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  1. #277
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    San Dimas, CA
    Posts
    6,404

    Re: Worst draft ever



    Here is a really interesting stat I just found while surfing around. The article is dated right after last year's draft, so it refers to 2012 Opening Day Rosters:

    "Based on a break-down of NFL rosters from last year's cut-down date (the day rosters are first trimmed to 53 players), there are almost 50 percent more undrafted free agents in the NFL as there are first-round picks, a margin of 412-277."

    http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootba...ack_chiba.html

    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.




  2. #278

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    Here is a really interesting stat I just found while surfing around. The article is dated right after last year's draft, so it refers to 2012 Opening Day Rosters:

    "Based on a break-down of NFL rosters from last year's cut-down date (the day rosters are first trimmed to 53 players), there are almost 50 percent more undrafted free agents in the NFL as there are first-round picks, a margin of 412-277."

    http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootba...ack_chiba.html

    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.
    For all those who complain about trading down in 2012 the only decent guy at 29 was Harrison Smith.




  3. #279
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    "Merry old England"
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    9,236
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    This is how I'd rate each class since 2008, and this takes into account where the team was picking (which many people forget to factor in).

    2008-Great (At the end of the day, we found our first franchise Qb who turned out to be a SB mvp. Despite him maybe being done, we landed an all pro RB in the process, that to me is a great draft.)

    2009- Average (Oher turned out to be a below par pick. Kruger turned our to be a nice pick when he ended up having two solid years in Baltimore before getting overpaid in Cleveland. Webb was obviously the best pick from this class, and is a pro bowl calibre corner.)

    2010 - Bad (If it wasn't for Dennis Pitta and Arthur Jones, this draft would have been terrible. We missed out on some talented players, and our first three picks all turned out to be major busts. Pitta and Jones saved this from being atrocious, but sadly Jones signed with Indi.)

    2011- Good (Oz nailed it with his first two picks. Jimmy Smith is on the brink of becoming a shut down pro bowl calibre corner, and Torrey Smith was our first drafted Wr to eclipse 1k yards. Sadly Jah Reid and Tandon Doss bought the grade down, although I'd argue that this class could be upgraded to great, providing both Torrey and Jimmy become pro bowl players.)

    2012- Average (Still too early to give a final grade to this class. The jury is still out on Upshaw, and he appears to have little potential as a pass rusher in this league. Ultimately his upside is Jarrett Johnson. If he turns out to be as good as JJ, while KO comes back healthy and plays well at guard, and Pierce over comes his sophomore slump, the class will get upgraded to good.)




  4. #280

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    No one with more starts but there were linemen early on that are better than Wagner. They went higher like Zack. He was much better and will start same with Lewan taken higher but I wanted Bitonio in 2d who is also better than Wagner and could have started and like Zack plays more than 1 position on line.

    Ravens didn't even invite either one of them to interview and workout. Even Morgan Moses might have been better than Wagner, certainly bigger.

    We just have to hope Wagner is good because that's all we got. Skins got praise for taking Moses where they did.
    None of those players, including Martin, were available when the Ravens drafted, and we have no idea what they may have tried to do to land a WR or a OL. As I noted earlier, you can't waltz without a partner.

    As for whether or not any of those players are better than Wagner in the NFL: none of us has any idea. Unlike any draftee this year, Wagner at least as been in the league for a year.




  5. #281

    Re: Worst draft ever

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    So for all of the posters who think the Ravens should have traded multiple picks to move up in the first round, the statisitcs don't support that plan of action. More picks results in a better chance of hitting on one, and working the phones to get the right UDFAs pays off. Interesting.
    I don't think this conclusion can be made from the data you provided. For many reasons.

    The most obvious being that UDFA "stick" rates have nothing to do with late round picks (who may or not be traded to improve early picks). For that comparison you should use the actual late-round pick "stick" rates. Technically, the more you "combine" late draft picks into a lesser number of higher draft picks, the more UDFAs you can sign, not that I would argue this is a good reason to combine picks.

    And filling in STs as cheaply as possible means that some of these late round "stick" picks are players that are drafted with the intention of STs and emergency skill position back-ups only. Or specialty players like Kickers and Punters and long-snappers. Since resources are limited (in terms of salary cap and draft picks) these "less important" roster spots should be economized as much as possible. In other words, using a 1st round pick at QB when you have a good young QB is dumb. Likewise using a 1st round pick on kicker/punter is generally dumb. Likewise using a high round pick on a spot where you have a logjam of good young players, just to have the guy be a STer for years is also dubious. In short, late round picks are not just for dice-rolls on possible studs, they are also for filling out your roster of the specialty positions and deep back-ups.

    And in terms of the data on UDFAs in the league vs. 1st round draft picks, I am actually surprised it is not an even greater difference. And that is because teams are allowed to expand their rosters by more than two dozen every offseason, and draft picks and net FA gains are relatively limited.

    In short, there are 32 first round draft picks each year and likely 400+ UDFAs signed each year to start camp. If 50 of those 400+ make the rosters, likely in the specialty roles, then we get to your numbers. And I am sure the turnover is higher (i.e. careers shorter) for these UDFAs, though I would like to see the data; it would go a ways to see how many UDFAs turn into great players with lasting careers, and how many of these "UDFAs in league" category are rent-a-Special-Teamers.




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