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  1. #1

    2016 Cap Situation

    So, while this season is not over, I wanted to take a look at our cap situation next year...especially since we have so much dead money this year.

    So we'll have 46 players under contract for about $136.9M.

    I'd assume the cap jumps to about $151M.

    I looked at Ravor's numbers and Spotrack and went with Ravors number if there was a discrepancy.

    So assume with the rule of 51, we tender EFA's UEFA's at the 750k min, That would take us to around $140M

    Assuming we re-sign Yanda and Tuker...let's give Yanda a $3.5 million cap hit and Tucker a $2 million cap hit, that would knock out about $5.5M - probably about $2 million under the rule of 51.

    $143M

    Rookies probably will count for about $3-3.5 million or so in real cap space...so just the basics without restructures we probably will be facing around $5 million or so in cap space.

    So. Where from here? Obviously Joe needs to be restructured and Sr and Canty will be gone. So that will free up some space. Here are some of our higher cap numbers and potential savings.

    Remember though, if you are saying to cut player A, remember that player needs to be replaced! At minimum by a minimum salaried guy.

    You can look up your own info here.

    http://russellstreetreport.com/salar...tract-details/

    http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/cap/2016/

    Flacco obviously has the highest cap number at $28M. We need to be able to free up as much as possible while keeping in mind that we will have to restructure every year until the last one...and each restructure will raise future cap numbers. I will not bother mentioning his dead money as there is no way he's not here next year obviously.

    Second highest cap number. Jimmy Smith at $9.6M. Frankly, IMHO, that is scary to me as he hasn't played up to that number and his injury is apparently still an issue. But again, he'll be here next year so not bothering with dead money.

    Third highest cap number. Ladarius Webb at $9.5M. UGH! Unfortunately, it would have been very easy to let him go prior to his restructure this offseason...we would have saved about $6M in space. Now...we'd only save about $3.5M. Do we still let him go? Is it worth it?

    Fourth highest cap number. Eugene Monroe at $8.7M. Clearly we have not been getting proper return for his contract. Again though, cutting him won't create much room...only about 600k. Worth it? Not IMHO when we don't have a replacement.

    Fifth highest cap number. Sizzle at $7.45M. Aging, 2 very bad injuries in the last 4 years. Still productive, but at that cap number? We wouldn't get any relief though if we tried...he'd have a cap hit of $1.4 if let go after the year.

    Sixth Highest. Doom at $7.3M. Really good at what he does best...rush the passer. Not as good against the run and seems to wear down the more you ask him to do. Age is becoming a factor. But as far as pure pass rushers, he's terrific. IMHO, again, you have to keep him as we don't have a replacement. Would save $2.6M

    Seventh Highest. Pitta at $7.2M. Truly the one contract that is killing us and we all know why. We only save 600k, but it's time to cut bait after this season.

    The rest?

    Releasing Sr will create $3M (Don't forget to replace his cap number with a minimum salaried guy!)

    Canty will create $2M (Don't forget to replace his cap number with a minimum salaried guy!)

    Arrington will create $1.43M (Don't forget to replace his cap number with a minimum salaried guy!)

    D Smith will create $2.62M (Don't forget to replace his cap number with a minimum salaried guy!)

    Anybody else potentially on the bubble? Zuttah was a guy I would have looked at letting go, but we just restructured him (making it less profitable to let him go next year) and I don't know the effects on his cap numbers.

    I think I did this to see/show that we have some bad contracts still on the books...some guys are going out of their prime still getting prime money, some guys simply have not played up to their cap numbers, and some guys who've had injuries really diminish their value.

    By no means are we going to be strapped for space, but I think anybody thinking we are going to have a ton of room to get top UFA's...it's likely not happening. We need to get this cap situation under control.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.





  2. #2

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Flacco is the big one. They must find a way to get him around $20m without it going back up significantly in the near future. Without reducing Joe, the team will be in a tough spot next year and the yr after and all those who have been blaming his contract on the roster woes will finally have a legit point (for 2016 only).
    "A pessimist sees the difficult in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." – Winston Churchill





  3. #3
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    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Good summary -- thanks for doing the legwork.

    If I'm reading this right, you're letting all FAs walk except Tucker and Yanda. We can assume Urschel moving into LG for KO. But we'd have a lot of people to replace. Punter, backup QB, two WRs (Brown and Aiken) and Courtney Upshaw.

    Another note: $3.5MM for Yanda and $2MM for Tucker seem like steals to me. I haven't analyzed market value, and of course the contracts would be backloaded, but I would expect their numbers to be higher.

    The big-picture question here is whether we continue to try to improve through the draft while remaining competitive, or we blow it up and do a complete rebuild. The latter is something Bisciotti flat-out said he would never do. But looking at your list, and where the team is competitively right now, it looks kind of appealing to just part ways with SSr, Canty, Arrington, DSmith, Webb, and maybe Sizzle and/or Doom. Maybe even re-think Forsett and the safeties, Lewis, and Hill. Take your cap-hit medicine in 2016 while you give some young guys (Elam, Brooks, Brown, Campy) a final chance to prove themselves, and then retool for 2017.

    That "blow-it-up" option is appealing right now because things are so bad. But the reality is you're creating a lot of holes and outside of Joe Flacco, you don't have much to rebuild around.
    "Chin up, chest out."





  4. #4

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Quote Originally Posted by HotInHere View Post
    Good summary -- thanks for doing the legwork.

    If I'm reading this right, you're letting all FAs walk except Tucker and Yanda. We can assume Urschel moving into LG for KO. But we'd have a lot of people to replace. Punter, backup QB, two WRs (Brown and Aiken) and Courtney Upshaw.

    Another note: $3.5MM for Yanda and $2MM for Tucker seem like steals to me. I haven't analyzed market value, and of course the contracts would be backloaded, but I would expect their numbers to be higher.

    The big-picture question here is whether we continue to try to improve through the draft while remaining competitive, or we blow it up and do a complete rebuild. The latter is something Bisciotti flat-out said he would never do. But looking at your list, and where the team is competitively right now, it looks kind of appealing to just part ways with SSr, Canty, Arrington, DSmith, Webb, and maybe Sizzle and/or Doom. Maybe even re-think Forsett and the safeties, Lewis, and Hill. Take your cap-hit medicine in 2016 while you give some young guys (Elam, Brooks, Brown, Campy) a final chance to prove themselves, and then retool for 2017.

    That "blow-it-up" option is appealing right now because things are so bad. But the reality is you're creating a lot of holes and outside of Joe Flacco, you don't have much to rebuild around.
    Yeah, it's a real light assumption because the other UFA's I'm not sure if they are res-signed nor are they critical. Brown and Aiken I thought were EFA's or RFA'...I'd assume they are retained and given minimum.

    The cap numbers for Tuck and Yanda would simply be first year cap numbers...Like most other big contracts we've signed guys too, they would both go up significantly in 2017. Much like how Jimmy's cap number this year is only $3.6M, but jumps up to $9.6 next year.

    I agree that some tough decisions may have to be made. It's going to be hard...you want to still field the best team they can, but some of these contracts simply are not benefiting the team right now.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.





  5. #5

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    The future does look quite grim as far as cap. We have a lot of money tied up in declining aged players. The FO three tons of money around to keep players, and while at the time it made sense, contracts like Webb, and Pitta have crippled us as we are obviously not getting the return. The team will have to alter its strategy on this going forward to be able to get back to the success from 2008-2012,2014

    Not to mention the players that are currently in contract years. KO, Tucker, Yanda, Givens, Will Davis?

    The team put far too much faith in luck that these players would return from injury, and play to their previous form. As fate would have it, they did not and now we are cap strapped, and thus get the product on the field that we are seeing this season. In my opinion, there is absolutely no reason to give Pitta that kind of contract coming off of that gruesome of an injury. Of course hind sight is 20/20. The biggest impact of this is the team not being able to sign quality depth, this show evident the past two season, even more so this year. How are we in the same boat with the secondary as last year?

    The Rice contract was a different story with a different ending, no need to delve into that again.

    Suggs was obviously worth his contract extension, he was back to playing at a high level. Unfortunately injuries are apart of the game, and the team is going to have to make the decision of is he worth this same contract when he returns. The product on the field will determine this obviously, but two Achilles tears may limit his production going forward. Does he become strictly a pass rusher.

    You also have the contract of young budding stars with Williams , and Wagner coming up due. Then Mosley, Jernigan, Gilmore, and taliaferro the following year.

    The Ravens Mantra has always been if a guy has outplayed his contract they will let him walk. However, they have proven to vastly overpay the players that do choose to stay. Is it a circumstance of the market value, possibly, but our past is finally starting to catch up with us.

    We are also now in the same boat that Pittsburgh was for so many years in having to constantly restructure Bens contract to stay competitive. We as fans can only hope that Joe will be as cooperative. We can either clean house, and pray for a great draft this next year, and hope that we can salvage a return on past draft picks
    Last edited by JCro; 10-13-2015 at 11:43 AM.





  6. #6
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    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    So basically, this team won't be sniffing the playoffs for another 2 years, unless they bring in VERY good bargain FAs and suddenly get better at drafting pass catchers, corners and also get a MLBer, and more OLine depth?





  7. #7
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    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Quote Originally Posted by JayJay View Post
    Flacco is the big one. They must find a way to get him around $20m without it going back up significantly in the near future. Without reducing Joe, the team will be in a tough spot next year and the yr after and all those who have been blaming his contract on the roster woes will finally have a legit point (for 2016 only).
    Definitely a good goal to have and one I think is achievable.
    Disclaimer: The content posted is of my own opinion.





  8. #8

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Quote Originally Posted by PGCountyRaven85 View Post
    So basically, this team won't be sniffing the playoffs for another 2 years, unless they bring in VERY good bargain FAs and suddenly get better at drafting pass catchers, corners and also get a MLBer, and more OLine depth?
    If you need to have a literally perfect team in order to sniff the playoffs, yes.

    If they do their usual retooling and make some good decisions next offseason, no.





  9. #9
    Join Date
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    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    It feels so disgusting to see this team struggling with all these draft busts, salary cap busts, no speed, no young playmakers, horrible defensive coordinator, etc, etc, etc. This is supposed to be an elite NFL franchise, not the fucking Redskins, Browns, Jaguars. Meanwhile, New England, Green Bay, Denver, Cincy, etc. continue to roll without skipping a beat. We have to start doing imitating what those teams are doing. They're always in contention!





  10. #10

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Well, I didn't post that to say our situation was bleek. We will be able to field a good team next year and could probably afford one big name guy if they really wanted to make it happen (and renegotiated Flacco's contract before the start of UFA).

    But it isn't as healthy as we'd like...we are still paying for a couple of bad contracts, namely Webbie and Pitta.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.





  11. #11

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Ray Rice, Dennis Pitta crippled the Ravens from a cap perspective pre-season.

    That meant not as much talent coming in and not as much talent on the roster as originally expected. The shit rolled down hill and required a bunch of other actions- Signing Forsett, drafting Boyle and Williams etc etc. Those decisions lead to other shortages...CB? WR? LB?

    The problem got even more compounded by injuries, further depleting the depth on the team and shining a light on the lack of talent on the roster.

    Suddenly this team had no depth at all.

    The fact that over 25% of our money players are unavailable is insane.

    Unsure the source that was being used, but I heard some stat on the radio this a.m. that said the ravens injuries relative to cap money are among the highest in the league...

    That's a tough season.

    For the remainder, I'm hoping we get a chance to see what some of these young guys have and put some effort into being a better team in 2016.





  12. #12

    Re: 2016 Cap Situation

    Jeff Zrebiec ‏@jeffzrebiecsun 55s55 seconds ago

    Ravens release both CB Rashaan Melvin and OLB Jason Babin.





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