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  1. #121

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year



    Sooooo I got a little curious, and as prospects (with drop rates being the exception)...

    Guy #1

    HT / Arm / WT / Hand / 40 / Bench / Vert / Broad / 2013 Drop Rate
    6'4 / 33" / 250 / 9.75 / 4.67 / 23 / 34" / 115" / 16.67%

    Draft year stats: 42 / 551 / 13.1 / 6
    Career stats: 124 / 1557 / 12.6 / 12


    Guy #2

    HT / Arm / WT / Hand / 40 / Bench / Vert / Broad / 2013 Drop Rate
    6'4 / 33.25" / 250 / 10" / 4.60 / 24 / 32" / 120" / 11.43% (same as Dallas Clark)

    Draft year stats: 62 / 973 / 15.7 / 3
    Career stats:112 / 1805 / 16.1 / 8


    Over their careers, both Guys are very, very close on % of his teams yards and % of his teams TDs.
    However, Guy #1 almost doubles Guy #2 in RZTD rate (which is Red Zone TDs divided by Red Zone targets) 22.67% vs. 12%.

    Guy 1 is Ed Dickson.
    Guy 2 is Eric Ebron.

    Did 32 GMs completely screw the pooch by not drafting Dickson before #70 in 2010?
    or
    Are Ebron's "ups" so high that his "lows" will be forgotten as he baits 1 GM into taking him long before #70 in 2014?
    or
    Something(s) else?


    Whichever the case, what are the specifics that give Ebron top-value at #17?
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  2. #122

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by kronusthebonus View Post
    Vernon Davis was a combine MONSTER that year, just other worldly.
    Indeed he was...and I'd argue that Davis has been a grossly under-performing pro vs. his potential as a prospect.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  3. #123

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    Sooooo I got a little curious, and as prospects (with drop rates being the exception)...

    Guy #1

    HT / Arm / WT / Hand / 40 / Bench / Vert / Broad / 2013 Drop Rate
    6'4 / 33" / 250 / 9.75 / 4.67 / 23 / 34" / 115" / 16.67%

    Draft year stats: 42 / 551 / 13.1 / 6
    Career stats: 124 / 1557 / 12.6 / 12


    Guy #2

    HT / Arm / WT / Hand / 40 / Bench / Vert / Broad / 2013 Drop Rate
    6'4 / 33.25" / 250 / 10" / 4.60 / 24 / 32" / 120" / 11.43% (same as Dallas Clark)

    Draft year stats: 62 / 973 / 15.7 / 3
    Career stats:112 / 1805 / 16.1 / 8


    Over their careers, both Guys are very, very close on % of his teams yards and % of his teams TDs.
    However, Guy #1 almost doubles Guy #2 in RZTD rate (which is Red Zone TDs divided by Red Zone targets) 22.67% vs. 12%.

    Guy 1 is Ed Dickson.
    Guy 2 is Eric Ebron.

    Did 32 GMs completely screw the pooch by not drafting Dickson before #70 in 2010?
    or
    Are Ebron's "ups" so high that his "lows" will be forgotten as he baits 1 GM into taking him long before #70 in 2014?
    or
    Something(s) else?


    Whichever the case, what are the specifics that give Ebron top-value at #17?


    I hate Ebron as a 17th pick.... i dont think the TE class this year is very good. We dont need to waste a 1st on a TE.

    KUBES doesnt NOT run a two TE set like the pats do...he just doesnt. Pats used 2 receiving TE's. Kubes uses one receiving TE and another one that can primarily block and run intermediate routes.

    If we pick up a TE this draft it should NOT be an Ebron/ Amarro type... Jenkins or CJ fedor... wicz or w.e fit the system more.

    I dont think we should go skill position with the first pick unless we trade down. if i had a gun to my head id take a WR before ebron




  4. #124

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Brien Jackson View Post
    Except we're not talking about not picking BPA*, we're talking about weighting positions where there are HUGE GLARING NEEDS over picking a second tier WR who won't start anyway (and, of course, ability to step right in and contribute is rather a big part of what goes in to BPA).

    *BPA is, of course, merely an axiom. Especially in the first round where you're probably looking at at least half a dozen players who have similar grades, the idea that you're not paying attention to anything but a completely linear draft board is naive.
    Not true, at least in my opinion. I think all three of Watkins, Evans, and Lee could be BPA at 17, depending on whether anyone falls. I'd also rate both Cooks and Beckham as first round talents (probably around #25 or so). I'd rank all five over either of the Alabama defenders. And there's another group of 5-6 receivers that could very well go before 48.

    I'd be shocked if there's not a WR available to the Ravens in the 1st 3 rounds that you couldn't make a case is the BPA. It's that good of a year at the position.




  5. #125

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by HbgPARavenfan View Post
    I hate Ebron as a 17th pick.... i dont think the TE class this year is very good. We dont need to waste a 1st on a TE.

    KUBES doesnt NOT run a two TE set like the pats do...he just doesnt. Pats used 2 receiving TE's. Kubes uses one receiving TE and another one that can primarily block and run intermediate routes.

    If we pick up a TE this draft it should NOT be an Ebron/ Amarro type... Jenkins or CJ fedor... wicz or w.e fit the system more.

    I dont think we should go skill position with the first pick unless we trade down. if i had a gun to my head id take a WR before ebron
    I agree. A very average bunch, they are IMO.

    I think we're mostly set.
    Pitta as the single-threat TE.
    Juice as the dual-threat TE.

    Still a ways to go in FA (maybe we bring in Owens cheaply to spell Pitta from time-to-time?), and we may still draft a TE, but if we do, I think it will be one of those narratives at the post-pick presser where Ozzie will say something like "...we were all coming out of our seats as the picks were coming in before us because we think we got a [choice adjective here] player in [name here]." Maybe something like ASJ still on the Board come our 4th comp.

    I think there are several UDFA types that will attract the staff. That guy and 1stAndTen will compete.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  6. #126

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizerooskie View Post
    Not true, at least in my opinion. I think all three of Watkins, Evans, and Lee could be BPA at 17, depending on whether anyone falls. I'd also rate both Cooks and Beckham as first round talents (probably around #25 or so). I'd rank all five over either of the Alabama defenders. And there's another group of 5-6 receivers that could very well go before 48.

    I'd be shocked if there's not a WR available to the Ravens in the 1st 3 rounds that you couldn't make a case is the BPA. It's that good of a year at the position.
    Building on this post, on Kiper's latest big board, he's got 4 WRs rated 17 or higher: Watkins (4), Evans (6), Cooks (15), and Beckham (17)

    Lee is rated 21st.




  7. #127
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    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    Still a ways to go in FA (maybe we bring in Owens cheaply to spell Pitta from time-to-time?), and we may still draft a TE...
    BPR, did you mean Owen Daniels (from Texans) ? ... Bc




  8. #128

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizerooskie
    Not true, at least in my opinion. I think all three of Watkins, Evans, and Lee could be BPA at 17, depending on whether anyone falls. I'd also rate both Cooks and Beckham as first round talents (probably around #25 or so). I'd rank all five over either of the Alabama defenders. And there's another group of 5-6 receivers that could very well go before 48.

    I'd be shocked if there's not a WR available to the Ravens in the 1st 3 rounds that you couldn't make a case is the BPA. It's that good of a year at the position.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizerooskie View Post
    Building on this post, on Kiper's latest big board, he's got 4 WRs rated 17 or higher: Watkins (4), Evans (6), Cooks (15), and Beckham (17)

    Lee is rated 21st.

    This is pretty tight.
    I'd make one swap on personal preference.

    Top 1/3 of 1st rd: Watkins, Evans
    Middle 1/3 of 1st rd: Beckham, Cooks
    Bottom 1/3 of 1st rd: Matthews

    If Lee had just the foot (like Demaryius and Decker) then I'd be okay with him as a 1st, but rolling in the drop% as well and it becomes hard for me to ignore that confluence. I actually think he has remarkable upside b/c he does have some technical flaws that he can be coached on.

    Matthews and Alshon are virtually the same prospect, and the latter should have been someone's 1st round pick for sure. Also, I highly value performance over time, particularly if you're a lone wolf (like Keenan Allen last year, and Robinson this year). Not the only way to look at it, of course...just my preference.

    Moncrief is on the 1st/2nd round bubble for me. Young and incredibly explosive. Still trying to figure why he feel off this year though.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  9. #129

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    BPR, did you mean Owen Daniels (from Texans) ? ... Bc
    Yes indeed. Thanks!
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  10. #130

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Not worried about Lee's drop rate at all.

    He went through a quarterback change (for the worse), a coaching change, and was in and out of the lineup all year with niggling injuries. It's possible he wasn't 100% at any point this season.

    Watching the draftbreakdown videos, I counted 3 legit drops from 5 full games.

    I wish I could find what his drop rate was in the 2012 season. The only reference to it I can find is that his 12% rate this season was worse than last season. This is the guy that was probably the best receiver in college football in 2012. He was completely dominant, and was considered by many to be a better prospect than Watkins coming into this season.

    I think he could be a value pick at 17.




  11. #131

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizerooskie View Post
    Not worried about Lee's drop rate at all.

    He went through a quarterback change (for the worse), a coaching change, and was in and out of the lineup all year with niggling injuries. It's possible he wasn't 100% at any point this season.

    Watching the draftbreakdown videos, I counted 3 legit drops from 5 full games.

    I wish I could find what his drop rate was in the 2012 season. The only reference to it I can find is that his 12% rate this season was worse than last season. This is the guy that was probably the best receiver in college football in 2012. He was completely dominant, and was considered by many to be a better prospect than Watkins coming into this season.

    I think he could be a value pick at 17.
    I see almost nothing special about Lee on tape, frankly. Quickness/suddenness/explosiveness doesn't stand out. His acceleration and long speed are both average particularly for his size and body type. His hands are not special; he frequently allows the ball into his body and doesn't have "pluck" hands under any circumstances. His route running is unrefined and I was shocked by how rarely he broke tackles. For a small, "shifty" receiver this guy very rarely gets unschemed/unblocked YAC. All in all, I don't see a 1st round guy based on 2013 tape.

    Lee's 2012 tape was obviously better but what I see often is a guy that is schemed into very favorable scenarios, not a guy whose individual talent made him unstoppable. He was often lined up in the backfield, in motion, etc. but never really demonstrated the ability to win on the outside. It's OK to be a slot guy if you project to be dominant at that position in the NFL but I don't see how Lee will be. I dunno, I might be missing something.




  12. #132

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    I see almost nothing special about Lee on tape, frankly. Quickness/suddenness/explosiveness doesn't stand out. His acceleration and long speed are both average particularly for his size and body type. His hands are not special; he frequently allows the ball into his body and doesn't have "pluck" hands under any circumstances. His route running is unrefined and I was shocked by how rarely he broke tackles. For a small, "shifty" receiver this guy very rarely gets unschemed/unblocked YAC. All in all, I don't see a 1st round guy based on 2013 tape.

    Lee's 2012 tape was obviously better but what I see often is a guy that is schemed into very favorable scenarios, not a guy whose individual talent made him unstoppable. He was often lined up in the backfield, in motion, etc. but never really demonstrated the ability to win on the outside. It's OK to be a slot guy if you project to be dominant at that position in the NFL but I don't see how Lee will be. I dunno, I might be missing something.
    You've given me a different spectrum through which to view him. Thanks.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  13. #133
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    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Davante Adams clocked in the high 4.4's at his pro-day today.
    Milk is for babies. When you grow up, you have to drink beer.

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  14. #134

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    I see almost nothing special about Lee on tape, frankly. Quickness/suddenness/explosiveness doesn't stand out. His acceleration and long speed are both average particularly for his size and body type. His hands are not special; he frequently allows the ball into his body and doesn't have "pluck" hands under any circumstances. His route running is unrefined and I was shocked by how rarely he broke tackles. For a small, "shifty" receiver this guy very rarely gets unschemed/unblocked YAC. All in all, I don't see a 1st round guy based on 2013 tape.

    Lee's 2012 tape was obviously better but what I see often is a guy that is schemed into very favorable scenarios, not a guy whose individual talent made him unstoppable. He was often lined up in the backfield, in motion, etc. but never really demonstrated the ability to win on the outside. It's OK to be a slot guy if you project to be dominant at that position in the NFL but I don't see how Lee will be. I dunno, I might be missing something.
    If you're a GM, you're drafting Lee based on last season's tape, not this season's. I mean, a guy with knee and ankle issues all season is not going to look his most quick and explosive.

    He doesn't have elite hands, but they're above average, and I don't think you'll find a better receiver in this draft at making players miss in the open field. He plays very similarly to DeSean Jackson. He doesn't have quite the explosive speed, but he's bigger, and much more advanced as a receiver. I also think his route-running is near the top of the class and with the fluidity in his hips, that's only going to get stronger. I can see why he was evaluated as an 'athlete' as a high school prospect. He could have made a hell of a cover-corner.




  15. #135

    Re: I honestly think the Ravens should double-dip at WR this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Brien Jackson View Post
    Comparing Ebron to Dickson is ridiculous.
    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...n-jimmy-graham

    Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk




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