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  1. #271
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    Re: Worst draft ever



    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post
    It seems as though at times Ozzie tries to outsmart himself with some of these picks.Not crazy about the trend of drafting these small college players much higher than most have them evaluated at.The middle of the draft these past few years in littered with these kinds of picks and nine times out of ten they have contributed very little.
    Your "nine times out of ten" comment got me thinking about whether you had facts, or just talking off the cuff and throwing out numbers. SO, I went back as far as John Harbaugh's tenure and looked at the small school draft picks, all rounds, to see if the Ravens have gotten value for them. It's a little too early to tell about some of them (2013, 2012 drafts), but I don't think your "nine times out of ten they have contributed very little" comment is accurate. It has some validity, but that's when looking at the late round flyers - where a lot of guys don't panout regardless of school.

    I see five "bust" players (Gradkowski, Thompson, Harewood, Drew, Hale), five "too early to tell" players (Williams, Juszczyk, Jensen, Mellette, Jackson), and three "solid/major contributors" (Pierce, Webb, Flacco). So tossing out the "too early to tell" guys (and I think more than half of them end up contributors), you are left with 5 of 8 small school picks as busts. Frankly, considering the 2nd round bust rate league-wide is around 50%, to get 37.5% of your small school picks to be major/solid contirbutors is pretty good. But you might see it differently, and I'm okay with that because I'm not really arguing about it. I just found the information interesting.

    2013 (10 total picks)

    3rd Brandon Williams (Missouri Southern State)
    4th Kyle Juszczyk (Harvard)
    6th Ryan Jensen (Southern Colorado)
    7th Aaron Mellette (Elon)

    2012 (8 total picks)

    3rd Bernard Pierce (Temple)
    4th Gino Gradkowski (Delaware)
    4th Christian Thompson (South Carolina State)
    5th Asa Jackson (Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo)

    2011 (8 picks)

    no small schools

    2010 (7 picks)

    6th Ramon Harewood (Morehouse)

    2009 (6 picks)

    3rd Lardarius Webb (Nicholls State)
    5th Davon Drew (East Carolina)

    2008 (10 picks)

    1st Joe Flacco (Delaware)
    4th David Hale (Weber State)




  2. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post

    I actually meant the jury is still out on (ThompsonJackson/Williams/Simon/Brown/Upshaw)

    There have been numerous 2-5th round busts from small and large schools these past few seasons.A few of the analyst said the TE the Ravens drafted was projected to go in the 6th or 7th round. Why reach at the end of round 3? Have any of the compensation picks they've been getting these past few years amounted to anything?
    So because a draft pundit said that, it must be true....




  3. #273

    Re: Worst draft ever

    2008 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    1 18 18 Joe Flacco Quarterback Delaware
    2 24 55 Ray Rice Running Back Rutgers
    3 8 71 Tavares Gooden Linebacker Miami (FL)
    3 23 86 Tom Zbikowski Safety Notre Dame
    3 36 99 Oniel Cousins Guard UTEP
    4 7 106 Marcus Smith Wide Receiver New Mexico
    4 34 133 David Hale Offensive Tackle Weber State
    6 40 206 Haruki Nakamura Safety Cincinnati
    7 8 215 Justin Harper Wide Receiver Virginia Tech
    7 33 240 Allen Patrick Running Back Oklahoma


    2009 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    1 23 23 Michael Oher Offensive Tackle Mississippi
    2 25 57 Paul Kruger Defensive End Utah
    3 24 88 Lardarius Webb Cornerback Nicholls State
    5 1 137 Jason Phillips Linebacker Texas Christian
    5 13 149 Davon Drew Tight End East Carolina
    6 12 185 Cedric Peerman Running Back Virginia


    2010 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    2 11 43 Sergio Kindle Linebacker Texas
    2 25 57 Terrence Cody Defensive Tackle Alabama
    3 6 70 Ed Dickson Tight End Oregon
    4 16 114 Dennis Pitta Tight End BYU
    5 25 156 David Reed Wide Receiver Utah
    5 26 157 Arthur Jones Defensive Tackle Syracuse
    6 25 194 Ramon Harewood Offensive Tackle Morehouse


    2011 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    1 27 27 Jimmy Smith Cornerback Colorado
    2 26 58 Torrey Smith Wide Receiver Maryland
    3 21 85 Jah Reid Offensive Tackle Central Florida
    4 26 123 Tandon Doss Wide Receiver Indiana
    5 33 164 Chykie Brown Cornerback Texas
    5 34 165 Pernell McPhee Defensive End Mississippi State
    6 15 180 Tyrod Taylor Quarterback Virginia Tech
    7 22 225 Anthony Allen Running Back Georgia Tech


    2012 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    2 3 35 Courtney Upshaw Linebacker Alabama
    2 28 60 Kelechi Osemele Offensive Tackle Iowa State
    3 21 84 Bernard Pierce Running Back Temple
    4 3 98 Gino Gradkowski Guard Delaware
    4 35 130 Christian Thompson Safety South Carolina State
    5 34 169 Asa Jackson Cornerback Cal Poly
    6 28 198 Tommy Streeter Wide Receiver Miami (FL)
    7 29 236 DeAngelo Tyson Defensive End Georgia


    2013 Draft
    Round Pick # Overall Name Position College
    1 32 32 Matt Elam Safety Florida
    2 24 56 ]Arthur Brown Linebacker Kansas State
    3 32 94 Brandon Williams Defensive Tackle Missouri Southern State
    4 32 129 John Simon Defensive End Ohio State
    4 33 130 Kyle Juszczyk Fullback Harvard
    5 35 168 Ricky Wagner Offensive Tackle Wisconsin
    6 32 200 Kapron Lewis-Moore Defensive End Notre Dame
    6 35 203 Ryan Jensen Offensive center Colorado State-Pueblo
    7 32 238 Aaron Mellette Wide Receiver Elon
    7 41 247 Marc Anthony Cornerback California


    Bolded = Solid contributor
    Italicis = Bust
    Underlined = TBD


    Thoughts?




  4. #274
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    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post
    There have been numerous 2-5th round busts from small and large schools these past few seasons.A few of the analyst said the TE the Ravens drafted was projected to go in the 6th or 7th round. Why reach at the end of round 3? Have any of the compensation picks they've been getting these past few years amounted to anything?
    It's the Ravens' board that's important, not the analysts' board. If the guy was at the top of the Ravens' board and they wanted him, why take a chance and wait until a later round just to miss out? That would be contrary to how they build through the draft. As for your other question:

    Compensatory Picks, Harbaugh Era

    2014

    Crockett Gilmore
    Brent Urban
    Lorenzo Taliaferro
    John Urschel

    2013

    Kyle Juszczyk
    Ricky Wagner
    Ryan Jensen
    Marc Anthony

    2012

    Christian Thompson
    Asa Jackson

    2011

    Chyckie Brown
    Pernell McPhee

    2010

    no compensatory picks

    2009

    no compensatory picks




  5. #275
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    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by TDL1000 View Post
    Thoughts?
    It's hard to call any 6th or 7th rounder a bust when the odds are already against the player making the team. You hear about the success stories, but those are in the minority.




  6. #276

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    It's hard to call any 6th or 7th rounder a bust when the odds are already against the player making the team. You hear about the success stories, but those are in the minority.
    I totally agree.Had no idea how to classify them.The 2010 Draft wasn't one of the teams better ones.




  7. #277
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    Re: Worst draft ever

    Here is a really interesting stat I just found while surfing around. The article is dated right after last year's draft, so it refers to 2012 Opening Day Rosters:

    "Based on a break-down of NFL rosters from last year's cut-down date (the day rosters are first trimmed to 53 players), there are almost 50 percent more undrafted free agents in the NFL as there are first-round picks, a margin of 412-277."

    http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootba...ack_chiba.html

    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.




  8. #278

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    Here is a really interesting stat I just found while surfing around. The article is dated right after last year's draft, so it refers to 2012 Opening Day Rosters:

    "Based on a break-down of NFL rosters from last year's cut-down date (the day rosters are first trimmed to 53 players), there are almost 50 percent more undrafted free agents in the NFL as there are first-round picks, a margin of 412-277."

    http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootba...ack_chiba.html

    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.
    For all those who complain about trading down in 2012 the only decent guy at 29 was Harrison Smith.




  9. #279
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    This is how I'd rate each class since 2008, and this takes into account where the team was picking (which many people forget to factor in).

    2008-Great (At the end of the day, we found our first franchise Qb who turned out to be a SB mvp. Despite him maybe being done, we landed an all pro RB in the process, that to me is a great draft.)

    2009- Average (Oher turned out to be a below par pick. Kruger turned our to be a nice pick when he ended up having two solid years in Baltimore before getting overpaid in Cleveland. Webb was obviously the best pick from this class, and is a pro bowl calibre corner.)

    2010 - Bad (If it wasn't for Dennis Pitta and Arthur Jones, this draft would have been terrible. We missed out on some talented players, and our first three picks all turned out to be major busts. Pitta and Jones saved this from being atrocious, but sadly Jones signed with Indi.)

    2011- Good (Oz nailed it with his first two picks. Jimmy Smith is on the brink of becoming a shut down pro bowl calibre corner, and Torrey Smith was our first drafted Wr to eclipse 1k yards. Sadly Jah Reid and Tandon Doss bought the grade down, although I'd argue that this class could be upgraded to great, providing both Torrey and Jimmy become pro bowl players.)

    2012- Average (Still too early to give a final grade to this class. The jury is still out on Upshaw, and he appears to have little potential as a pass rusher in this league. Ultimately his upside is Jarrett Johnson. If he turns out to be as good as JJ, while KO comes back healthy and plays well at guard, and Pierce over comes his sophomore slump, the class will get upgraded to good.)




  10. #280
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    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    No one with more starts but there were linemen early on that are better than Wagner. They went higher like Zack. He was much better and will start same with Lewan taken higher but I wanted Bitonio in 2d who is also better than Wagner and could have started and like Zack plays more than 1 position on line.

    Ravens didn't even invite either one of them to interview and workout. Even Morgan Moses might have been better than Wagner, certainly bigger.

    We just have to hope Wagner is good because that's all we got. Skins got praise for taking Moses where they did.
    None of those players, including Martin, were available when the Ravens drafted, and we have no idea what they may have tried to do to land a WR or a OL. As I noted earlier, you can't waltz without a partner.

    As for whether or not any of those players are better than Wagner in the NFL: none of us has any idea. Unlike any draftee this year, Wagner at least as been in the league for a year.




  11. #281

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.
    I don't think this conclusion can be made from the data you provided. For many reasons.

    The most obvious being that UDFA "stick" rates have nothing to do with late round picks (who may or not be traded to improve early picks). For that comparison you should use the actual late-round pick "stick" rates. Technically, the more you "combine" late draft picks into a lesser number of higher draft picks, the more UDFAs you can sign, not that I would argue this is a good reason to combine picks.

    And filling in STs as cheaply as possible means that some of these late round "stick" picks are players that are drafted with the intention of STs and emergency skill position back-ups only. Or specialty players like Kickers and Punters and long-snappers. Since resources are limited (in terms of salary cap and draft picks) these "less important" roster spots should be economized as much as possible. In other words, using a 1st round pick at QB when you have a good young QB is dumb. Likewise using a 1st round pick on kicker/punter is generally dumb. Likewise using a high round pick on a spot where you have a logjam of good young players, just to have the guy be a STer for years is also dubious. In short, late round picks are not just for dice-rolls on possible studs, they are also for filling out your roster of the specialty positions and deep back-ups.

    And in terms of the data on UDFAs in the league vs. 1st round draft picks, I am actually surprised it is not an even greater difference. And that is because teams are allowed to expand their rosters by more than two dozen every offseason, and draft picks and net FA gains are relatively limited.

    In short, there are 32 first round draft picks each year and likely 400+ UDFAs signed each year to start camp. If 50 of those 400+ make the rosters, likely in the specialty roles, then we get to your numbers. And I am sure the turnover is higher (i.e. careers shorter) for these UDFAs, though I would like to see the data; it would go a ways to see how many UDFAs turn into great players with lasting careers, and how many of these "UDFAs in league" category are rent-a-Special-Teamers.




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