AFC Team Rankings - Week 14

[Corvus Corax]

INTRODUCTION:

The top six rankings are CURRENT projected playoff seeds. The projected final win-loss records are posted to the right of the current ones (neglecting the bottom four teams). Below the rankings, after comments, you will find my assessment of what needs to happen for the Baltimore Ravens to clinch a playoff berth.

1. New England Patriots (9-3) (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (9-3) (12-4)
3. Indianapolis Irsays (8-4) (11-5)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) (10-5-1)
5. San Diego Chargers (8-4) (10-6)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-5) (10-6)
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7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) (10-6)
8. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) (10-6)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (9-7)
10. Cleveland Browns (7-5) (9-7)
11. Buffalo Bills (7-5) (8-8)
12. Houston Texans (6-6) (8-8)
13. New York Jets (2-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (2-10)
15. Oakland Raiders (1-11)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

For the most part, I relied on ManfredHanover’s “AFC Playoff Picture Analysis” thread posted on November 26 (shows the remaining schedules for most of the contenders) in producing this update of my Week 12 rankings. I did not perform a consistency check of the projected final win-loss records. So please don’t wager on them (or, more importantly, sue me).

Obviously, I ranked the Ravens as an ultimate victim of tiebreakers. The two critical ones are their division record (currently 2-3) and AFC record (currently 3-5). And I am also anticipating the loss of another head-to-head tiebreaker to Miami (but hoping that I’m wrong) to go along with the one to San Diego. The Ravens’ loss to San Diego was very strange for three reasons:

(a) It was the first time EVER that a Ravens team lost at home to a West Coast visitor.
(b) It was the first time in 17 years that a Ravens team lost ANY game while scoring 33 points.
(c) It was the first time this season that a Ravens team lost a game while commiting ZERO turnovers (I did not research the last time that happened – perhaps it has been years).

The fact that the Ravens secondary, most of this entire season, has been virtually depleted of NFL-grade quality and has struggled greatly (especially after losing Jimmy Smith) is certainly no surprise. But what has taken us by surprise is Haloti Ngata’s sudden suspension. The timing is terrible. Somehow, someway, the Ravens defense needs to hold together in their last four scheduled games. It may simply be too much to overcome.

Two weeks ago I stated that the Ravens were at a crossroads and that the game in New Orleans was pivotal. Well, this forthcoming game in sunny Miami is critical and essentially a playoff game because the Ravens are facing elimination. It is not immediate elimination but rather eventual, highly-probable elimination. (Read further on for an explanation on why 10 wins won’t suffice this season.)

I sincerely hope that I can move the Ravens upward in these rankings in the critical weeks ahead. A hallmark of Harbaugh’s Ravens teams is that they almost always show improvement as the regular season progresses (2009 was the exception). And what happened in New Orleans certainly gave us a glimmer of hope.

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Simplest (and only) formula for Ravens to capture a playoff seed:

1. Starting in Miami, win their next FOUR games (@Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns) which should be enough to clinch a playoff berth at 11-5.

{Otherwise they are vulnerable to multiple tiebreakers if they end up with a 10-6 record. There are too many contenders in the AFC this season – especially inside their own division. New England, Denver, and Indy will grab up three playoff slots. There will be NINE teams vying for the remaining three slots (Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Bills, Texans). The Ravens need to distance themselves from the rest of the pack and either take the division or stay one win ahead.}

2. Thanks to the loss to the Chargers, they no longer have the option of resting their starters against Cleveland (a loss resulting in a 11-5 record). Hopefully, they won’t NEED that makeshift bye to prepare themselves for the playoffs.

{Two years ago, given their multiple injuries on defense, their playoff-clinching win over the Giants at home enabled them to rest their regulars in Cincy in Week 17. That opportunity was crucial for a team desperate for a postseason bye.}

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Corvus Corax

[saintmatthew]

INTRODUCTION:

The top six rankings are CURRENT projected playoff seeds. The projected final win-loss records are posted to the right of the current ones (neglecting the bottom four teams). Below the rankings, after comments, you will find my assessment of what needs to happen for the Baltimore Ravens to clinch a playoff berth.

1. New England Patriots (9-3) (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (9-3) (12-4)
3. Indianapolis Irsays (8-4) (11-5)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) (10-5-1)
5. San Diego Chargers (8-4) (10-6)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-5) (10-6)
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7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) (10-6)
8. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) (10-6)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (9-7)
10. Cleveland Browns (7-5) (9-7)
11. Buffalo Bills (7-5) (8-8)
12. Houston Texans (6-6) (8-8)
13. New York Jets (2-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (2-10)
15. Oakland Raiders (1-11)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

For the most part, I relied on ManfredHanover’s “AFC Playoff Picture Analysis” thread posted on November 26 (shows the remaining schedules for most of the contenders) in producing this update of my Week 12 rankings. I did not perform a consistency check of the projected final win-loss records. So please don’t wager on them (or, more importantly, sue me).

Obviously, I ranked the Ravens as an ultimate victim of tiebreakers. The two critical ones are their division record (currently 2-3) and AFC record (currently 3-5). And I am also anticipating the loss of another head-to-head tiebreaker to Miami (but hoping that I’m wrong) to go along with the one to San Diego. The Ravens’ loss to San Diego was very strange for three reasons:

(a) It was the first time EVER that a Ravens team lost at home to a West Coast visitor.
(b) It was the first time in 17 years that a Ravens team lost ANY game while scoring 33 points.
(c) It was the first time this season that a Ravens team lost a game while commiting ZERO turnovers (I did not research the last time that happened – perhaps it has been years).

The fact that the Ravens secondary, most of this entire season, has been virtually depleted of NFL-grade quality and has struggled greatly (especially after losing Jimmy Smith) is certainly no surprise. But what has taken us by surprise is Haloti Ngata’s sudden suspension. The timing is terrible. Somehow, someway, the Ravens defense needs to hold together in their last four scheduled games. It may simply be too much to overcome.

Two weeks ago I stated that the Ravens were at a crossroads and that the game in New Orleans was pivotal. Well, this forthcoming game in sunny Miami is critical and essentially a playoff game because the Ravens are facing elimination. It is not immediate elimination but rather eventual, highly-probable elimination. (Read further on for an explanation on why 10 wins won’t suffice this season.)

I sincerely hope that I can move the Ravens upward in these rankings in the critical weeks ahead. A hallmark of Harbaugh’s Ravens teams is that they almost always show improvement as the regular season progresses (2009 was the exception). And what happened in New Orleans certainly gave us a glimmer of hope.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simplest (and only) formula for Ravens to capture a playoff seed:

1. Starting in Miami, win their next FOUR games (@Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns) which should be enough to clinch a playoff berth at 11-5.

{Otherwise they are vulnerable to multiple tiebreakers if they end up with a 10-6 record. There are too many contenders in the AFC this season – especially inside their own division. New England, Denver, and Indy will grab up three playoff slots. There will be NINE teams vying for the remaining three slots (Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Bills, Texans). The Ravens need to distance themselves from the rest of the pack and either take the division or stay one win ahead.}

2. Thanks to the loss to the Chargers, they no longer have the option of resting their starters against Cleveland (a loss resulting in a 11-5 record). Hopefully, they won’t NEED that makeshift bye to prepare themselves for the playoffs.

{Two years ago, given their multiple injuries on defense, their playoff-clinching win over the Giants at home enabled them to rest their regulars in Cincy in Week 17. That opportunity was crucial for a team desperate for a postseason bye.}

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Corvus Corax

I don't think they would need that makeshift bye as much. We had a lot of older vets on that team. This team would benefit from momentum more and the only vet to be concerned about is getting a four week rest.

[Corvus Corax]

I don't think they would need that makeshift bye as much. We had a lot of older vets on that team. This team would benefit from momentum more and the only vet to be concerned about is getting a four week rest.

Good points; hope you're right.