Narrow the pick to three.

[GOTA]

I hear you about these two backs. And believe you when you say teams will put a higher value on them than we think. But when I try to put it in a bigger context of history, it's still hard for me to justify the picks.

What was the last time a running back came into the league as a rookie and blew the doors off the league? Peterson in '07?

Are these guys at that level? Both of them?

Maybe we should just conclude the last big swing and a miss for a highly drafted running back, Trent Richardson, was just an outlier.

But in the context of a decade or so of drafting he seems more the norm than the exception. Before him it was CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews in '10 when it comes to top-12 picks at RB who never lived up to expections. Then Knowshon Moreno. Darren McFadden and Jonathon Stewart. Reggie Bush. Ronnie Brown. Cedric Benson. Cadillac Williams.

These are all the top-12 picks, besides Peterson, who came into the league. You have to go back fifteen years to Jamal Lewis and LaDanian Tomlinson to find worthy picks up in this stratesphere.

I'm not saying Gordon and Gurley will be crummy running backs in the NFL. I'm just saying there's a reason why teams are drafting them later. Too little difference between the crop of backs who are taken anywhere in the first three rounds.

Anyway, I thought about Strong, too. But I had convinced myself that, like running back, the value for wideouts is in rounds 2-4. Whereas Peters and Johnson are better values in the bottom of round one.

If Peters and and Strong were both there at 26, which do you pick? Do you prefer Strong? Or for you was it a matter of Peters likely being off the board or off the Ravens board altogether?

It doesn't matter if either of the running backs actually make an impact. The draft is all about perception. I believe the perception will be that both Gurley and Gordon are special running backs which is why they'll be gone. The furthest I see Gurley falling is the Lions at #23 but I would not be shocked if the Falcons picked him at #8.

Gordon is a little different. I know there are some coaches who are just drooling over what they could do with him. Can they convince their GM to take him? I believe that's the case in Arizona. The key is perception though and not what they will do because no one really knows.

In terms of Strong vs. Peters I would lean more towards Strong but I think #26 is a little high for either of them in a better draft class. I only see 22 players of 1st round quality in this draft. Ray is one of them but Johnson, Strong and Peters are not. I'm really hoping Ray or one of the others falls to us at #26

[alienstar]

After dragging and sifting through the WR talent, and assuming neither of the top two RBs are there. I'm hoping the pick is Shane Ray. Its a value/need decision and I can't come up with much else. I like Randy Gregory, but too much boom/bust for me. He is small for the league and has too far to get where we would want him to play. He could be an extremely intriguing SS somewhere (IMO only), but I doubt the cover skills are there. It's Ray for me. Then somehow snag Maxx Williams. Once again we will have to gamble on WR help later. It's just not there unless OZ wants to trade the draft. Not happening.