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Thread: Draft Thoughts

  1. #16

    Re: Draft Thoughts



    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    Honestly, regarding Benjamin, I think he'd be better off putting on another 10 pounds and move to TE.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

    Now there's a thought!
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  2. #17

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    Please BPR, I don't know if I'm getting this buzz from your post or my morning (caffeinated) coffee... Bc
    I'm here all day!
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  3. #18

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    While he has just a slightly above average drop rate...it's like a percent and half higher than Jordan Matthews.

    I think most peoples issues with Benjamin aren't his hands, but the fact that he's a raw 24 year old rookie with one year of production and while he has great size, he's just an ok athlete and doesn't have the feet or suddenness to be a good route runner...at least for a while.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Didn't know they were that close, thanks for telling me. I guess Matthews just seems more fluid to me, more natural if you will catching the football. I do not want any part of Benjamin. Do you think with lees "slow" 40 it's probable he's there when we pick? I just do not think the value is there if there is an absolute stud defensive player on the board




  4. #19

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Re-capping drop rates for the greater good.
    Trusted public sources used.

    (NFL) Fitzgerald: 1.2

    Jarvis Landry: 2.5

    Mike Evans: 4.29

    Sammy Watkins: 4.49

    Brandin Cooks: 4.69

    Allen Robinson: 5.43

    Odell Beckham: 6.45

    (NFL) Boldin: 6.59

    (NFL Ravens) TSmith: 7.14

    Jordan Matthews: 7.69

    (NFL) A Johnson: 8.4

    Kelvin Benjamin: 9.68

    (NFL) Green: 10.09

    (NFL) C Johnson: 10.64 (Stafford's accuracy, his own extreme radius, hearing footsteps, and finger injuries all contribute IMO)

    (NFL Ravens) Clark: 11.43

    Eric Ebron: 11.43

    (NFL) Welker: 12.05 (His dirty little secret. He's been at or above 10% since 2010)

    Marqise Lee: 12.31

    (NFL Ravens) Dickson: 16.67


    Edit: Blue text was horrible
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  5. #20

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by JCroUSAF View Post
    Didn't know they were that close, thanks for telling me. I guess Matthews just seems more fluid to me, more natural if you will catching the football. I do not want any part of Benjamin. Do you think with lees "slow" 40 it's probable he's there when we pick? I just do not think the value is there if there is an absolute stud defensive player on the board
    Oh, he'll be there at 17, and probably at 48.

    I think Benjamin suffered badly from his performance on Sunday and it's not because he had a bad day at all.

    I think he is a victim of a lot of hype and sky high expectations. He ran a 4.6 40 which honestly, for a guy his size is pretty good and he had a solid day in the drills. But I think people thought...expected...him to run in the mid to high 4.4 range and to look more athletic than a physically similar guy in Evans.

    That all turned out to not be the case.

    So instead of Benjamin being this huge freak at WR, he turned out to just be a solid big WR. People will overlook his flaws a lot more if you are a freak of nature as opposed to merely above average.

    I think he falls to the back of the second/early 3rd.

    And BPR did me/all of us, a solid by reporting drop rates. Looks like Benjamin is 2 full percentage points higher than Matthews.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  6. #21

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    No prob. Threads everywhere. Couldn't remember where I put the original. I need to start using googledocs or something. Stats = exploration for me.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  7. #22
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    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    No prob. Threads everywhere. Couldn't remember where I put the original. I need to start using googledocs or something. Stats = exploration for me.

    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.




  8. #23

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbirds80 View Post
    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.
    hahaha...I'm not sure man.
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  9. #24

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbirds80 View Post
    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.
    Well, the raw drop number with Matthews needs a little additional context. I believe he caught 50% of his total receptions (or thereabouts) on passes behind the LOS, which is on par with Watkins but dramatically higher than most of the other top 8-10 receivers in the class.

    When a guy has that high a drop rate and only 50% of his passes are even beyond the LOS, I would frown on him a little more in comparison to the rest of the list (same goes for Watkins.) That contrasts with guys like Landry and Beckham, who have a FAR higher proportion of their receptions beyond 10 yards from the LOS--thus their "real" drop rate should be adjusted downward. Landry, for example, dropped only 2 balls in the entire 2013 season, which is outstanding especially given his deeper depth of target.

    There are all kinds of ways to contextualize the numbers, but generally speaking, they don't lie too much. Bottom line on Jordan Matthews is that "hands" are not really a strength for him, on balance--he can make nice catches, but he drops his share as well.




  10. #25

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Well, the raw drop number with Matthews needs a little additional context. I believe he caught 50% of his total receptions (or thereabouts) on passes behind the LOS, which is on par with Watkins but dramatically higher than most of the other top 8-10 receivers in the class.

    When a guy has that high a drop rate and only 50% of his passes are even beyond the LOS, I would frown on him a little more in comparison to the rest of the list (same goes for Watkins.) That contrasts with guys like Landry and Beckham, who have a FAR higher proportion of their receptions beyond 10 yards from the LOS--thus their "real" drop rate should be adjusted downward. Landry, for example, dropped only 2 balls in the entire 2013 season, which is outstanding especially given his deeper depth of target.

    There are all kinds of ways to contextualize the numbers, but generally speaking, they don't lie too much. Bottom line on Jordan Matthews is that "hands" are not really a strength for him, on balance--he can make nice catches, but he drops his share as well.

    Co-signed ^


    More general context below for the top guys (average depth of reception and average YAC).

    2014 DoR and YAC.JPG
    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the Draft

    Settle down. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco's Baltimore Ravens can beat any team, anywhere.

    Having fun talking football and tech stuff on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  11. #26

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    Co-signed ^


    More general context below for the top guys (average depth of reception and average YAC).

    2014 DoR and YAC.JPG
    From your chart Robinson stands out as value in the middle 2nd round




  12. #27

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    I've been seeing a lot of post about Ravens taking TE Ebron (mostly due to that ESPN moron Kiper). I think it would be a mistake to take Ebron at 17, the Ravens need a blocking TE, not another WR/TE (I'm thinking Kiper didn't expect the ravens to resign Pitta?).
    If Evans is there, it is a no brainer.
    If not...
    I fear Ozzie will draft a Alabama guy (Mosely or Clinton-Dix), who would fill needs on Defense. It is where Ozzie is comfortable. After all Ozzie has been a little gun shy on receivers.




  13. #28
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    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Puppy View Post
    I've been seeing a lot of post about Ravens taking TE Ebron (mostly due to that ESPN moron Kiper). I think it would be a mistake to take Ebron at 17, the Ravens need a blocking TE, not another WR/TE (I'm thinking Kiper didn't expect the ravens to resign Pitta?).
    If Evans is there, it is a no brainer.
    If not...
    I fear Ozzie will draft a Alabama guy (Mosely or Clinton-Dix), who would fill needs on Defense. It is where Ozzie is comfortable. After all Ozzie has been a little gun shy on receivers.
    While I tend to agree, look at the TEs that Kubiak has had over the years. None were the greatest blockers, but were pretty good at it. That being said, I think you can coach a player to block (effort and technique) rather than teach a player to catch passes. All in all, I'm not a big Ebron fan and I believe he may be gone before we pick anyway to be honest due to his hype (Buf, Det, NY, STL or even the Jets jumping us are possibilities). However if he've available at 17 and the top 17 has been picked clean and trading back isn't an option, I don't think we will be disappointed. Him and Pitta out there at the same time would be a nightmare for LBs and Safeties.




  14. #29
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    Re: Draft Thoughts

    I know this wont be the "sexy" opinion, but i dont see us taking a WR in the first. I could, however, see us taking any of the following:

    OL Zack Martin ND - 3 year starter at ND. Had a great Senior Bowl (we always draft Senior bowl stand outs). Could play T or OG. Has been compared to Marshal Yanda. DE Trent Murphy has gone on the record saying Martin was the toughest LT he ever played against.

    LB Cj Mosley Bama - Explosive LB from a Championship team. Text-book tackler. Excellent against the run and really impressive in pass coverage. Oh, and he's from BAMA. Ozzie seems to like those players

    FS Ha-Ha Clinton Dix Bama - Rangy safety from a Championship team. Flies to the ball thus enabling him to make plays. People always comment on Omar Brown and how he always finds himself "in the right spot," I give that recognition to Ha-Ha. While he may not be Ed Reed (lets be real, its not a fair comparison), I would say that he plays like Earl Thomas, which I think is worthy of the 17 overall pick.

    With that all said, I feel like i should disclose that I am Notre Dame Grad student, so I do have my biases. And as much as I have rooted against Bama, I have always come away impressed with Mosley and Ha-Ha.




  15. #30
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    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Gato_Papi View Post
    I know this wont be the "sexy" opinion, but i dont see us taking a WR in the first. I could, however, see us taking any of the following:

    OL Zack Martin ND - 3 year starter at ND. Had a great Senior Bowl (we always draft Senior bowl stand outs). Could play T or OG. Has been compared to Marshal Yanda. DE Trent Murphy has gone on the record saying Martin was the toughest LT he ever played against.

    LB Cj Mosley Bama - Explosive LB from a Championship team. Text-book tackler. Excellent against the run and really impressive in pass coverage. Oh, and he's from BAMA. Ozzie seems to like those players

    FS Ha-Ha Clinton Dix Bama - Rangy safety from a Championship team. Flies to the ball thus enabling him to make plays. People always comment on Omar Brown and how he always finds himself "in the right spot," I give that recognition to Ha-Ha. While he may not be Ed Reed (lets be real, its not a fair comparison), I would say that he plays like Earl Thomas, which I think is worthy of the 17 overall pick.

    With that all said, I feel like i should disclose that I am Notre Dame Grad student, so I do have my biases. And as much as I have rooted against Bama, I have always come away impressed with Mosley and Ha-Ha.
    This is a draft deep in WRs, so it's not totally necessary for the Ravens to draft one in round #1. The three players you listed are not top 10 guys, but they've all produced at their positions. I wouldn't mind drafting any of them, but if they're all available @ 17, I'd like to trade down a few spots/acquire an extra pick/then draft the one who's left... Bc




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