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  1. #1
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    AFC Team Rankings - Week 15

    INTRODUCTION:

    The top six rankings are CURRENT projected playoff seeds. The projected final win-loss records are posted to the right of the current ones (neglecting the bottom four teams). Below the rankings, after comments, you will find my assessment of what needs to happen for the Baltimore Ravens to clinch a playoff berth.

    1. New England Patriots (10-3) (13-3)
    2. Denver Broncos (10-3) (12-4)
    3. Indianapolis Irsays (9-4) (11-5)
    4. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) (11-5)
    5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) (10-6)
    6. San Diego Chargers (8-5) (10-6)
    -----------------------------------------------------
    7. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) (9-6-1)
    8. Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) (9-7)
    9. Miami Dolphins (7-6) (9-7)
    10. Buffalo Bills (7-6) (8-8)
    11. Houston Texans (7-6) (8-8)
    12. Cleveland Browns (7-6) (8-8)
    13. New York Jets (2-11)
    14. Tennessee Titans (2-11)
    15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
    16. Oakland Raiders (2-11)


    For the most part, I relied on ManfredHanover’s “AFC Playoff Picture Analysis” thread posted on November 26 (shows the remaining schedules for the AFC North and Wildcard contenders) in producing this update of my Week 14 rankings. I did not perform a consistency check of the projected final win-loss records. So please don’t wager on them (or, more importantly, sue me).

    I moved the Ravens up FOUR notches after the statement win in Miami. I see the Steelers losing at least one game (perhaps in Atlanta) and the same for San Diego (perhaps in KC). If instead the Steelers win out (11-5), they win the division using the second tiebreaker (division record) against the Ravens (4-2 them, 3-3 us). That would mean a fifth seed for the Ravens and a first-round playoff meeting in Pittsburgh. Ravens are 0-3 in playoffs against the Steelers (all three in Pittsburgh). Ravens are overdue to beat them.

    If the Chargers also win out (11-5), they would be seeded fifth, dropping the Ravens to the sixth seed (losing head-to-head tiebreaker to them). All of this is predicated, of course, on the Ravens finishing 11-5.

    I see the Bengals’ tie with Carolina as costing them the playoffs (they should have won that one). I have them finishing 1-2 primarily due to the impression I received from their two ugly home losses to the Browns and Steelers. Sorry CincyCat.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Simplest (and only reliable) formula for Ravens to capture a playoff seed:

    1. Win their next THREE games (Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns) which should be enough to clinch a playoff berth at 11-5.

    {Otherwise they are vulnerable to multiple tiebreakers if they end up with a 10-6 record. There are too many contenders in the AFC this season – especially inside their own division. New England, Denver, and Indy will grab up three playoff slots. There will be NINE teams vying for the remaining three slots (Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Bills, Texans). The Ravens need to distance themselves from the rest of the pack and either take the division or stay one win ahead. They are most vulnerable in two important tiebreaker categories: division record (currently 2-3) and conference record (currently 4-5).}

    2. Thanks to the loss to the Chargers, they no longer have the option of resting their starters against Cleveland (a loss resulting in a 11-5 record). Hopefully, they won’t need that makeshift bye to prepare themselves for the playoffs.

    {Two years ago, given their multiple injuries on defense, their playoff-clinching win over the Giants at home enabled them to rest their regulars in Cincy in Week 17. That opportunity was crucial for a team desperate for a postseason bye.}

    ----------------------------------------------------

    One nice thing about these rankings … they’re subject to change. Of course, it’s more fun if you can predict the regular season outcome well in advance.

    Corvus Corax
    Last edited by Corvus Corax; 12-11-2014 at 05:58 PM.





  2. #2

    Re: AFC Team Rankings - Week 15

    Those are pretty much the final records I see happening. Though I could see the Chargers finishing 9-7, that is one tough remaining sched for them.





  3. #3

    Re: AFC Team Rankings - Week 15

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    Those are pretty much the final records I see happening. Though I could see the Chargers finishing 9-7, that is one tough remaining sched for them.
    I like it, but I think the Steelers have as good a chance as us of winning out. Maybe higher. I know all these analysts look at remaining schedule and say ours is easiest because the combined record of our opponents is worst. But that has the Jags really skewing it down. The other two teams we play are both currently above .500 and in the playoff hunt. I would say that both Ravens and Steelers should win this week. Jags are awful, Atlanta is horribly inconsistent. So Ravens have the more favorable matchup, I'd give them the advantage. But the final 2 games of the season, the combined opponent records are not too far apart. Certainly not enough for me to say we've got it significantly easier. Cinci is in the drivers seat, but they definitely have it tough down the stretch and I could see losing 2.





  4. #4
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    Re: AFC Team Rankings - Week 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus Corax View Post
    Simplest (and only reliable) formula for Ravens to capture a playoff seed:

    1. Win their next THREE games (Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns) which should be enough to clinch a playoff berth at 11-5.
    About 30 seconds of modest thought would have told you that 11-5 will in fact "be enough." There are only 7 teams with 5 or fewer losses; 4 of them lead their divisions. Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati so one of those teams must finish 10-5-1 or worse.

    As for the rest of your post, CoCo, it's full of words & numbers but signifies essentially nothing that the vast majority of posters here have understood for a few days now. For me to complain about someone else's logorrhea is pot/kettle/black territory, so let me just say that I hope you enjoyed putting it together, because that'll make at least one of us.
    ...If yinz ain't vaxxed & boosted by now, ain't nuffin' I say gonna change yer mind. Just don't drop dead on my lawn.

    Слава Україні! героям слава!





  5. #5
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    Re: AFC Team Rankings - Week 15

    One could always hope that the Ravens win the division and both Cinnci and Pitt gets knocked out!!

    It's not entirely a wild dream. We need KC to win out. And SD to beat Pitt along with Cinnci losing to Denver and of course winning out means KC has to beat Pitt IN Pittsburgh not a overwhelming task bit still.

    Could be very interesting. And I dint mind beating up on Cinnci as CinnciCat knows his team needs a better QB and/or head coach.





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