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  1. The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...



    ...where the talent at WR tends to dry up in any draft.

    In 2010, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Shipley, Eric Decker, and Andre Roberts were picked in the 3rd round, from there the only talent left was Mike Williams (4th), Riley Cooper (5th), Antonio Brown (6th), and Danario Alexander (UFA).

    In 2011, Leonard Hankerson, Vincent Brown, and Jerrel Jernigan were picked in the 3rd round, from there the only talent left was Cecil Shorts (4th), Denarius Moore (5th), and Jeremy Kerley (5th).*

    In 2012, Mohamed Sanu and T.Y. Hilton were picked in the 3rd round, from there the only talent left was Travis Benjamin (4th), Jarius Wright (4th), Marvin Jones (5th), Cole Beasley (UFA), Jermaine Kearse (UFA), and possibly Jarrett Boykin (UFA).

    In 2013, Terrance Wiliams, Keenan Allen, Markus Wheaton were picked in the 3rd round, from there the only talent left was Ace Sanders (4th) and Kenny Stills (5th), and Marlon Brown (UFA).

    In 2014, Donte Moncrief and John Brown, were picked in the 3rd round, from there the only talent left was Martavis Bryant (4th), Michael Campanaro (7th), and Allen Hurns (UFA)**

    *In 2011, Niles Paul was drafted as a WR in the 5th, but bulked up and is now a TE/FB.
    **In 2014, Jared Abbrederis was drafted in the 5th, but he got hurt. Green Bay seems to be high on him though, but for now he's still an unknown.





  2. Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    I think this year the 4th round will have some guys worth looking at like Dres Anderson, Dezmin Lewis, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Bell, Titus Davis, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Smelter (could go in 3rd). Most of these guys either had an injury, small school but held their own at Senior Bowl, or they are criticized for their frame. But they all can play.





  3. #3
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    The draft is a crap shoot, especially at WR. Take any of those five drafts, and there are plenty of WR busts in the first three rounds as well.





  4. Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    The draft is a crap shoot, especially at WR. Take any of those five drafts, and there are plenty of WR busts in the first three rounds as well.
    There are fewer WRs taken in the first 3 rounds who are outright busts than compared to the number that don't pan out taken in the later rounds. Your odds of drafting a starting caliber WR are considerably higher if that WR is picked in the first 3 rounds. You can also get slot WRs in the 3rd-4th rounds, though again, you're more likely to find one in the 3rd or the very top of the 4th than later. Antonio Brown and Julian Edelman are rare exceptions to this reality.





  5. #5

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by PerpetuallyBored74 View Post
    There are fewer WRs taken in the first 3 rounds who are outright busts than compared to the number that don't pan out taken in the later rounds. Your odds of drafting a starting caliber WR are considerably higher if that WR is picked in the first 3 rounds. You can also get slot WRs in the 3rd-4th rounds, though again, you're more likely to find one in the 3rd or the very top of the 4th than later. Antonio Brown and Julian Edelman are rare exceptions to this reality.
    We knocked this around the boards going into the 2013 draft IIRC: unless you're catching a falling star, a 1st round WR is risky compared to a 2nd or 3rd, but from the 4th on, you're more or less grabbing camp bodies b/c UDFA value >> 4th round value.

    Oddly enough, again IIRC, the same holds with OTs.
    I think what I found was that UDFA value >> 4th through 7th round value *combined*.
    Rick Wagner would chuckle at this but this was 2013 and he hadn't seen the field yet.

    Adding: As I've begun to stack them, my line of demarcation is Smelter and Austin Hill in the bottom of the 3rd, Greene and Lippett in the top of the 4th.

    My rankings are always based upon talent, not where I think they will be drafted.
    Last edited by BigPlayReceiver; 04-19-2015 at 08:27 AM.
    "The Ravens are not taking Jimmy Smith at 26!" -- Me, the day before the 2011 Draft

    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the 2015 Draft

    BP '17 (post Maclin rev): 65 of 115 for 1050 and 8

    @BigPlayReceiver





  6. #6
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    In general, any pick after rd 3 is, IMO, the dividing line.

    Rd 3 and higher = true investment.

    Rd 4 and lower - hope and pray





  7. #7
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    With the departure of Torrey Smith, and even with the Ravens BPA (BGA to Trap) philosophy, I do believe we will have a new WR in Baltimore between the 1st and 3rd rounds. Flacco's talent/arm strength needs a young go-to receiver for our offense to be dangerous... Bc





  8. #8
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    I almost guarntee we draft a WR in the first 3. I just hope we dont have to reach. Hope its a move up in the second to get the guy you want if in the 1st someone falls.





  9. #9
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by PerpetuallyBored74 View Post
    There are fewer WRs taken in the first 3 rounds who are outright busts than compared to the number that don't pan out taken in the later rounds. Your odds of drafting a starting caliber WR are considerably higher if that WR is picked in the first 3 rounds.
    That statement is true of every position in the NFL, with the possible exception of kicker.





  10. #10
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    In general, any pick after rd 3 is, IMO, the dividing line.

    Rd 3 and higher = true investment.

    Rd 4 and lower - hope and pray
    I feel like it's one round lower...

    4th & higher are players they think can / will contribute in year one or two.

    5th & lower are developmental guys they like who they HOPE will take that next step and contribute down the road.





  11. #11
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    The draft is a crap shoot, especially at WR. Take any of those five drafts, and there are plenty of WR busts in the first three rounds as well.
    Yup. Was just reading an article on Rex Ryan. Last year the Jets took two WRs in the 4th round... then Pitt took Martavis Bryant. He was on the board for the Jet picks, they just picked the wrong guys...
    World Domination 3 Points at a Time!





  12. #12
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor View Post
    I feel like it's one round lower...

    4th & higher are players they think can / will contribute in year one or two.

    5th & lower are developmental guys they like who they HOPE will take that next step and contribute down the road.
    I mean obviously there are 3 round before the 4th and 3 after. So wherever you want to draw the line, end of 3rd (aka start of 4th), middle of 4th, end of 4th, so be it.

    One way or another the 4th rd is involved.





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