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  1. #13
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available



    I personally think all this talk of trading with the Titans is silly because I just don't see the Ravens being interested in trading the pick if Tunsil is there, definitely not for just 15 and 33. They've made it very clear they are not at all pleased with Monroe and if you, as most I think do, believe last year was an aberration, they are not going to have another chance any time soon to get a *potential* premier LT this cheap for the next five years, which is also five years of Flacco's prime. I think it would have to be a really, really sweet deal for them to make a deal in that scenario, and 15/33 is not sweet enough.





  2. #14
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post
    The way I'm looking at it is that there is a possibility that Jack could slip as far as 15 and Spence could be available at 33. I think Jack AND Spence could potentially bring much more to the team than anyone that would be available at #6.

    Sent from my N817 using Tapatalk
    Thats definitely a boom or bust top of the draft but if it booms.... WOW. Sub in Nkemndiche in for Spence..... same thing.
    They hate us..... but they want to BE us. (.... or at least poach all our players/coaches/FO people!) :respect





  3. #15
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    I think if you look at the Ravens' 1st round drafting history you find that they've done very, very well picking at #18 or above: Travis Taylor is the only obvious bust, Starks is a "meh", the rest excellent (Ogden, Boulware, McAlister, JaLewis, Sizzle, Ngata, Joe, Mosley). At ##19-32 the history is spotty: Ray, Ed, Heap, Grubbs & Jimmy, but also Boller, Clayton, Oher, Elam & Perriman. Roughly a 80% success rate vs 50%. (The cut point, FYI, is between Flacco @#18 and Boller @#19.) The real weak spot of this franchise has been round 2: DeRon Jenkins, Sharper, Herring, Patrick Johnson, Gary Baxter, Anthony Weaver, Dwan Edwards, Dan Cody, Chris Chester, Rice, Kruger, Kindle, TCody, Torrey, Upshaw, KO, Arthur Brown, Jernigan, Maxx. Even counting Timmy & Maxx, that's maybe 7/19 or 36.8%.

    ETA: Which yields an estimated chance of ~60% of getting at least one pretty decent player out of 2 picks in round 2 (P = 1 - (12/19)x(12/19) = 0.601). So essentially #15, #33/43 & #45 would be equivalent to getting one high & one low 1st round pick.
    Last edited by lobachevsky; 04-28-2016 at 05:33 PM.
    Tutto dentro lo Stato, niente fuori lo Stato, niente contro lo Stato. (Benito Mussolini, 9.XII.1928)

    Everything according to The Plan, nothing that isn't in The Plan, nothing that contradicts The Plan. (Bisciotti/Oz/Harbs--the Natty BOH Troika)





  4. #16

    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    They interviewed Tunsils coach on ESPN. He also coached Michael Oher. He said that Oher was the better run blocker but Tunsil better at pass blocking. Then they were talking about Ramsey. Great physical skills but lacks football instincts so he's often out of position.

    Sent from my N817 using Tapatalk





  5. #17

    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by Rxdoxx View Post
    I'm on record as wanting more namely the 1st rounder in 2017 ... value goes out the window when we are trading out of elite range
    Tenn got so much for the #1 pick it is laughable for them to get back to 6 for only their 2nd (and pocketing an additional 2 seconds and a 2017 1st and 3rd

    If I were Tenn I'd do #15 and #33 for #6 in a New York Minute.

    Effectively moving from 1 to 6 for and gaining #43, #45, #76 and 2017 1st and 3rd
    Why would they require so much to move down and expect us to let them move back for a relative pittance? To quite possibly get the player they were targeting in the first place?
    They would be laughing at us for years.
    I'm kinda with you on this act although I can see the rational of taking the deal Filmstudy presents.
    At minimum though, if Tunsil is sitting there at #6 I'm taking every second of that clock in attempt to bait Tenn. (or anybody else) into coughing up that 2017 #1.
    Will Die A Ravens Fan!!





  6. #18

    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    While I would agree it should take more just the #33 (and said so in another thread), there's no way IMO Tenn is giving up a 2017 1st. After all, the Titans were willing to pass on Tunsil to get that 1st round pick (amongst others), so why would they give that one back to take him 5 spots later?

    I think the best we could ask for is the #33 and their 3rd.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    “Talk's cheap - let’s go play.” - #19, Johnny Unitas

    Follow me on Twitter @ravenssalarycap





  7. #19

    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by B-more Ravor View Post
    While I would agree it should take more just the #33 (and said so in another thread), there's no way IMO Tenn is giving up a 2017 1st. After all, the Titans were willing to pass on Tunsil to get that 1st round pick (amongst others), so why would they give that one back to take him 5 spots later?

    I think the best we could ask for is the #33 and their 3rd.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I am not saying this is true, but MAYBE they thought that Jack or someone else who is rumored to be falling would be there when they traded back, but now they are re-thinking who they thought was the "safe" pick at that position and want to move back up to get a different guy.





  8. #20
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by B-more Ravor View Post
    While I would agree it should take more just the #33 (and said so in another thread), there's no way IMO Tenn is giving up a 2017 1st. After all, the Titans were willing to pass on Tunsil to get that 1st round pick (amongst others), so why would they give that one back to take him 5 spots later?

    I think the best we could ask for is the #33 and their 3rd.
    My only thought there is, Yes they were willing to give up Tunsil and drop back to 15
    But if Tunsil is there and they can move back up and get him there is some hope .... like the higher of the 1sts in 2017 so they keep the lowest number

    I really don't want to see us trading out of both the 1st grouping and the 2nd grouping, which I believe trading back to 15 will do

    I won't be real happy if we give up 6 for 15 and 33 ..... 2 is not better than 1 when elite skills are at stake
    Kindle (Cody) and Dickson wasn't worth it, Upshaw (KO) and Gino wasn't worth it
    Course we can say that was the pickers fault, not the traders .... but the fact is we have missed in the 2nd round a bunch recently (Arthur Brown traded up to get)

    So your best we could ask for is probably an accurate assessment of the best we could expect to get, but it scares me.
    at one point of my life I was exactly Pi years old





  9. #21

    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by B-more Ravor View Post
    While I would agree it should take more just the #33 (and said so in another thread), there's no way IMO Tenn is giving up a 2017 1st. After all, the Titans were willing to pass on Tunsil to get that 1st round pick (amongst others), so why would they give that one back to take him 5 spots later?

    I think the best we could ask for is the #33 and their 3rd.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I think that you're right, a 2017 #1 is a stretch. However, I'd be upset if the bidding for #6 starts at #15, 33, and 64.

    It really comes down to how special you think Tunsil or Ramsey is. If they are simply ordinary #6 selections, then you might be happy taking ordinary value. However, Tunsil is a tremendous value at #6 still on the board due primarily to the 2 QB selections. Brian, you've pegged the value of the selection at approximately 1,900 points (sum of values for 15 + 33 + 64). That's the equivalent of pick # 3.75. I say Tunsil's pick value is 3.5 or better.

    I'll say this...if the Ravens trade down from #6 for #15, 33 and anything worse than 64, I think it's an indication they are concerned about some of the off field allegations made about Tunsil.


    Follow me on Twitter @filmstudyravens





  10. #22
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post
    There is no guarantee that either Tunsil or Ramsey will be a better player three years from now than whomever is chosen at #15 and #33.Neither is a can't miss and there are numerous busts every year chosen in round 1.

    I would take what would essentially be two of the top 33 for #6. Not that big of a drop off in talent.

    Sent from my N817 using Tapatalk
    You can make that argument every year and not take 1st round picks. The Seahawks haven't picked in the 1st round since 2012. Obviously they believe exactly what you posted





  11. #23
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by Filmstudy View Post
    No, I'd want #15, 33, and 45 and settle for #15, 43, and 45. My reasoning is this:

    1. The Titans had #1 and were poised to take Tunsil.
    2. They moved down and raped the Rams in the process for an as-yet-to-be-determined value, but extraordinary haul of picks.
    3. They presumably still want Tunsil or Stanley to protect last year's investment.
    4. Tunsil would go no worse than the top 4 picks had this prisoner's dilemma game not started with the QBs.
    5. If you say Tunsil's value is pick 3.5, which I think is conservative, he's suddenly a very similar chart value (2000 points) to 15 + 43 + 45 (2020 points by PFT)
    We could throw in Monroe and ask for a bag of balls as well.





  12. #24
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    Re: #6 is worth more than #15 + #33 if Tunsil or Ramsey is available

    Quote Originally Posted by B-more Ravor View Post
    While I would agree it should take more just the #33 (and said so in another thread), there's no way IMO Tenn is giving up a 2017 1st. After all, the Titans were willing to pass on Tunsil to get that 1st round pick (amongst others), so why would they give that one back to take him 5 spots later?

    I think the best we could ask for is the #33 and their 3rd.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I was thinking the 33 and their 4th.
    Disclaimer: The content posted is of my own opinion.

    RIP #25





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