Results 61 to 72 of 82
Thread: Cost to move up to #10 ?
-
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
TY
That chart uses Jimmy Johnson's old values which puts a high premium on early picks and a low value on later ones
First pick is worth 3000, last pick is worth 0.4
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective did an analysis and came up with their own chart values
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/
But as an old auctioneer from Boring Md once told me, you want to know the real value? Put it in an auction, what it sells for is what it is worth. Picks are worth what you can get for them .... someone wants somebody bad enough they pay.at one point of my life I was exactly Pi years old
-
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
I don't see it happening, no matter the cost. Ozzie covets picks. If I were a betting man I would wager he trades back rather than stand pat or trade up, especially since this is supposedly a deep draft. I for one would rather he trade up and grab a game changer for once. We haven't drafted a player who keeps other coordinators up at night since Rice in '08.
-
05-05-2014, 02:51 PM #63Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Jun 2011
- Location
- New York City
- Posts
- 37,662
- Blog Entries
- 4
-
05-05-2014, 03:23 PM #64Pro Bowl Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2013
- Posts
- 1,387
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
The mantra - "Ozzie covets picks!" Too bad he's not better at selecting players. Look at the track record - Ozzie is not the wizard that people maintain he is. He is no better or no worse than most of the other GMs in the league - except for maybe the Browns and a couple of other bottom dwellers.
-
05-05-2014, 03:26 PM #65Pro Bowl Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2013
- Posts
- 1,387
-
05-05-2014, 03:32 PM #66
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
As long as its not for evans.
-
05-05-2014, 03:39 PM #67Veteran Poster
- Join Date
- Oct 2011
- Posts
- 4,553
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
I think the Jimmy Johnson chart is a bit obsolete, which is why the trade values have seemed less balanced more often in the recent years than the past. In general, I think the curve is thought to be a bit flatter now, with the 2nd and 3rd round picks gaining a bit more value while the top end of the first round losing a bit of value from Johnson's chart. I don't see much evidence there has been a gain of perceived value for the later round picks.
But the Harvard analysis is still worse (than Johnson's chart), imo.
For one thing it is entirely predicated on PFR's wildly subjective CAV numbers (for non-skill positions the 'numbers' are nearly worthless, imo).
But most importantly, it does not in any way address the fact that the ultimate goal of NFL GMs is to maximize the utility of the limited group of players that see the field not maximize some metric of combined CAV's. Raising the quality of a benchwarmer by some amount while reducing the quality of your starter by a lesser amount can easily be a net loss to your team's performance, even if it is a net gain to aggregate team CAV. Likewise, trading the #1 overall pick for all 32 seventh round picks looks great according to the Harvard chart, but in reality is a terrible move.
Anyway, as Rxdoxx said, the 'value' of each pick is what someone will 'pay' for it. And it will vary depending on the circumstance.Last edited by Haloti92; 05-05-2014 at 03:52 PM.
-
05-05-2014, 03:41 PM #68
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
Too high of a cost. Stay where you are and trust your scouting process.
Never get in a fight with a pig; you both get muddy, and the pig likes it...
-
05-05-2014, 04:23 PM #69
-
05-05-2014, 04:32 PM #70Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Jun 2011
- Location
- New York City
- Posts
- 37,662
- Blog Entries
- 4
-
05-05-2014, 04:56 PM #71Pro Bowl Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2013
- Posts
- 1,387
Re: Cost to move up to #10 ?
I saw the Smiley Face and I WOULD trade the #1 and Rice for Evans in a heartbeat.
The Ravens went off the deep end on Rice - giving him the contract they gave him. Rice's best days are behind him. The Ravens were lucky to get 6 years out of Rice (and that's if you consider last year's production anything but a joke).
-
Bookmarks