot of that was due to having 2 elite HOF players on defense in their prime as opposed to this great defensive coordinators calling games...heck, a couple of those years were with the likes of Mike Nolan.

**Jsmoove** · 10-21-2016, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

I recently made a statement that it would not surprise me if the Ravens had dealt with more blown fourth quarter leads during Pees' tenure than from 2000 up to his hiring combined, and that the only way it'd be close would be thanks to Pops Mattison. So, I have decided to go year by year, periodically through the day, to get to the truth.

I just completed the year 2000, where there were 4 losses, but 0 blown 4th quarter leads.

this is interesting for sure Ex. the problem you are going to run into though is the talent then as the talent now which will skew your findings a bit, by how much well it depends on who interprets them.

**Ravenswintitle** · 10-21-2016, 03:39 PM

There is data out there if you look, such as this: https://brickwallblitz.wordpress.com...rom-2011-2014/

I think this year, Chargers are by far the worst team in terms of blown leads. It's more common than you think in the league, it happens every week to several teams.

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 10-21-2016, 03:39 PM

Please make an article about it.

This forum is bomping, but the following of RSR extends beyond the forum and these types of articles are FANTASTIC for people to read and I know they are extremely well received (that's why I started doing my own articles) - plus it's fun.

So yes, share an article. Or if you want you can share your findings with a writer, they can shape it into an article and give you a shoutout. I've seen others do that as well.

**GOTA** · 10-21-2016, 03:39 PM

Looking forward to it Excellector. Thats a good project

**TxRavensFan** · 10-21-2016, 03:53 PM

Originally Posted by Jsmoove

this is interesting for sure Ex. the problem you are going to run into though is the talent then as the talent now which will skew your findings a bit, by how much well it depends on who interprets them.

This is a very valid point. For instance, how do you compare a secondary with guys like CMac/Starks/Rolle/Reed in their primes to one starting Kendrick Lewis, Tray Walker, Will Hill and Jimmy Smith? If the latter group is more likely to give up at td throw to blow a 4th quarter lead, how much of that is coaching vs. talent?

**saintmatthew** · 10-21-2016, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

I recently made a statement that it would not surprise me if the Ravens had dealt with more blown fourth quarter leads during Pees' tenure than from 2000 up to his hiring combined, and that the only way it'd be close would be thanks to Pops Mattison. So, I have decided to go year by year, periodically through the day, to get to the truth.

I just completed the year 2000, where there were 4 losses, but 0 blown 4th quarter leads.

On the other hand, pre-Flacco they sometimes had issues getting a 4th quarter lead to blow in the first place.

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 10-21-2016, 04:01 PM

I will say this (cause I've done this already), when some of you get these results, it's laughably bad for Pees.

**Flacco's_Haircut** · 10-21-2016, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by TxRavensFan

This is a very valid point. For instance, how do you compare a secondary with guys like CMac/Starks/Rolle/Reed in their primes to one starting Kendrick Lewis, Tray Walker, Will Hill and Jimmy Smith? If the latter group is more likely to give up at td throw to blow a 4th quarter lead, how much of that is coaching vs. talent?

At the same time, the game has evolved to the point where there's more scoring and the passing game has been more facilitated over time. Maybe a blown lead vs league average would be a better way to really see where we stand, although stats like these are an imperfect science with all the variables going into it (ie. a team with Peyton Manning in his prime is probably not going to be blowing many 4th quarter leads no matter who is playing defense).

**Jsmoove** · 10-21-2016, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by TxRavensFan

This is a very valid point. For instance, how do you compare a secondary with guys like CMac/Starks/Rolle/Reed in their primes to one starting Kendrick Lewis, Tray Walker, Will Hill and Jimmy Smith? If the latter group is more likely to give up at td throw to blow a 4th quarter lead, how much of that is coaching vs. talent?

there's really not a comparison to make one unit is far superior to other talent wise. I think this project is a tall order because you have to look at players and coaching; talent of players and talent of coaching and how do you measure that? You know me Tex I could care less for pees but if you give him a Ray in his prime, Reed in his prime, Suggs in his prime, Jamie Sharper, Boulware, Mcrary, Woodson, Bart Scott, Jarrett Johnson in his prime, Sam, Goose..there is just too much talent to lay that at the feet of coaching on blown 4th qrtr leads to date...But I am interested in his findings.