Taking QBs in the first round- Why there could be a run.

**jonboy79** · 04-22-2014, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by AirFlacco

Very interesting especially if Zach Martin is taken by Giants and your boy from Michigan is gone. Ravens just might want to start grooming someone good to take Joe's place when the back end of his contract really hurts the CAP.

I don't think Bridge drops that far and NE has worked him out already so maybe they're looking for someone for Marsha to groom.

Just saying, ya know?

I was envisioning that we'd trade the pick...

We don't often get to draft as high as 17, I'd like to draft at 17 OR EARLIER. I still want Lewan at 12 or so...

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 04-22-2014, 05:16 PM

Mock drafts IMHO can be taken with a little bit of a grain of salt.

They clearly make virtually all picks based on need and not necessarily value, and I think NFL teams are getting smarter as Decosta has said.

I still only think one guy goes in the top 20...Bortles.

**jonboy79** · 04-22-2014, 05:26 PM

Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn

Mock drafts IMHO can be taken with a little bit of a grain of salt.

They clearly make virtually all picks based on need and not necessarily value, and I think NFL teams are getting smarter as Decosta has said.

I still only think one guy goes in the top 20...Bortles.

That, IMO is about the value I see...

But when you are a team like CLE that has a really decent roster, except for the QB position, it sorta makes no sense at all to pass on ALL the QB's at 4 unless you literally HATE THEM ALL!!!!

BPA is fine and dandy, but need pays the bills in the NFL. You can't compete without a complete-ish roster.

**Brien Jackson** · 04-22-2014, 05:30 PM

Originally Posted by Money227

We are pretty much on the same page. I think Cleveland is absolutely in love with Manziel. There is literally zero chance they wait till #26 and "hope" there is a QB there for them.

In theory it could make sense, but I don't see it working out in practice. If Houston takes a QB, they're going to feel pressure to get someone early and not risk waiting. If Houston doesn't pick a QB, there's a good chance they'll have their pick of the litter. Either way I think they're going QB with the fourth pick.

**Brien Jackson** · 04-22-2014, 05:31 PM

Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn

Mock drafts IMHO can be taken with a little bit of a grain of salt.

They clearly make virtually all picks based on need and not necessarily value, and I think NFL teams are getting smarter as Decosta has said.

I still only think one guy goes in the top 20...Bortles.

With quarterbacks, need is nearly equivalent to value. You just can't win without one. And even on those lines, if you're picking on value it'd be shocking to see fewer than three of the QBs go in the top 20.

**Brien Jackson** · 04-22-2014, 05:34 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

That, IMO is about the value I see...

But when you are a team like CLE that has a really decent roster, except for the QB position, it sorta makes no sense at all to pass on ALL the QB's at 4 unless you literally HATE THEM ALL!!!!

BPA is fine and dandy, but need pays the bills in the NFL. You can't compete without a complete-ish roster.

Specifically, you can't win consistently without a franchise quarterback. It's fine and dandy to say BPA, but when you're talking about something that's as essential to winning as anything that alters the consideration considerably.

And in Houston's case, I just think the sum total of their moves thus far points to them looking for a QB with the first pick. I don't see them taking Clowney/Mack/Watkins and turning a fairly talented roster over to Keenum and asking him to take them to the playoffs.

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 04-22-2014, 05:34 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

That, IMO is about the value I see...

But when you are a team like CLE that has a really decent roster, except for the QB position, it sorta makes no sense at all to pass on ALL the QB's at 4 unless you literally HATE THEM ALL!!!!

BPA is fine and dandy, but need pays the bills in the NFL. You can't compete without a complete-ish roster.

I don't agree with that at all. Ask Minny, or Tennessee or Jax if they would make those picks again just because they have a need.

They panicked, and reached because of need and now they are looking to draft another QB early...in particular Minny with the same GM.

There are more than 4 QB's in this draft, and some will be there later. Geno Smith lasted into round 2...Kap, Dalton...there are guys in this draft that will be there later if you have some patience and don't fuck up and panic

I get need, but you fuck up when you panic and more times than not, you wind up with Kyle Boller, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc.

Ozzie is famous for his patience...the one time he panicked, we wound up wasting 3 years of our defenses prime.

I'd argue that I wouldn't take a QB in round one unless I LOVED the player...not simply because I have a high pick and a guy who I don't believe in is there at a position of need.

**Brien Jackson** · 04-22-2014, 05:37 PM

Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn

I don't agree with that at all. Ask Minny, or Tennessee or Jax if they would make those picks again just because they have a need.

They panicked, and reached because of need and now they are looking to draft another QB early...in particular Minny with the same GM.

I'd wager a good chunk of money that their answer would be "no, I'd take Colin Kaepernick instead."

**Rxdoxx** · 04-22-2014, 05:37 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

But when you are a team like CLE that has a really decent roster, except for the QB position, it sorta makes no sense at all to pass on ALL the QB's at 4 unless you literally HATE THEM ALL!!!!

Yep, the question becomes who if any will be left when the clock comes around again for the second round, 31 picks later (Jax 2nd drops to 39).
That is the gut wrenching decision, does Cle take the chance that the 4 they would want are all gone? They could trade down a little if someone wants to move up for an OT..... but if they pass QB and take different they will continue the Sadness and over-reach in the 2nd for a qb

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 04-22-2014, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by Brien Jackson

I'd wager a good chunk of money that their answer would be "no, I'd take Colin Kaepernick instead."

And he went in the second round. Theoretically, they could have had JJ Watt/Robert Quinn AND Kaepernick...which goes to my point that QB's will be there later...and some of these guys that people have at the top of the QB list will be worse than some of the guys behind them.

**Ravenswintitle** · 04-22-2014, 05:49 PM

Gil Brandt ‏@Gil_Brandt 33m
.@jjbart100 At one time thought 4, now I say 3 (Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater). Carr has outside chance.

**Brien Jackson** · 04-22-2014, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn

And he went in the second round. Theoretically, they could have had JJ Watt/Robert Quinn AND Kaepernick...which goes to my point that QB's will be there later...and some of these guys that people have at the top of the QB list will be worse than some of the guys behind them.

I guess...but this presumes that you're drastically out evaluating everyone else.