Hensley: Webb Unlikely to be Back with the Ravens Next Year.

**B-more Ravor** · 10-13-2014, 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by Mark

I understand and appreciate your detailed analysis. I agree that Ngata would jump at your proposed restructure. My point is with Rice and Pitta dead money, the emergence of Brandon Williams, the Smith, McPhee and Flacco contracts on the horizon and Ngata's age, the Ravens may choose to move on rather than commit to Ngata for 3 more years.

Personally, I think it will take more to get Ngata extended. He may want to stay here, but he's still going to want market value. IMO, it's going to take an extension much like Suggs got to keep Ngata around. After all, we all were proposing something similar to extend Suggs last Spring and he got more than we were expecting.

Plus, he's a year younger than Suggs and right now he's playing far better than Suggs did in the 2nd half of last year (rest is still TBD, I know) and is playing better than Suggs is right now.

**B-more Ravor** · 10-13-2014, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

Only way I dont see him in one is if he decides to retire. Hes still one of the best in the business.

Originally Posted by Terpsfan82

I don't think he wants to play anywhere else, so retirement is the most likely option.

I don't know, I recall Boldin saying that - and it didn't work out that way.

**B-more Ravor** · 10-13-2014, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by slinkymaster

Webb will be back. We're not gonna pay $7M to not have him here when an extra $5M will keep him around. We're entering a window where the cap doesn't really matter that much because all the current contracts are on deals that will be based on a much lower overall team cap in year 1 than they will be by the time they end. The current estimated cap increase is $11M-$13M for next year, and I don't know if that's including the new Directv deal.

You have to think about it this way, will the $5M we save be used on someone with as much potential as a healthy Webb? $5M will get us an average starter in free agency. We keep him around next year and if he still can't stay healthy or bring his play up to par we get rid of him in 2016.

I agree, but want to point out the savings isn't even $5M. It's only $2M. So, that IMO, even more pushes him into the "keep" column - at least, assuming he can stay healthy the rest of the way (yeah, I know....).

They could do a post-June 1 release, which would then create $8M in savings ($12M Cap less $4M bonus proration), but $6M in dead money in 2016. Given that Flacco's number increases dramatically in 2016, I'm not sure they'd want to push that much forward.

The best case scenario, IMO, is finding a way to keep him (at least) through 2015 and then using a post-June 1 release on him in 2016, thus only $4M in dead money in 2016 and $2M in 2017.

(That said, Flacco's number is unlikely to be as high as scheduled in 2016 and 2017 as some adjustment almost has to be made).

**jonboy79** · 10-13-2014, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by JustaslowZ06

No plenty of players live up to their payday. But when you're paid like top 5 at your position I expect top 5 stats to back it up. And so on. He's been a huge disappointment this far in this contract. Nagging injuries hampering his production for sure. But the past couple years he hasn't been nearly as dominant as we expect or he has in the past or his contract dictates. Everyone has agreed he hasn't lived up to his price tag. Not just fans but the pundits also.

again, couldn't disagree much more.
Ngata has EASILY ALWAYS been in the top 5 at his position, and no other single player has been top 5 that entire time.

**GOTA** · 10-13-2014, 12:13 PM

One thing we know for sure is that no one from the Ravens is going to let any member of the media in on their plans. It's all speculation based on looking through contracts.

**2gigch1** · 10-13-2014, 12:22 PM

What is the projected salary cap growth over the next few years? It gets a lot easier to keep people if the cap grows a lot.

**slinkymaster** · 10-13-2014, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by 2gigch1

What is the projected salary cap growth over the next few years? It gets a lot easier to keep people if the cap grows a lot.

$10M+ per year.

**pslholder96** · 10-13-2014, 02:28 PM

Originally Posted by 2gigch1

What is the projected salary cap growth over the next few years? It gets a lot easier to keep people if the cap grows a lot.

But more expensive for those worthy of a contract extension if they have the right agents.....

**B-more Ravor** · 10-13-2014, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by pslholder96

But more expensive for those worthy of a contract extension if they have the right agents.....

Exactly.....not to mention that pretty much every player's salary increases yearly.

The Cap increases will certainly help, no doubt, but I'd have to think that most teams have already been factoring that in.

The Ravens will find a way, but releasing Rice and the health concerns regarding Pitta and Webb may throw a big monkey wrench into what the "plan" may have originally looked like.

**HotInHere** · 10-13-2014, 03:27 PM

Originally Posted by B-more Ravor

Exactly.....not to mention that pretty much every players salary increases yearly.

The increases certainly help, no doubt, but I'd have to think that most teams have already been factoring that in.

The Ravens will find a way, but releasing Rice and the health concerns regarding Pitta and Webb may throw a big monkey wrench into what the "plan" may have originally looked like.

I wonder if the cap increases hurt us more than it helps us. It encourages the bottom feeders and rebuilding teams who may be struggling to stay above the salary floor to just take a ridiculous crapload of money and dump it on Haloti's front lawn.

The converse argument is that we are better at managing the cap than most, so we will make better use of the extra flexibility.

**pslholder96** · 10-13-2014, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by B-more Ravor

Exactly.....not to mention that pretty much every players salary increases yearly.

The increases certainly help, no doubt, but I'd have to think that most teams have already been factoring that in.

The Ravens will find a way, but releasing Rice and the health concerns regarding Pitta and Webb may throw a big monkey wrench into what the "plan" may have originally looked like.

Yep. People keep saying salary cap is going up but so are market values for premium position players. The ravens have always a done a great job of maintaining that balance between rewarding players and cutting them. Some tough decisions are forthcoming as soon as this season is over for sure.

**B-more Ravor** · 10-14-2014, 10:05 AM

A little more detail on the ramifications of releasing Webb next year:

As the numbers show, releasing Webb in 2015 would only save the Ravens $2M in Cap space.

So, contrary to some reports, releasing Webb won’t provide the Ravens with much in the way of Cap relief and will come at a cost of $10M in dead money against the Cap. After being forced to release RB Ray Rice and take on $9.5M in dead money, it seems highly unlikely that the Ravens would also be willing to take on an additional $10M by releasing Webb too.

Obviously, how Webb plays the rest of the season will go a long way toward deciding this issue, but $20M (and more with other releases) is a huge amount of dead money for a team to carry.

http://russellstreetreport.com/will-...avens-in-2015/