Significant Line Shift

**Filmstudy** · 10-25-2014, 07:02 AM

There has been a significant line shift since this game opened for international betting:

On Tuesday I looked and the Ravens were 1.5 to 2 point dogs
As of now, they are approximately 2.25 point favorites. Some books are offering it still at 2, but most 2 with a small lay, and some at 2.5 flat.

I don't think this is about Green, I think it's more a function of the return of Monroe and Osemele.

**Sarcasticfury** · 10-25-2014, 07:57 AM

Originally Posted by Filmstudy

There has been a significant line shift since this game opened for international betting:

On Tuesday I looked and the Ravens were 1.5 to 2 point dogs
As of now, they are approximately 2.25 point favorites. Some books are offering it still at 2, but most 2 with a small lay, and some at 2.5 flat.

I don't think this is about Green, I think it's more a function of the return of Monroe and Osemele.

It's partially about Green.

**Ravenboy2003** · 10-25-2014, 08:15 AM

Originally Posted by Filmstudy

There has been a significant line shift since this game opened for international betting:

On Tuesday I looked and the Ravens were 1.5 to 2 point dogs
As of now, they are approximately 2.25 point favorites. Some books are offering it still at 2, but most 2 with a small lay, and some at 2.5 flat.

I don't think this is about Green, I think it's more a function of the return of Monroe and Osemele.

Combination of the two, most likely. The line shifted after two days of Green not practicing and two days of Monroe and Ose practicing. Moving a line 3 points means a LOT of cash came the Ravens way. Most likely millions.

All that being said, Cincy may treat this as their last chance at a SB run and give us the kitchen sink.

**Doctor** · 10-25-2014, 08:15 AM

I'm happy with my lot in life, but there are times, like anyone, when I wish I had a good chunk of disposable income...this is one...because I would have put every nickel on Baltimore when we were getting points.

**TonyD79** · 10-25-2014, 08:26 AM

The line I was watching slowly shrunk from 2.5 or 3 down to 1 until Thursday. Didn't look yesterday. Today it is Ravens by 2. The last jump has to be Green. The earlier movement was because Vegas set the line too high.

**JustaslowZ06** · 10-25-2014, 10:51 AM

It moves because of money. Apparently people started throwing a ton the Ravens way.

That being said if think it would be far more about Green than KO and Monroe. BUT they could be playing a small role. If you see 2 OL starters coming back you instantly think better protection and the offense will click better. Baltimore is finally getting noticed by "gamblers" and people who do this for a living.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-25-2014, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by Doctor

I'm happy with my lot in life, but there are times, like anyone, when I wish I had a good chunk of disposable income...this is one...because I would have put every nickel on Baltimore when we were getting points.

And that's exactly why the line moved.

**Ravenswintitle** · 10-25-2014, 11:24 AM

OT - how about the Jets being favored by 3 over the Bills? I heard a Vegas guy say never in the past 25 years has a team that's lost 6 straight games been a favorite.

**Cj34** · 10-25-2014, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

OT - how about the Jets being favored by 3 over the Bills? I heard a Vegas guy say never in the past 25 years has a team that's lost 6 straight games been a favorite.

Most of you know by now the spread is not a predictor of who they think will win, it's a tool to divide the money on both sides. This happens to be a New York team so there's a LOT of money on them. Despite the Jets losing 6 straight games and still being installed as a favorite, 66% of the public is on the Jets right now. That's only 2% less then the 68% on the Ravens.

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...t#.VEvZSPnF99g

**lobachevsky** · 10-25-2014, 01:30 PM

A significant shift on the (offensive) line leads to a significant shift on the (betting) line. Hoodathunkit? ;)

**Filmstudy** · 10-25-2014, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by Cj34

Most of you know by now the spread is not a predictor of who they think will win, it's a tool to divide the money on both sides. This happens to be a New York team so there's a LOT of money on them. Despite the Jets losing 6 straight games and still being installed as a favorite, 66% of the public is on the Jets right now. That's only 2% less then the 68% on the Ravens.

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...t#.VEvZSPnF99g

You're right if you are saying the spread isn't the best predictor of W/L outcomes, but it's what I use to simplify since most fans think in those terms.

Looking at the moneyline for a cross section of 21 online books via Oddschecker, I see the Ravens opened at 2.15 with the Bengals at 1.74 on Monday. The current best prices are 1.91 and 2.10.

To find the implied win probabilities we need to take out the aggregate vig in those lines. I've posted the math to do that before, so I won't again, but that opening line split the W/L odds as:

Bengals 55.3%
Ravens 44.7%

At prices as I write this, the implied win probabilities are:

Bengals 47.6%
Ravens 52.4%

That is an absolutely huge shift and it's dollar weighted, not count-of-idiots weighted, so it's a very solid predictor of the outcome.

**Cj34** · 10-25-2014, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by Filmstudy

You're right if you are saying the spread isn't the best predictor of W/L outcomes, but it's what I use to simplify since most fans think in those terms.

Looking at the moneyline for a cross section of 21 online books via Oddschecker, I see the Ravens opened at 2.15 with the Bengals at 1.74 on Monday. The current best prices are 1.91 and 2.10.

To find the implied win probabilities we need to take out the aggregate vig in those lines. I've posted the math to do that before, so I won't again, but that opening line split the W/L odds as:

Bengals 55.3%
Ravens 44.7%

At prices as I write this, the implied win probabilities are:

Bengals 47.6%
Ravens 52.4%

That is an absolutely huge shift and it's dollar weighted, not count-of-idiots weighted, so it's a very solid predictor of the outcome.

This doesn't apply to the Ravens game, but, one of the tools that gamblers can look at is the line movement versus the public percentage. If the % of public is dramatically on one side and the line is moving the opposite way that can show you the sharps or high dollar players have their money on the other side. At at the very least it sets off a red flag to examine the game more closely. As a matter of fact some people even make bets exclusively on the opposite team when the public % is overwhelmingly one-sided.