"If (Fill in the blank) happens, I'm going to be pissed"- Draft Edition.

[BcRaven]

I would absolutely take Jaylon Smith with that first 4th round pick.

In my opinion, the 4th is the round that he goes, and he won't make it to the back end of the round.

Worth the gamble. Smith was in the conversation for the #1 overall prior to his knee injury. Roll the dice.

I know I'm repeating myself, but why pass on a player (like LBs Brothers or Perry, WRs Peake or Higgins, C Glasgow, DE Tapper, etc.) to take a guy who definately won't play in 2016, and is a ? in 2017. Leave that for the 6th round or UDFA... Bc

[Ghost]

I know I'm repeating myself, but why pass on a player (like LBs Brothers or Perry, WRs Peake or Higgins, C Glasgow, etc.) to take a guy who definately won't play in 2016, and is a ? in 2017... Bc

Because it's not JUST about 2016. You hope every pick is a contributor right away, but at the same time it's not solely about 2016 when you draft.

Jaylon Smith, you can go ahead and give in to every doubt you might have and validate yourself for these reasons to pass on him at any point in the draft in any round. But at the same time if you believe he can be healthy in 2017 and a full time contributor at 2018. You ask yourself: who's the better prospect than at pick 70 or pick 104?

I just think Jaylon Smith if healthy is a top 10 player regardless of draft class these next three years. You have to take that risk, IMO at Pick 70 or 104.

[HotInHere]

In addressing all of this and anyone who says that spending a pick on Jaylon Smith in the 3rd or 4th round is a waste...

Okay, you can't look at an entire draft class and simply just ask yourself, "what impact can every pick give me in 2016?" When you're picking at 6 and at 36 that's totally applicable. We are talking about high value picks.
You shouldn't view draft picks with such a "short-sightedness" though. Not at least your entire draft class. When you're looking at players between rounds 3 and 5. You want guys who can either plug in as rotational guys or guys who are projects for the long term. Jaylon Smith is a long-term project that is worth the risk because of his upside and his potential rate of return within his 4 year rookie deal...

You make good points, and I get your argument. I just still don't agree with it.

There are question marks with any pick. Even if Smith were fully healthy, there is always the potential that he could be a complete bust. The NFL landscape is littered with can't-miss prospects who missed in a big way.

Now of course his ceiling is incredibly high. You could have a DPOY in two or three seasons, and that's why you're advocating taking him. But for my fourth round picks, for this team with so many holes, I'd rather have a guy who I have a pretty high level of confidence that he could be a solid contributor. A situational pass rusher; a nickel back; a swing-tackle; a rotational d-lineman. All of these are spots that could develop into starters down the road. And there is a lot of value there.

Buck Allen, Z Smith, Brent Urban, Juice -- these are all fourth rounders who are contributing on our team right now. I'll be happy if we can get that level of return for our fourth round picks. I look at Smith, and all I can think of is Anthony Poindexter. I'd take a late-round flier on him, but we need our fourth-round picks too much to take a chance on a guy who might have a permanent physical disability.

[Rxdoxx]

I know I'm repeating myself, but why pass on a player (like LBs Brothers or Perry, WRs Peake or Higgins, C Glasgow, etc.) to take a guy who definately won't play in 2016, and is a ? in 2017... Bc

If we have the room to do it,
it is rare for all draft picks to make the team especially when we are drafting 9-10-11 and finding UDFA (Marlon, Morgan, Justin, LaQuan...)
So I can see rolling the dice as a future investment....
that is why I can't see a 4th though ... a 4th should be able to play/contribute
our lack of late round picks however supports your stand of why pass on a player now ....
but for me I'd still like to roll the dice with a 6th

[lovefootball]

Even if that's the case, I highly doubt Ozzie uses a 3rd or high 4th on speculation. Plus what kind of player do you get in 2017 after a full year+ of rehab? IMO he probably, if he plays again at all, won't be NFL ready until 2018. Use one of our 6ths OK, but not anything higher than that... Bc

Ravens already have a player that fits that scenario. SMH. If he's still there in the 6th round, other teams have the same thoughts on drafting him. Does Ozzie take that chance on him, I think not. FO has to make this draft better then any of the last several years. His reputation needs a boost on his draft history. Ravens can't gamble on the hope of smith for the 2017 season. Ravens have been hoping on several players to finally get healthy and play a full season.

Injuries have been part of the excuse for several seasons, hopefully the ravens newest ideas on cutting down injuries helps out. Why start a season with a draft pick that won't play until 2017. SMH

[saintmatthew]

I've been saying for four months Ravens take Jaylon Smith in third and I'm still sticking with that prediction.


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[Doctor]

I know I'm repeating myself, but why pass on a player (like LBs Brothers or Perry, WRs Peake or Higgins, C Glasgow, DE Tapper, etc.) to take a guy who definately won't play in 2016, and is a ? in 2017. Leave that for the 6th round or UDFA... Bc

Because none if the players you just listed are as good as a healthy Jaylon Smith, and Smith isn't going to be available in the 6th round.

[BcRaven]

Because none if the players you just listed are as good as a healthy Jaylon Smith.

Right, but he isn't healthy, is he? ... Bc

[Ghost]

Right, but he isn't healthy, is he? ... Bc

As fans, with our general impatient ways, I totally get what you're saying.

But you don't get to be who the Ravens are today viewing a draft class's "grade" or impact after that class's rookie year. You examine the strength of that draft class after between Year 3 and 4 of that class.
Smith may not be healthy right now, but if he's healthy next season. You're arguably getting a top 3-5 prospect from this draft class, and if healthy is arguably a top 5-6 draft prospect in the 2017 draft class as well, as a mid 3rd rounder this year. That's worth it. The Ravens' front office should be focused and confident on nailing impact players with players at pick 6 and 36, so that way they can take the risk of the immense upside Smith with that 3rd round pick to be the grand slam for this draft class as well as any other benefits this draft class may present.

[TxRavensFan]

In addressing all of this and anyone who says that spending a pick on Jaylon Smith in the 3rd or 4th round is a waste...

If I were Jaylon Smith, and there's a good chance that I fully recover, I very well might skip this draft (where it's doubtful I'd go higher than the 3rd round), since I'm not playing in 2016. I would then enter the draft in '17 fully healed and up my chances of going in round 1 and making a whole lot more money than I would on a 3rd or 4th round contract.

[houstonravensfan]

If we trade down more than 2-3 spots without getting a 2nd rounder this year or 1st next year, I'll be pissed.

If we don't take a pass rusher in the first 3 rounds, I'll be pissed.

If we actually use all 9 picks instead of using a few mid rounders to move up for someone we really like, I'll be pissed. 9 new guys are not making this roster.

If Myles Jack is on the board when we pick and pass on him due to nervousness about his knee, I will burn my house down.

+1 You read my mind. Thanks for saving me all the hunt-and-peck.

[houstonravensfan]

If we pick D 1-2-3 AGAIN, I'll be Peesed.