2014 Defense With & Without Jimmy Smith

[callahan09]

Overall the defensive numbers look OK to good for the season as a whole, but really it's a tale of two seasons... Before the Jimmy Smith Injury... and After.

Here are some stats, with the first numbers being with Jimmy Smith (Weeks 1-7), and the second numbers are without Jimmy Smith (Since Week 8).

Points Per Game: 14.9 (1st) ... 27.6 (26th)
Yards Per Game: 345.9 (16th) ... 380.2 (24th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 258.4 (24th) ... 295.6 (29th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 86.3 (4th) ... 84.6 (5th)
Takeaways Per Game: 1.43 (19th) ... 1.6 (17th)
Yards Per Play: 5.39 (14th) ... 6.00 (26th)
First Down% (Per Play): 28.9% (15th) ... 31.4% (25th)
Third Down Conversion Rate: 40.4% (14th) ... 50.8% (32nd)
TD% (Per Drive): 14% (2nd) ... 32% (31st)
Score% (Per Drive): 29% (4th) ... 43% (27th)
Yards Per Drive: 32.4 (17th) ... 36.8 (29th)
Time of Possession Per Drive: 2:49 (23rd) ... 2:50 (27th)
Opponent Red Zone TD Rate: 36% (1st) ... 60% (24th)

One of the most telling stats is this one:

Opposing QB Rating:
With Jimmy Smith: 171/271, 1930 Yards, 7 TD, 4 INT = 86.8 QB Rating (11th)
Without Jimmy Smith: 131/182, 1588 Yards, 13 TD, 4 INT = 113.1 QB Rating (30th)

I also like to look at QB Rating as an index of the numbers vs quality of opponents, so I've included that as well, with the RPI being a simple calculation in this case of defensive QB Rating allowed divided by average QB Rating against other opponents for the QBs faced by the defense.

Defensive QB Rating RPI:
With Jimmy Smith: 86.8 / 91.3 = 0.951 (10th)
Without Jimmy Smith: 113.1 / 95.1 = 1.189 (30th)

Previous to the Smith injury, QBs were performing almost 5% worse against us than they did against the other teams they faced... but since his injury, QBs have performed almost 19% better against us than they do against other teams they have faced.

We haven't improved significantly in any category, holding about steady in takeaways and rushing defense, but getting seriously worse in a number of categories.

QBs are performing exceptionally well against us now, whereas we were a top 10 passing defense before in terms of QB rating index.

We went from middle of the road to one of the worst in yards per play allowed.

We went from average to WORST in the league on third downs.

We went from one of the two best in the league to one of the two worst in allowing touchdowns.

We went from BEST red zone defense to bottom 10.

And most importantly, we went from BEST in the league to 26TH in points allowed.

[Ravens44]

Barffffffffffffffffff!!!

Raaaaaaallpppppppppppppppppppphhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!

Ugh!!!! Bbbblllaaaaaahhhh!!!!

[riprulz8]

Despite coming off injury, I'm sure Smith's agent is doing cartwheels over these numbers. This will definitely help drive Jimmy's value up.

[JAB1985]

this is a great set of stats for thecrowd that thinks its on Pees only and not the fact that we have no corners. 14th in 3rd down conversion to dead last would be a very big difference in ability to get off the field, that has little to do with his system and plenty to do with not having any corners.

Im certainly not Pro-Pees, i think we can get better, but I dont think anybody would be doing good with this secondary right now.

[wickedsolo]

Amazing how one person could have such an impact.

[Money227]

this is a great set of stats for thecrowd that thinks its on Pees only and not the fact that we have no corners. 14th in 3rd down conversion to dead last would be a very big difference in ability to get off the field, that has little to do with his system and plenty to do with not having any corners.

Im certainly not Pro-Pees, i think we can get better, but I dont think anybody would be doing good with this secondary right now.

Pees should be able to figure out how to succeed with this secondary. He was in NE when they had a WR starting at CB. He also has an outstanding front 7 at his disposal.

I am absolutely fine with our defense giving up big plays due to being aggressive. I am not fine watching other teams methodically march down the field (while our offense sits on the sidelines). I wasn't fine with it when opposing offenses were getting bottled up in the red zone, and I'm even less fine now since that isn't even working anymore.

[Terpsfan82]

I think this speaks to lack of depth at cornerback as much as anything else. We didn't even have a 2nd string caliber corner on the roster when the season started. That's why we all held our breath when he was initially injured in the preseason game against Dallas.

[BigPlayReceiver]

Outstanding presentation, Callahan09

Despite coming off injury, I'm sure Smith's agent is doing cartwheels over these numbers. This will definitely help drive Jimmy's value up.

This was my first thought too

[Terpsfan82]

Pees should be able to figure out how to succeed with this secondary. He was in NE when they had a WR starting at CB. He also has an outstanding front 7 at his disposal.

I am absolutely fine with our defense giving up big plays due to being aggressive. I am not fine watching other teams methodically march down the field (while our offense sits on the sidelines). I wasn't fine with it when opposing offenses were getting bottled up in the red zone, and I'm even less fine now since that isn't even working anymore.

[wickedsolo]

This.

Pees should be able to figure out how to succeed with this secondary. He was in NE when they had a WR starting at CB. He also has an outstanding front 7 at his disposal.

I am absolutely fine with our defense giving up big plays due to being aggressive. I am not fine watching other teams methodically march down the field (while our offense sits on the sidelines). I wasn't fine with it when opposing offenses were getting bottled up in the red zone, and I'm even less fine now since that isn't even working anymore.

[DonNMass]

I didn't look it up, but how was the secondary in 2012 if you know? Just curious.

[BigPlayReceiver]

I was just remarking in another thread that if Will Hill has truly got his behavior in order then he's a cheap resign over the next 2-3 years.

We haven't seen Jimmy and Hill play meaningful snaps together...

[wickedsolo]

Good point.

I was just remarking in another thread that if Will Hill has truly got his behavior in order then he's a cheap resign over the next 2-3 years.

We haven't seen Jimmy and Hill play meaningful snaps together...

[Terpsfan82]

^^^That would be a nice combination. Then all they would have to do is shore up the other side of that secondary.

[JAB1985]

Pees should be able to figure out how to succeed with this secondary. He was in NE when they had a WR starting at CB. He also has an outstanding front 7 at his disposal.

I am absolutely fine with our defense giving up big plays due to being aggressive. I am not fine watching other teams methodically march down the field (while our offense sits on the sidelines). I wasn't fine with it when opposing offenses were getting bottled up in the red zone, and I'm even less fine now since that isn't even working anymore.

it was working just fine when we had even remotely legitimate CBs. As the yards per play increase shows, its not just methodical, theyre allowing big plays regardless. That speaks volumes about the talent not the scheme, especially since its so abrupt of a change. when we went from average/good in every category to bottom of the league with one player lost, it shows how much of an impact that guy had. He allowed us to cover up other problems. Hes not here, now we have double the weak areas. there not a ton a DC can do to cover up both sides of the field.

its like trying to cover up a dining table of bad areas but only having a napkin to do so. Its just not going to happen.

[JAB1985]

I was just remarking in another thread that if Will Hill has truly got his behavior in order then he's a cheap resign over the next 2-3 years.

We haven't seen Jimmy and Hill play meaningful snaps together...

with Hill over top of the weak side and Jimmy on an island so to speak, I think even this Pees led defense would have improved on those stats and wed be talking about a strong playoff run right now. even if the other side was a beat up webb or low end street FA CB.

[Money227]

it was working just fine when we had even remotely legitimate CBs. As the yards per play increase shows, its not just methodical, theyre allowing big plays regardless. That speaks volumes about the talent not the scheme, especially since its so abrupt of a change. when we went from average/good in every category to bottom of the league with one player lost, it shows how much of an impact that guy had. He allowed us to cover up other problems. Hes not here, now we have double the weak areas. there not a ton a DC can do to cover up both sides of the field.

its like trying to cover up a dining table of bad areas but only having a napkin to do so. Its just not going to happen.

That's up for debate...which I have done in other threads and won't rehash here. What I will say is that we were not average/good in every category. We were below average/bad in every category that relates to getting off the damn field even before Smith went down.

[NC Raven]

Pees should be able to figure out how to succeed with this secondary. He was in NE when they had a WR starting at CB. He also has an outstanding front 7 at his disposal.

I am absolutely fine with our defense giving up big plays due to being aggressive. I am not fine watching other teams methodically march down the field (while our offense sits on the sidelines). I wasn't fine with it when opposing offenses were getting bottled up in the red zone, and I'm even less fine now since that isn't even working anymore.

Well the problem now is when we blitz the other teams are keeping in 7 or 8 to block. They know they can beat our coverage if the line holds up long enough. The total shambles in the secondary renders our front 7 all but useless in obvious blitz/passing situations.

So we can be as "aggressive" as we want, it doesn't mean shit against max protect.