Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
The draft thread is pushing 220 pages, so I'm gonna start this craziness in a new thread.

Here is a different look at the upcoming draft using a crazy, but not unrealistic scenario.

1- At pick 17, with Taylor Lewan and Mike Evans and Ha Ha off the board, the Ravens are agreeable to trade down as the next handful of prospects are scored evenly. The Arizona Cardinals come calling. The Cardinals have a respectable duo of WRs in Floyd and Fitzgerald, but have nobody on the roster behind them. With Fitzgerald entering the back 1/3rd of his HOF caliber career, the Cardinals are looking for a short term contributor who can play the slot and eventually be paired with Floyd long-term. With the Jets at 18--- the team most likely to take a WR---the Cardinals want Odell Beckham at 17.

Using the draft value chart, trading from 17 to 20 gives you a value of 100 points. The Cardinals offer their 4th round pick (120), which carries a value of 54 points. Ozzie says no. Ozzie asks for the Cards 3rd rounder (pick 84), but the Cards say no, as they should, since it carries a 170 point value. The Cardinals throw in their 5th rounder (pick 160-27 points) and Ozzie agrees. Even though technically he gave up 100 points and only got 81 in return, it's still a great maneuver for the Ravens since they now have picked up two extra picks with only surrendering 3 spots in the 1st round.

The Ravens now have the following picks: 20/48/79/99/120/134/138/160/175/194

2- Pick 20 arrives. The Ravens are zeroing in on a cornerback or FS as Pryor/Dennard/Gilbert/Fuller are all still on the board. But wait, there might be another brother connection coming into play. Ozzie phone rings and it's a popular trading partner of late---the 49ers. It's no secret that the 49ers love Justin Gilbert and have been rumored to be looking to trade up in order to acquire him. With virtually every team between 20-29 going down as one that could use a CB, the odds of any of the trio reaching SF are slim. The 49ers have 12 overall picks, including 6 in the top 100, which of course Ozzie knows.

By dropping from 20 to 30, the Ravens are going from 850 points to 620 points, which carries a significant collateral. 230 points is equal to the 72nd pick in the draft. Coincidentally the 49ers carry pick 77. However, Ozzie plays the odds that the 49ers interest in whoever they want to draft is sky high, given that the 49ers are climbing 10 spots. He also plays the odds that some of their picks might be more disposable if it yields a player who puts them "over the top in their minds". Ozzie asks for pick #61, which carries a 292 point value. The 49ers, while looking to make waves, are a smartly-run team and insist on pick 120 in return from the Ravens (54 point value). Ozzie sees that as a valuable pick that he doesn't want to surrender, and eventually offers pick 20 and a 3rd rounder-pick 79 (1045 total points) for picks 30/61/124 from San Fran (1036 points). In essence for trading down 10 spots, the Ravens get a late 2nd and a late 3rd in exchange for their mid 3rd. The 49ers and Ravens both walk away happy.

The 49ers take Justin Gilbert.

The Ravens now have picks 30/48/61/94/99/120/134/138/160/175/194. This puts the Ravens now with 11 overall picks, including two 2nds, three 3rds, and three 4ths. Look at it another way, by moving down 13 spots in the drafts, the Ravens re-gained the 4th rounder and 5th rounder that they lost by trading for Eugene Monroe (pick 120 and 160) AND managed to pick up an additional late 2nd rounder along the way (pick 61). So for the loss of 13 spots of in draft order in the first round, the Ravens got an extra 2nd rounder AND a ready-made, proven, capable LT in his prime. Would you make that trade? I certainly would.

I'll finish part two of this draft in a few minutes when I get home.
I like your #1 scenario but I posted comments from Bisciotti who said it's gonna be really hard to trade down this year because it's such a deep draft and a lot of teams will be doing it and besides, Ozzie won the SB recently doing it that way and other teams are copying.

Bisciotti expects Ravens to stand still @17 and take the best player at that spot. That has worked before too.

Ozzie is really gonna have to work the phones hard to trade down this year if he wants to trade down in 1st round.