The Running Men - RB draft options

**BcRaven** · 11-24-2014, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

It's really hard to project what the Ravens will do until we see what happens with Forsett, McPhee, and Torrey in free agency.

Let's operate under the assumption that the Ravens get at least one supplemental pick between rounds 3 and 5, leaving them with 6 picks in the first five rounds.

I would suspect that the allocation of those picks would be:

CB
CB
WR
RB
Pass Rusher
TE

I think Torrey and McPhee being back have a greater impact on what we do in terms of drafting a RB than Forsett being back. If neither is back, I think we address 5-tech/rush LB and WR in the top 3 rounds, forcing RB down the priority chart, regardless of whether #29 is back or not.

FWIW, I think Forsett's chances of being back are slim.

He'll be 30 next year and has never made more than $1m in any season of his career. If there was truly a player who needed to cash in for every dollar that his success brings him, it's Forsett. I think the Ravens probably offer him 2 years/$3.5m-4m. Not sure the cap space allows for much more than that. I'm positive that he will likely get a better offer than that from another franchise. I doubt anyone would sign him to be their feature back, but even a 50/50 back who can play third downs is probably going to get a higher valuation with another team than the Ravens give him.

Three things from me : (1) Nobody knows where/when the Ravens will draft. Even after the season ends, when we do know, Ozzie usually surprises us. So, your positional picks (which I am not disagreeing we need) may be out the window when Oz chooses BPA. (2) As far as I know, the Ravens do not have a 5th round pick. Read below :

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/r...323-story.html

(3) Forsett may look for every last dollar, but my gut tells me he's content in Baltimore. Kubiak wanted him, he's run better than anyone could have imagined behind our Oline, and perhaps he would be satisfied with a two year "reasonable" contract offer to stay.

... Bc

**The Excellector** · 11-24-2014, 04:21 PM

RBs are always undervalued, until you get one that fumbles, or doesn't see the whole, or won't cut it up inside like he's supposed to, or won't break tackles in space.

If he has All Pro potential. Take him. Let him play out his rookie contract before joining another team, but take him. Teams miss far too much on early round picks to not take a top RB talent.

**LukeDaniel** · 11-24-2014, 05:46 PM

Originally Posted by BcRaven

(3) Forsett may look for every last dollar, but my gut tells me he's content in Baltimore. Kubiak wanted him, he's run better than anyone could have imagined behind our Oline, and perhaps he would be satisfied with a two year "reasonable" contract offer to stay.

... Bc

I can't remember a single Raven UFA who we thought would stay in Bmore because of liking the atmosphere who actually did.

Jacoby maybe fits that description but I think the 4years-$12m was comparable to his best offers elsewhere.

It's a great theory, but I've yet to see it pan out that way with anyone.

**LukeDaniel** · 11-24-2014, 05:57 PM

Originally Posted by Mizerooskie

I can't really see them going with two corners that high. Ozzie and JH value 'veteranosity' too much. I'd bet on one immediate contributor and one late developmental pick.

As for running backs, I am really curious how the Gurley thing plays out. ACL tears aren't what they used to be (see Peterson, Charles, etc.), but it's gotta make him drop some, right? Imagine being able to nab that kind of RB talent in the 2nd round.

I would argue that in every NFL draft, two of your top 6 picks should be CBs. The position is that valuable and, as I've said here ad nauseum, is also the most injury-impacted position on the field.

In the 2015 draft, unless the Ravens pick up a veteran in free agency (unlikely given the price of one and the limited cap space), I wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens drafted 3 CBs in their first five 5 picks.

Smith is a free agent after 2015 who has been fully healthy only once in his first 4 seasons. Webb will be 30 and looks questionable. He might even get cut this offseason. Asa Jackson can't stay on the field and is a free agent after 2015. Gorrer is a free agent. Jacobs is an undrafted rookie.

You need 5 good corners on every NFL roster. This is a basic tenant of roster construction....one our front office has ignored in each of the past three drafts.

Our front office majorly f-ed this up this past offseason and I think they are smart enough to know it and hopefully realize that BPA really gets you nowhere if you have talented O-linemen, WRs, and LBs sitting on the bench while you have untalented undrafted rookies and waiver wire players and converted backup safeties starting at CB for you.

Right now, even if Webb/Smith/Jackson all are healthy (a massive "if"), that's still only 3 guys. Levine might make 4, but I'm not willing to say so after one game against the hapless Titans pass offense. The Ravens have undervalued the CB position for far too long in the draft and I think this is the year they finalize wise up. The position is in such incredible shambles that how can you not commit two high picks to solidify it? This is not a roster that has a lot of impending turnover. Most of the groups for next year (WR, O-line, LBs, S, RBs) are likely to look quite similar to this year. If you pass on a nickleback/potential starter at CB in the 3rd round to draft a rotational RB, I think that's a severe mistake.

**CDiPiranha** · 11-24-2014, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

I would argue that in every NFL draft, two of your top 6 picks should be CBs. The position is that valuable and, as I've said here ad nauseum, is also the most injury-impacted position on the field.

In the 2015 draft, unless the Ravens pick up a veteran in free agency (unlikely given the price of one and the limited cap space), I wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens drafted 3 CBs in their first five 5 picks.

Smith is a free agent after 2015 who has been fully healthy only once in his first 4 seasons. Webb will be 30 and looks questionable. He might even get cut this offseason. Asa Jackson can't stay on the field and is a free agent after 2015. Gorrer is a free agent. Jacobs is an undrafted rookie.

You need 5 good corners on every NFL roster. This is a basic tenant of roster construction....one our front office has ignored in each of the past three drafts.

Our front office majorly f-ed this up this past offseason and I think they are smart enough to know it and hopefully realize that BPA really gets you nowhere if you have talented O-linemen, WRs, and LBs sitting on the bench while you have untalented undrafted rookies and waiver wire players and converted backup safeties starting at CB for you.

Right now, even if Webb/Smith/Jackson all are healthy (a massive "if"), that's still only 3 guys. Levine might make 4, but I'm not willing to say so after one game against the hapless Titans pass offense. The Ravens have undervalued the CB position for far too long in the draft and I think this is the year they finalize wise up. The position is in such incredible shambles that how can you not commit two high picks to solidify it? This is not a roster that has a lot of impending turnover. Most of the groups for next year (WR, O-line, LBs, S, RBs) are likely to look quite similar to this year. If you pass on a nickleback/potential starter at CB in the 3rd round to draft a rotational RB, I think that's a severe mistake.

While I agree that CB will get solid consideration this offseason, I simply cannot subscribe to a team "needing 5 good corners". It would be nice to have five good corners, but it isn't an actual "need".

The only real reason that a team would have "five good corners" is if a developmental low-level guy showed strong ability to play quicker or better than expected OR some vet turned the clock back for a season or so and played better than expected.

Most teams are gonna play a trio of corners, then that 4th-guy is either a youngster or a limited utility vet that isn't ideal starting-caliber. After that, the fifth-CB on almost every team is primarily a developmental special-teamer for that season who was drafted in the mid-rds or lower (possibly even undrafted) and nurtured by his team. If the team happens to have a highly-touted high-drafted guy as their 5th-CB, you can reasonably believe that either they're pushing some older guys off the roster really soon (and moving the youngster up the depthchart) OR that fifth-CB has been a major disappointment as a positional player (like Dre Kirkpatrick in Cincy for example) and the team has decided to 'redraft' that same roster spot (pushing him down to the fifth spot). Much like we 'redrafted' the ILB spot after not being pleased with what Arthur Brown displayed to the coaches in 2013.

All in all we will make a firm assessment in our secondary this offseason, no doubt. Depending on how we see Webb and the health (and long-term thinking) of Jimmy Smith will be a major factor in how we address this thing next spring.

We'll see how it goes.

C DiP

**Mizerooskie** · 11-25-2014, 12:26 AM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

I would argue that in every NFL draft, two of your top 6 picks should be CBs. The position is that valuable and, as I've said here ad nauseum, is also the most injury-impacted position on the field.

In the 2015 draft, unless the Ravens pick up a veteran in free agency (unlikely given the price of one and the limited cap space), I wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens drafted 3 CBs in their first five 5 picks.

Smith is a free agent after 2015 who has been fully healthy only once in his first 4 seasons. Webb will be 30 and looks questionable. He might even get cut this offseason. Asa Jackson can't stay on the field and is a free agent after 2015. Gorrer is a free agent. Jacobs is an undrafted rookie.

You need 5 good corners on every NFL roster. This is a basic tenant of roster construction....one our front office has ignored in each of the past three drafts.

Our front office majorly f-ed this up this past offseason and I think they are smart enough to know it and hopefully realize that BPA really gets you nowhere if you have talented O-linemen, WRs, and LBs sitting on the bench while you have untalented undrafted rookies and waiver wire players and converted backup safeties starting at CB for you.

Right now, even if Webb/Smith/Jackson all are healthy (a massive "if"), that's still only 3 guys. Levine might make 4, but I'm not willing to say so after one game against the hapless Titans pass offense. The Ravens have undervalued the CB position for far too long in the draft and I think this is the year they finalize wise up. The position is in such incredible shambles that how can you not commit two high picks to solidify it? This is not a roster that has a lot of impending turnover. Most of the groups for next year (WR, O-line, LBs, S, RBs) are likely to look quite similar to this year. If you pass on a nickleback/potential starter at CB in the 3rd round to draft a rotational RB, I think that's a severe mistake.

Is there a single team in the league that takes (or has consistently taken) 2 CBs in their top 6 picks? I don't think it's a viable strategy, at all. Take at least one every draft? Sure, I can buy into that.

I also think it's unlikely that the Ravens don't add a CB in free agency. Ozzie has found cheap solutions to problem positions via free agency maneuvering in the past (Dumervil, Smith, Sr. Will Hill, etc.). I bet he does something similar to improve corner depth.

And I'd be dumbfounded if they take 3 corners in their first 5 picks.

**NC Raven** · 11-25-2014, 01:08 AM

Forsett may not be in Baltimore next year but he won't get much more than the Ravens would offer him. He is clearly a system player. Tonight it was evident. (1) he lacks upper body strength to stiff arm when he's got the chance for extra yards (2) he lacks top end speed to break big plays into huge ones, and (3) he doesn't switch the ball into his left hand when a defender approaches from the right, so he can't secure it and he can't use his right arm to stiff arm the tackler.

Frankly he could have had 270 yards tonight. He's done very well, and I'm thrilled to have him. I like how he reads blocks and gets up field.

But he's way more valuable here than anywhere else. We might end up overpaying for him a bit, but ain't no way he hits the market at the "going rate" for however many yards he ends up with this year (1,400??). It's pretty obvious he's not a great player, but he really fills the role here, in this offense, to a T. That said, a more physically gifted player who reads the plays and reads the blocks well could have a monster year in this offense. Forsett gets what's there, and that's more than what Pierce gives us for damn sure (which is why we should//probably will overpay a bit) but he does not add a shit-ton of value over and above what the play already provides.