Gauging Forsett's Value

[Paintballguy]

Yeah and that's biting us in the ass.

You're suggesting dumping more money into a position where we got Pro Bowl production from a veteran minimum salary. Hopefully Forsett isn't a hot commodity on the open market and he comes back on a fairly cheap deal.

I don't think Forsett will draw a high contract. Teams just don't pay RB's anymore. Especially 29 year old ones.

[wickedsolo]

Forsett will be lucky to get a 3 year deal from anyone, including the Ravens. He is a good player, but he is small and plays an extremely physical position. How much longer can the Ravens truly expect him to produce at 5.4 yards per clip?

I'm not saying let him walk. What I am saying is let the guy walk if he wants a fairly substantial deal.

Odds are Taliaferro would have rattled off 1,000+ yards as well had he been the feature back.

[JAB1985]

Odds are Taliaferro would have rattled off 1,000+ yards as well had he been the feature back.

I dont doubt that at all.

[Mark]

I think Forsett is too good of an asset to let go because he has what is so rare: vision and intelligence. He isn't a physical freak, he just allows the offensive line to do its job and follows his blocks perfectly. Not even Rice was that smart of a runner (remember him and Vonte getting into arguments cuz he couldn't follow his blocking?).

When you've got a line this good, a good FB, a good blocking TE (Gilmore), and good blocking receivers (Senior, Marlon), his age doesn't seem to be as much of a hindrance.

I believe that this is the correct analysis of Forsett's value. He has the unique skill set needed to maximize Kubiak's zone stretch runs: vision, patience, one cut burst and decision making. I disagree with those who think Rice, Pierce or Taliaferro could have come close to 5.4 YPC in the 2014 season. This skill set is not of particular value to any team not running a a zone stretch scheme but it is to the Ravens. Also, he can pass protect and will catch more balls in Trestman's offense. We got the best out of Flacco, in large part, because we finally had a dependable running game. Forsett won't be offered a big contract by anyone but to let him go if he will cost around $3M/year without knowing who will replace his production is a risk I would not be willing to take. If he has a similar year, he would be worth every penny.

[Hammerhead]

I believe that this is the correct analysis of Forsett's value. He has the unique skill set needed to maximize Kubiak's zone stretch runs: vision, patience, one cut burst and decision making. I disagree with those who think Rice, Pierce or Taliaferro could have come close to 5.4 YPC in the 2014 season. This skill set is not of particular value to any team not running a a zone stretch scheme but it is to the Ravens. Also, he can pass protect and will catch more balls in Trestman's offense. We got the best out of Flacco, in large part, because we finally had a dependable running game. Forsett won't be offered a big contract by anyone but to let him go if he will cost around $3M/year without knowing who will replace his production is a risk I would not be willing to take. If he has a similar year, he would be worth every penny.

Question is: is there production risk with Forsett now that Kubiak is gone?

[Ngata Da Vida]

I think his value can be gauged on what Trestman thinks that Taliafero (and perhaps even Pierce, though I doubt it) can do in the system. Forsett's value would decrease if Taliafero becomes a workhorse.

[DC Raven]

Question is: is there production risk with Forsett now that Kubiak is gone?

I don't think so. Same O-line, same OL coach, and a new OC who runs a system of the same school. I do believe we will see slightly less running, but I expect our ground game to be just as effective.

I do hope we bring Forsett back. It surprises me how undervalued he is by many fans on here.

[wickedsolo]

Question is: is there production risk with Forsett now that Kubiak is gone?

I think there is production risk for anyone with Kubes leaving.

Factoring in Trestman is more of an aerial play caller out of gun, I'd imagine any back is going to see a decrease in yards on the ground. However, he does like to pass to backs out of the backfield, so there would likely be an increase there.

[GOTA]

I think there is production risk for anyone with Kubes leaving.

Factoring in Trestman is more of an aerial play caller out of gun, I'd imagine any back is going to see a decrease in yards on the ground. However, he does like to pass to backs out of the backfield, so there would likely be an increase there.

That's also why having a back who can pass block becomes even more important. That's something Forsett was very good at last year.

[B-more Ravor]

According to sources, because he was on a minimum salary benefit contract, he isn’t eligible to sign a multi-year deal with Baltimore until free agency begins in March.

This is true, the CBA prohibits an extension in his case.

That said, there's nothing stopping them from agreeing to a deal and then signing it on March 10th at 4:01 pm.

I'd guess a 3yr/$9M deal (maybe a little less) is around value, $3M bonus with base salaries of $1M, $2M and $3M (which he's likely to never see). Would give a 2015 Cap number of $2M in 2015 and $3M in 2016.

[BlackBeak]

Question is: is there production risk with Forsett now that Kubiak is gone?

Risk is there but you have to weigh in what we know. We know he is the one who won the job last year in the same system because he had the best vision in the system to read cuts and as GOTA pointed out, and I hope no one dismisses, he made some great blocks against some big players. He's really a key piece to Joe's success because he gives the fake ligitimacy. You have to start with what you know works and consider that anyone you bring in as a replacement has greater uncertainty.